The Eagle
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Posts posted by The Eagle
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In the end, Icicles, you will, of course, make your own mind up. All I can say is, from the reading I have done, that the likelihood of extreme cold reaching these shores occasionally in your lifetime is reasonable. It is not impossible for the climate to cool somewhat, either, but there would have to be an unusual combination of several simultaneous, or closely sequential, events which contributed to a cooling of the local climate -forcings. Some of the forcings which have been proposed are possible, others are almost certainly not. For example; for a variety of reasons, I am as sure as I can be that the THC shutdown - rapid cooling/ mini ice age scenario is a non-starter. On the other hand, there is no good reason not to believe that at least some of the winters in the next thirty years will be harsh and snowy, though the probability of this diminishes as time passes. After much thought and reading, I, personally, have more or less come to the conclusion that the estimated rise of temperature proposed by the IPCC in 2001 is slightly conservative; in other words, I think that it is going to get warmer, on average, more quickly than the report suggests.
That doesn't mean, however, that I am certain; on the contrary, there are a couple of areas about which I have serious concerns, for example freshwater influx, where there are, as yet, no clear-cut answers.
I am sorry you haven't found the posts, in general, more helpful.
POh some of the posts are excellent and a good read, very informative. I was just elluding to the 'attack the post not the poster' policy which helps debate
My own view is one where I honestly dont know because im not even sure GW is man-made, ive my own views on that. Your points there are interesting but I feel its all theoretical anyway until we gain a far better understanding of how the climate works. We could be talking decades really because the amount of variables that have to be applied to all models is staggering. I feel it will generally get warmer but like you, I think that we will always have intermittent harsh winters
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I withdraw from this topic due to SF making such banal comments.
It does not do you justice at all SF. My ability to read is, in my opinion, at an acceptable level.
Yours is questionable.
In my post I said "However I disagree with your measuring the tallest person bit. First of all you would end up with a Gaussian bell curve, a sure sign of randomness."
You read this as "And I didn't say "measure the tallest person first". Your ability to read is little better than your ability to arrange stats into cogent argument SS."
Quick comparison: "However I disagree with your measuring the tallest person bit. First..." and "measure the tallest person first"
I think that you are overdoing it a bit. Your defence of all GW scientific research is clearly taking its toll.
Have a rest old boy.
At this rate you will appear capable of arguing with yourself in an enclosed room.
lol this has gone down hill a bit!. On the topic, firstly I dont understand why some are so intent to discredit the OP. He has a point of view and he is entitiled to it. Personally I dont quite agree but I keep an open mind. After reading through this thread im none the wiser as to what my opinion should be on the possibility of extreme cold reaching our shores in the coming years. Just seems like 'kick the OP' while you can which stifles debate
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Congratulations John, great picture
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TBH id be chuffed with another below average CET. :unsure:
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I stand by what I said earlier.
If daniel posts this stuff every week then that's over the top but what happens between now and 2060 is anybody's guess.
Obviously it's is 1000-1 on that we wont have an ice age by then but you never know.
There is a chance and never say never!!
We have already seen major changes in the last 5years with the warmest Summer temp ever last year followed by the coldest Winter in 10years.
This time lasy year we wondering would we ever see a CET month below the average again and yet we see several months this year including August for many parts.
So my advice is folk should lay off and let a guy dream if he wants to.
Of course it would be more of a nightmare really
Moan over I think all this drab weather is driving me potty
C'mon Sunderland you just signed a Champion today i.e a corkman!
By the way iciles Cork may not freeze over but at least we can win GAA games down here :lol:
I agree JS about the coldest winter in ten years (but did it bring us much snow!?) but really do you honestly see an ice age about to begin????
BTW GAA dont go there, im in a mood
(I thank god every day Cork is not the Capital) Then again if us Dubs froze over we would have to emigrate there - oh god!
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Theres maybe a chance of a cooler winter, with colder spells that are unusual colder because of the solar minium?.
Definatley Kippure. Last Winters CET I reckon increases the chance of another below average CET this time out. Definatley a chance
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Daniels article looks as feesible as a lot of other stuff I've read on here.
So why the begrudgery?
Your right, everywhere will be frozen - except Cork
Im open to all suggestions but I doubt a major freeze is imminent -
Nice bit of snow up here 24th/25th November 2005. Between 3-4 inches but the first time there had been snow in November for a few years before that.
