The Eagle
-
Posts
2,080 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by The Eagle
-
-
If I can just make an observation - Im wondering what this SATSIGs has to do with the weather. It appears to me its more to do with certain posters aiming to make fools out of those who incorrectly forecast a cold snap. I can see where this is going later on in the season.
-
If we are going to pick on Africa then lets not forget our colonial past. The imposition of our systems on their systems whilst ravaging their economies, the clever way we increased life expectancy and lowered infant mortality rate whilst doing nothing about birth control.
We (the first world) have messed up Africa real bad and now we want to drop it? In so far as it being 'too dry' why did we become bipedal if not because of the drying of the continent and the move to open grasslands from forest. We ,as a people, have a lot to thank Africa for..... it was our nursery after all!
Birth control is a major issue here IMO. For a continent like Africa, the most desolate on the planet, it angers me when I see all these children born to a certain fate. Then again what else is there to do in sub - Saharan Africa?! I honestly can never see an end to the problem of poverty and over population here. I think we have passed the point of no return and I think many of us are choosing to ignore that reality. Sub Saharan Africa is completely corrupt and morale values simply dont exist anymore (if they ever did). Its horrific, it really is but I see most of the continent now as a lost cause beyond repair. There is nothing more we can do for the despot governments there anymore. They literally are criminals and they are the ones primarily responsible for the disaster we have on our hands now. The west has tried to help and we have failed. Thats our record. Back on topic though and tbh GW or not, natural disasters will happen.
-
One must also factor in the question - Is it climate change that may kill ppl or the over-population of the wrong areas? There is a fundamental difference between the two and I firmly believe its the latter. Africa has been hot and dry for as long as it has existed either side of the conveyor belt of moisture in the middle. 'Millions will starve because of climate change'.........Millions are starving right now and it has nothng to do with climate change and more to do with the fact they are inhabiting a forever desolate land.
-
I would agree entirely with that.
Meanwhile while Rome burns etc.
The temperature, for whatever reason, globally rises ever so slightly each year. One assumes this must cause a touch more ice to melt and one must equally assume that another fraction of a centimetre is added to the oceans levels.
Inexorably, at first, small islands in far flung places, convenient for the major powers to ignore will slowly go under water.
Eventually somewhat larger islands and possibly one or two areas of mainland may start to suffer the same fate.
Eventually more populated areas, heaven forbid, in the richer nations areas MAY begin to experience this.
In the meantime Rome burns etc.
For once I am glad I am as old as I am and will not live to see possible widespread catastrophes occurring with most nations simply wringing their hands.
Sorry for the rant. I've tried not to get involved in this thread as its one thing that does make me very cross and also quite ashamed to be a member of the human race.
John
I see the point John but it would be stating the obvious that this has happened before and that Natural variation is simply occuring. Just one of Earths cycles?
-
You start off with a florish: 'drivel', 'ludicious', 'imbecile', 'crackpot', take a predictable swipe at JP, continue on to re invent GHG theory (but, then most sceptics know better than the experts...) and then, as presumably a clincher, bang on about Antarctian 'cooling' as if it proves something?
You really ought to read and digest this
No, the crux of my point is this conclusion that has been plucked from the sky in recent years that Africa would be worst effected and could kill 'millions'. Where is the evidence for this? This is suppose to motivate us to take action? Well - no and yes, JP does deserve a swipe after that interview (unless your on the other side of the fence of course). I have not rewritten anything. What I said is fact and that map of the Antartic - whats that big blue area in the middle?
Temperatures in the Artic are at early 1940's level - again a fact.
'Drivel', 'Ludicrous', 'imbecile' and 'crackpot' would just about sum up alot of commentary on GW from certain quarters and not from this side.
(but, then most sceptics know better than the experts...) The GW fan club have always been very choosey about which 'experts' they would rather listen too. -
Errrr enough is enough. I can't listen to any more drivel on 'climate change' from programmes like Newsnight a while back ( I did not know whether to laugh or cry at the ludicrous interview) or countless more.
It was bad enough when the media were simply urging governments or somebody or other to act, like some latter day King Canute, to "stop", "tackle" or "combat" Climate Change. More recently though, weve been fed regular slots featuring some imbecile called "ethical man" and his crackpot wife. But Newsnight really plumbed the depths for me as to just how low the whole argument is going. I am referring to the 'debate' between some token presence from the aviation industry and what appeared - from the level of his argument- to be a particularly bolshie 10 year old. It was chaired by Jeremy Paxman (who seems to have taken to 'Climate Change' like a duck to water) who's clearly getting madder by the day.
