[Hurricane Rita.]

Eh looks like its after shifting direction - more Northwesterly track. I guess the folks in Louisiana will be hoping it dosnt shift further. Storm surge is a real threat here. Cause of the anticlockwise cyclonic circulation it would be much worse for the New Orleans area. The eye of Katrina passed East of the city so it could have been much worse. Better hope it remains on its current course. :blink:

[NAO's Influence On Synoptics]

Hello Everyone

Over the last couple of months I have been figuring out what the NAO is, so ive come up with the following and i am just wondering is there something missing?

My understanding is the NAO is based on pressure values in the North Atlantic. The 'normal' state of the atmosphere in this part of the world involves a zone of high pressure - the Azores high- which as the name suggests resides near the Azores and low pressure near Iceland.

However sometimes this setup differs and you may end up with the Azores high stronger than the Iceland low or they might be equal in Intensity.

The index used to determine the state of the setup is known as the NAO. Positive, Average and Negative. A positive conclusion suggests a strong Azores high and deep Icelandic low.

Positive values are associated with strong Westerly winds which blow across the North Atlantic leaving us generally mild.

Negative values however point to a kind of sterile atmosphere where Northern Europe suffers colder winters due to the increaded frequency of Northeasterlies and Easterly winds.

Looking through the records i reckon its important to say that during the 1960s the NAO was very negative (and im sure everyones heard of those winters) :blink:

Then it really just rose up to around the early 90s and became strongly positive. IMO that could explain the slacker Winters. Its also odd that considering its effect on the synoptic situation IMO the Met Office seasonal till January says this actually could be a generally mild winter.hmmmmmmm Is the reading of about -1 for this year likely to influence the positioning of the Greenland high I wonder, :blink: and perhaps give us a Channel low and its Easterlies....If im missing anything please tell me

[1947]

Hi Darkman,

I totally agree.

The problem I have is that I have been only looking carefully at the GFS for the last nine months.

To me the synoptices have genarally changed. But I need to get an update from more experienced people on this site like TM, Paul Carfoot and Steve Murray, WIB.  to name a few,

Can any of you guys give an opinion on this?

Off to bed. Will catch up in the morning. nite.

John

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Nite then........ive got 1947 on the brain now. Birrrrrrr (you know that town in Offaly)

[1947]

Your hopes will be fulfilled.  

I am sure of that. (You are a lot younger that I) NAD shutdown!!

John

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Have you noticed the string of sustained northerly incursions the gfs is hinting at for the end of this month?

[1947]

Hi Darkman.

Perfect,

This winter perhaps??

John

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I wait in hope

[1947]

Could somebody tell me what the weather was like for the xmas of 1989.

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Looks to have been a chilly northwesterly probrably with wintry showers in the west and north.

Does anyone know of any significant natural event i.e volcanic eruptions.....that happened around this period to cause such a cold series of winters? :huh:

[1947]

Hi darkman,

I suppose the chances of getting such a winter are nearly nil.

However, when the NAD shutdown eventuall happens, 1947 will probably pale into insignificance.

Breezy Brum and darkman..... Im glad you enjoyed the read as much as I did.

Regards,

John

John

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Hi John,

I think this synoptic says it all:

[1947]

Hi Dakman,

I dont know whether you have seen this site. It give a great account of this rare winter in the UK. A great read.

Of course we were similarly affected here in Ireland.

http://www.winter1947.co.uk/

Regards,

John

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Hi all,

Thats a great read John, Cheers. It would make you wonder wether we would have the capability to go through a winter like that today without sustaining harsh economic consequences??? Truly a remarkable set of synoptics that year I want snowey weather this year but not as harsh as that!!

Hi Breezy i get the info from my grandparents too, some very interesting stories indeed

Also an intiguing article Mr Data

[1947]

Hi all

In 1947/48 and 48/49 were so vicious apparently we got our worst winter on record with unrivalled low temperatures. At Sligo the temp low one night in Jan 49 was -19.1C and also -19.6C at Glasnevin in Dublin. Daytime temps rarly made it above 3C. And relations have said it snowed through till June that year (49)!!!The snow was so deep it would have covered ppls front doors. I dont think weve come near that since but i might be wrong

[Saturday 10th September 2005]

Dry, low cloud, some misty stuff, not humid,temp 15C.

[Need Help On The Site/forum?]

It goes up each time you make a post, EXCEPT in the cafe area. Posts in their don't count towards your total tally.

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Ah thanks OON, much appreciated Twas a bit strange i thought

[Need Help On The Site/forum?]

Hello,

Just enquiring about the post count. Cause sometimes it dosnt go up (not that i care about my post count). Does it go up at the end of the day or is it just a bit faulty? Be glad to know

Regards, Conor.

[Friday 9th September 2005]

Thunder, very heavy rain, 12C, not humid.

[Synoptic Patterns]

Your recollections of Christmas remind me of my own experiences during Christmas Day 1995.

Northerlies are largely dependent on the specifics of the wind direction. 

A NNW wind is as good as useless unless you live in north or west Wales or the coast of Aberdeenshire or East Anglia.

A straight northerly favours eastern coastal areas, such as Aberdeenshire, east Northumberland, Tyne & Wear, Durham, Teeside, the Wash and East Anglia.  Other areas are clear and sunny all day.  This setup arose on Christmas Day 1995.

A NNE'ly will bring showers inland, often as far as the Pennines and eastern Highlands, but in south-east England they often struggle to reach London.

A NE'ly, however, tends to be the snowiest overall direction and can bring snow showers just about anywhere, although the northeast is most prone and the southwest least prone.

Alternatively, a NW'ly will instead bring showers to western areas. 

It is no accident that most of the really snowy northerly incursions are those where the blast lasts upwards of a few days, giving polar lows and troughs the chance to form.  This causes the wind direction to shift quite a lot, varying between NW and NE.

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Hi TWS. IMO northwesterlies are the best chance of significant snowfall. A northwesterly blast from my experience brings the most snow particularly just after christmas where it is fine (the snow) and can remain on the ground for as much as five days! It really is the best direction.........Conor.

[Friday 29th July 2005]

Cold and wet. Moderate rain. 12C. Interestingly the temp has not change in 7 hrs!