Got a decent amount for November here too. I was very supprised. Certainly not 3 or 4 inches though, more like an inche in total. Would love a setup like that again though admittedly it was useless for Eastern parts of England.
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1963: 48
1947: 44
Two of the most spectacular years of the 20th Century and I saw neither
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I don't think that the current attempt to appeal to the masses by avoiding disenfranchising them with pressure charts, meteorological details beyond "will it be hot or cold, wet or dry" etc. is going to help in that area either.
If anything it's likely to encourage people above that level of listening to drop down to it.
A lot of the time I think it's the people listening and not the forecasters who are to blame, though there are exceptions, e.g. I posted on another thread a while ago where a forecast for sunshine and showers was presented as if it was going to be a washout, and so when it turned out bright and showery people thought they'd got it wrong.
TWS I absoluetly agree 100%. I think the beeb, ridding themselves of pressure charts if anything shows a lack of respect for the intelligence of the viewers. Pressure charts are vital in forcasting.
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In society, most people don't question things- they just accept that things are true because they are true. Thus the Sun can get away with printing such articles, knowing that many people will just accept that because the Sun article says so, it must be right.
Hi TWS If it was in the Guardian as SP mentioned would you take more notice? (btw im not defending The Sun, I hate that paper with a passion) What im trying to say is does it take an article to be in the Times or the Guardian for us to realise what we really already know? That forcasting is not an exact science. That its being held back by lack of funding or whatever or just generally not enough interest. That if an organistion with responsiblity comes out with a forcast for a particular season for example and it turns out to be wrong - that their probrably not going to be held to account?? Does the public even take weather forcasting all that seriously?
Criticism is fine when it's warranted.But no meteorologist ever forecast a hot August. The only people who did that were the media. When the meteorologists refused to concur with the story the media wanted, they deliberately misquoted them in order to mislead the public and create a sensational - and fictious - story.
Would you like The Sun to publish something you never said, and then accuse you of being useless because of it?
:o
No im not talking about that article imparticular. My point being would the MO not be better concentrating on the weather for a week ahead instead of issuing seasonal forcasts for the media to jump on?
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Point?
Well the point is, if the media had reported what the 'experts' had actually said, this story would be congratulating them on getting the forecast right .....
The point is it's very rare that they actually get the forcast right 2 or 3+ days ahead. This is where the general public become sceptical because then they are told by the Met Office that 'it may be a milder then average Winter this year' when they cant even forcast 5 days ahead! Surely you see the contradiction there and how that comes across as being Mickey Mouse stuff to them. Add to that some of the stunning cock ups and tbh he does have a point. Critiscism is not a bad thing, its the only way we learn.
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From today's Sun
....this is going to make some people angry
Headline: Forecasters are rubbish, so predict it yourself by Nick Francis
Britain really shouldn't care what the weathermen say, because they all talk a load of rubbish.
Weathernet's Dr Richard Wild said in July "Record breaking temperatues always occur in the first week of August "
And a forecaster at the PA Weathercentre gaffed by claiming "It looks like august is going to bring an even hotter wave of extreme heat"
But now the experts are having to eat their own words as most of the UK is washed out by torrential downpours.
The Met Office were forced to confirm summer is officially over.
Spokesman Keith Fenwick said " i can't see a return to the heatwave or the sunshine we saw earlier this year."
But what does he know?
The article lists 20 old wives tales to predict the weather
Can you believe it? :o
I must admit he has a point.
Then again its the Sun. I wouldnt buy it to use as toilet paper cause its already full of sh**
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Good to see a cool down in the SST's off the US Eastern sea board. Bad to see that warm pool traversing the Atlantic though
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Hi S.F.B. !
I would echo your incredulity but add that these 'disturbances ' do present downstream in one way or another. Maybe this ,when absorbed into the next weather system, will reinforce the Icelandic low that helped feed up all the heat recently and present us with a re-run and another bite at the all time temp. record!!!
Thats what im thinking. It is literally going to throw real heat into Western Europe.........