Anyway at some point, Paxman asked what must be the stupidest question ever which went something like "Why should millions of Africans die just because 'we' want to travel abroad on holiday?" What!!. Where on earth does this come from? I can only assume from some study with the usual plethora of 'could bes', 'may bes' and 'up tos'. So Africa im assuming is first and worst place hit? Really? Perhaps, however the atmosphere in the tropics, including Africa, consists of high concentrations of water vapour - the dominant greenhouse gas - oh its true.... The absorption bands of water vapour overlap those of carbon dioxide. Hence the addition of CO2 will not have the same impact as it might in other parts of the world. Also - radiation energy and therefore wavelength varies as a function of the temperature of the emitting body. Basically the higher the temperature - the shorter the wavelength of the emitted radiation. Peak CO2 absorption wavelengths occur at colder temperatures, i.e. in the extreme latitudes towards the poles. In a nutshell CO2 should, theoretically, be most effective in the cold dry regions of the Arctic and the Antarctic. Ah - I hear you cry - isn't this exactly what's happening. Well - Yes and No. The Arctic has certainly warmed in the past 30 years, but it has only just reached the temperatures it reached in the 1940s. Check GISS station data for confirmation. The Antarctic, on the other hand, has actually cooled over the past 3 decades. Forget what you hear about Antarctic warming. This only refers to the Antarctic Peninsula - a small finger of land which juts out into the Southern Ocean. The climate of the Antarctic Peninsula is extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in ocean circulation. The large mass of the Antarctic interior shows a definite steady cooling trend. So a definate contradiction here. Who in gods name came up with the conclusion that Africa would be 'worst effected' anyway? Because its poor? More to the point - am I going to be to blame as a consumer here for deaths in Africa!? Perspective is needed here IMO and there is not much of it out there, particularly in media circles atm. Im not saying Africa or where-ever else is not going to see severe droughts or anything else, far from it, but it is NOT a fact that Afrca would be worst effected. IMO this claim is to emotionally blackmail the public to the tree huggers way of thinking - you know that were better off living in tents! (god forbid we would warm the environment) The message that the average Joe Soap is not only responsible for Africa being so poor but ALSO that we would knowingly be killing them too if we drive 'Gas Guzzlers'!! Feel responsible yet? Well I dont - im going for a drive
-
Its worth remembering that an 'average' winter would be far different to the mild Winters of the late 90s and in fact the MO do say this on there website. We should, in the 30 year average Winter, get some good, potent cold spells at times. Having said that though the confidence does not seem to be as apparent with this forecast as it was this time last year so I guess we just wait and see
-
whatever they say and whenever they release it some people will just sneer at it anyway.
Hi John, needless to say I was not 'sneering' at their 'forecast' because it could hardly be called a 'forecast'. They said it would be cold or mild!
You have to smile at that. -
Why did they bother with that one does anyone think?? And what has caused them to change their mind to such an extent after their first punt which still looks very accurate to me - 'milder and wetter than the long term average...' Moose
TBH the first 'offical' forcast was not a forcast at all.
What they were really saying was they had not got a clue.
I think, considering were that bit closer now, it will be more interesting. Maybe they will split it in two. Mild first, colder later?
-
Hi, hopefully the forcast update on the 1st will be far less vague then the 'we dont know' approach of the initial effort.
-
Hi,
Im not going to go in to specific Ice reports but rather keep it simpler:
Last year:
This year:
We are ahead in terms of cold pooling and there-fore I would suggest we are in a better posistion then this time last year though there are plenty of variables. This correlates quite well to the small improvement in Ice cover though its relevance is questionable. Im quite happy atm tbh
-
Rather unsettled across the UK at first with areas of low pressure moving east across England and Wales, spreading cloud and outbreaks of rain, heavy at times across most parts, with a risk of some wintry precipitation over high ground in Scotland and northern England. Some brief, drier, and brighter spells are also possible at times, mainly across northern parts of the UK. It is also likely to be windy at times with some gales possible in exposed places. Later in the period there may be a trend to more drier, settled conditions across the UK, but still with the likelihood of some showers. Temperatures will be above or near the seasonal normal in the south at first, but becoming colder here later with a low risk of some overnight frosts. Further north it will be colder with some overnight frosts.
A fair and balanced assessment.
-
Another good 06z - as usual especially at the end. It looks good to me atm. Certainly seeing the GH in such great form has me chuffed :lol:
-
It's a good debate Icicles, with some really good info and argument. Get involved if you wiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me You'd like a colder winter; what's your reasoning?
Paul
I hate seeing threads descend into pointless bickering. I never said I wanted a cold winter. In fact I said earlier I dont have a clue atm as to what way it may go. Whatever happens, happens, we cant influence the weather. No point in getting flustered about it. Im holding off judgement for a good while yet (and with good reason, since I got it so wrong last year
), not even the MO knows what may happen. No way anyone here knows. Im enjoying this knowledgable debate though, really good stuff. Everyday Im looking at how the cold pooling is going up north. I reckon it looks rather good at this point. Better then last year. How relevant a good cold pool is at this point though, im not sure. -
Updated Thoughts:
WOW! What an excellent analysis, I agree with BB though. A mild winter probrably favourite atm. This is an excellent thread. Im more optimistic now
-
I see the ramping has begun
Im definatley holding off for a good while longer before commenting on long range predictions but im cautiously optimistic after reading through some of the excellent detail on this thread.
That 1979 chart is quite amazing. Didnt last long though.
-
AMAZING! is not the word. It was a 3 day thunderstorm (we had sleet on the coast). It was unbelieveable!!!! Thunder and lightning for 3 days straight. I remember on my way home from school looking at this tower (cloud) in the distance to my north (just before it started) and then the lightning caught my eye and then I said to myself - this will be bad! Mountains covered in Snow, flooding etc but most ppl in ROI and UK stayed dry!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :blink:
-
The weather works in phases. Were just in a slightly mild phase IMO which hopefully we are coming out of.
-
Dawlish I think you & john are picking either of the 2 charts-
John is referring to the Easterly-
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060122.gif
S
Oh yeah, I remember that now. This was the Easterly we were sure would come off.
Alas it never did. Hopefully this time round we get a bit of luck -
Im concerned about the models this year because there seems to be alot more inconsistency. ATM we cant look at 168hrs and see it as even credible and no models agree even at 120 - 144hrs. I think it may be more tricky for us this season, though hopefully that will change as we head toward December. As regard the MO forecast, its far to vague really.
-
In regards to modern winters 2001 wan't bad but it cannot be related to any of the other mentioned ones!
Well, no, your right but for Western parts it was a fantastic winter!!!
-
I think many of us on here deep down expect another mild disappointment but there is always that slight chance another 78/81/87/95/96 could happen. It is this that keep's us all addicted to the model's throughout the winter month's. I know for a fact come November 1st my excitement start's building
Or even 2001 which was a good winter too.
-
One aspect of the current modelling I find quite encouraging is the persistence of height anomalies over Greenland and a strong slow moving or even stationary Icelandic low helping to draw down some of that anomalously cold Arctic Air into the Greenland High.
Arctic surface temp anomalies August
With the re-emergence of the (SSTA driven) summer pattern into September and the east-Atlantic trough-west European ridge, this will help to maintain the longitudinal pattern of Greenland High - Icelandic Low in turn perpetuating cycles of cold air development over Greenland.
The 06Z GFS demonstrates this quite nicely:
cold pool building.......
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn002.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.html
dispersal.....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.html
re-building......
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3482.html
This run has been used to illustrate the theorectical process and is no guarantee of what might happen but it is a trend worth looking for as we head towards October. Notice even at t120 we have -20 850 values. Repeat that cycle several times and a sizeable cold pool could have developed by November.
GP
A very good post there as ever GP.
A very cold pool over Greenland is not nessacarilly a good thing. It can lead to more cyclogenisis and give depressions a kick coming down from newfoundland which in itself is zonality. The only year ive seen really cold pooling over Greenland actually deliver for us was 2001. Its hard to know just how relevant it is B)
-
I would tentatively suggest that the offering from ECPC is like that because of a glitch in their system. I would further suggest, although I could be wrong, that it would surely be practically impossible for the entire N.Hemisphere to be below average.
Thats exactly what im thinking. :blush:
Also the relatively warm SST anomally's currently in the Atlantic. Ultimatley less blocking this year perhaps??
The GW fan club have always been very choosey about which 'experts' they would rather listen too.
Errrr enough is enough. I can't listen to any more drivel on 'climate change' from programmes like Newsnight a while back ( I did not know whether to laugh or cry at the ludicrous interview) or countless more. 
Moose
Snow and Wintry Precipitation Reports
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Sleet being reported in Belmullet so the showers following on, if you get one, will probrably remain of a wintry nature