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'Valid for Wed 19 July 2006 to Fri 28 July 2006
An area of high pressure will remain close to the UK for much of the period, giving a good deal of dry and sunny weather. Weak frontal system will remain close to the far northwest, and here we will see some rain at times. During the period, pressure is expected to fall across southern areas of England and Wales, with an increasing risk of thundery showers spreading from the south. Temperatures mostly in the warm to very warm category, but locally hot across central and southern areas. Cooler in the far north.'
Note they dont say the posistion of the high. Also the fact that pressure drops to the south indicates a hot unstable flow.
http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk...look/index.html
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after watching (on the radar) a huge band of rain with bright echos advancing towards me.... it disintergrates into nothing much but drizzly moisture!
i need rain, lots of it... derby is a desert!, i need rain to water the gardens, i lose income big style if its too dry...
You may get something more significant on Monday but as you well know by now settled, dry weather is expected after that. :blush:
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Sounds promising
Yep, probrably wont get a better outlook from them for the rest of the summer. Heat and storms
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UK further outlook
Valid for Wed 12 Jul 2006 to Fri 21 Jul 2006
A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to extend northeastwards across central parts of the UK through the period of this forecast. This will maintain predominantly fine, dry conditions with prolonged sunny spells and mostly light winds although with a small but increasing threat of thunderstorms developing in southern areas later. Perhaps more changeable in the far northwest with occasional rain or showers accompanied at times by a fresh southwesterly breeze but interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Temperatures near normal to warm in the far northwest, otherwise very warm, locally hot inland with a small but significant possibility of very hot conditions developing but with refreshing sea breezes around coasts.
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Is he retired or dead :blush: , i heard of him but cant put a face to him
Nope he is not dead, retired. Excellent forcaster, educational and fun to watch
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Dr Aidean Nulty Met Eireann :unsure:
Gerard Fleming Met Eireann
Evelyn Cusack Met Eireann
Paddy Mc Hugh
Legend......I think Rob Mc-elwee at the UKMO is good aswell.
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Hi icicles & Vicking,
This NAD topic really interests me and as I am NADSDLA member one I just want to raise awareness of the likelehood and the probability of this shutdown happening sooner or later. It is really a worthwhile topic to discuss.
I am delighted with Vikings post not because I want it to happen but he shows the second dimension to this debate and that is one of observation of climatic change. Together with synoptic changes this is what will eventually show when the NAD shutdown effects have begun to happen.
It is important to realise that I am not saying that it is taking place at the moment but that there is a possibilty that it has begun.
Those sceptics on board ( and I understand this )can place a lot of scientific evidence against the likelehood of the fact that the NAD may possibly be shutting down.
What will determine if the early signs are there, are the likes of Viking and any other weather observers ( That was my previous incarnation on NW ,"Weather Observer"). They will be the first to hearald this change or not.
So please, out of respect, please dont dismiss out of hand, mine and others views and observations.
Both the science and the observations will determine when and if this change is occurring.
I haven't dismissed it John. Its an intriuging argument. My knowledge of the NAD isnt that deep tbh so I cant make an imformed opinion. Certainly an interesting concept
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Hi Paul,
This is the first I have heard or read that the winds could have more influence on the flow of the NAD than the water itself.
I would be more than interested to read up on this because up to now I thought that the biggest influence on the NAD flow was the NAD itself.
Have you any links to research on this idea?
Hi John, I cant quite put my finger on it but I feel we are in a different synoptical pattern in general over the last year. I cant really point to why yet but something is different. Anyway you seem to be leading the charge on the NAD and some are taking it to heart http://www.anglersnet.co.uk/forums/index.php?showtopic=5309 . Those fishermen always complaining
Anyhow keep it up -
Thank you PP
The lightning bolt is really impressive, thanks
P
Thank you PP
Autumn And Winter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Icicles
Interesting contrasts there Damien. The Metoffice outlook, I must say, looks far more credible to me then the ECPC outlook (which is below average practically right across the Northern Hemisphere). My own instinct is (and I have not looked into it in any detail yet) that this may be an average Winter, with below average rainfall and average temperatures. I will gather my thoughts and explain my reasoning soon enough. Its interesting to see the conflicting views amongst various organisations. It only complicates things but either way someone is wrong. Indeed if we do end up average they will both be wrong and that would be a step back from the UKMO's superb call last Winter. Since it they only go to January it would be hard to characterise an entire Winter on those charts. :blush: