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The Eagle

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    General Winter Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    If I'm reading the 06z GFS correctly, somewhere in the south (Southern England or South Wales and particularly higher parts like the Mendip Hills for instance) could have 48 hours of snow between next Friday and Sunday. That Low Pressure is over the top of these areas on many of the 6-hourly charts on these days.

    I think there is inconsistency there mate. The temp predictions simply dont match synoptic situation into Saturday i reckon :D

    The Irony Of Global Dimming

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    There's a Horizon on Global Dimming, was fairly interesting. Perhaps we should pump a load of dust into the atmosphere for a few years to get the winter we really want.

    Hi fozi, i actually saw that progam, a bit of scaremongering toward the end but nonetheless interesting. It really is a catch 22 situation :)

    The Irony Of Global Dimming

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by Darkman

    Hi all

    How interesting is the theory of GD, the process where by pollutents block out sunlight. I think everyone agrees Global Warming exists, only whether it is man-made or not is up for debate. However it is very ironic that the process which, some say, leads to Global Warming, i.e the burning of fossil fuels also leads to Global Dimming which apparently is actually keeping the Earth cool!!!! What a funny world we live in :)

    Members' winter forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Darkman

    %7Boption%7DSo mild it is then! :blink:

    Well here is what i think. The tools used in long range forcasting include a Climate Model, and two Statistical Model Forecasts, all run in-house for the organisation to which it applies, in this case the met office. They also use sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, snow cover characteristics during the early season(metcheck seem to enjoy using this one!), and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) amongst other things.

    For the period of December 2005 through February 2006, the outlook IMO is for a slightly colder-than-normal winter in all of Scandinavia, with the largest negative temperature anomalies in northern Scandinavia and interestingly off the south and west coast of Greenland. Higher-than-normal temperatures are seen in all of mainland Europe, the UK, and Iberia. The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in Iberia. This I think will be born out through a continued predominance of southwesterlies with the Azores high continuing to re-establish its posistion in mid - south North Atlantic and I reckon failing to migrate far enough north to ensure significant enough blocking for a prolonged Easterly over the these Islands at least. No, i think our highs will come and build off the North Atlantic ensuring cold nights but dry and not overly cold days. Weve seen this before in January's past and there is no reason to think differently this winter. I think the negative SSTs off Greenland will retreat although it looks good now, and mid Atlantic will start showing more negativity in temp anomalies.

    For the period of January through March 2006, i reckon the outlook is for a colder-than-normal period in northern and central Scandinavia, with the largest negative temperature anomalies in northern Scandinavia. Higher-than-normal temperatures I think will be in southern Scandinavia, all of mainland Europe and the UK, as well as Iberia. The largest positive temperature anomalies will probrably be expected, again in Iberia

    After a very mild October, it is likely the warmth will stay for most of Europe during the rest of November as a very strong upper-air ridge has dominated for most of the month IMO. This pattern was predicted for October with the warmest temperatures (relative to normal) in northern Scandinavia and the UK and the coolest temperatures (relative to normal) in northern mainland Europe. This relatively warm pattern is slowly breaking as the warmest temperatures slide off slightly to the east, and a return to more seasonal temperatures is expected i think for much of the remainder of the month.

    This marks the beginning of another pattern change, which will most likely bring much cooler weather to many parts of Europe in December. The dominant atmospheric phenomenon in European winters is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO is in the positive phase, relatively warm and wet winters occur throughout much Scandinavia, UK, and northern mainland Europe. Negative NAO winters, on the other hand, are generally cold and dry. I think it is indicating a pattern strongly correlated with the negative phase of the NAO. In particular, another dry winter is indicated for Scandinavia. Conversely, the climate and statistical models that I am sighting, the NAO in particular seem to predict temperatures are going to be 'colder' than normal but this method is unproven IMO and therefore I suggest that a warmer-than-normal winter over much of Europe, which is usually associated with 'wetter-than-normal' conditions, may well occur.

    My forcast for Winer , made November 07th and using actual November temperature anomaly (comlements of S Murr obviously) :) :

    One of the main contributors to the hot European summer i think was the exceedingly warm ocean temperatures in and around Europe. Whilst England may not have broken records, certainly in the west we came very close. The mid-October data revealed slightly warmer-than-normal waters in and around Europe from most, if not all models. During the past month, these ocean temperatures have cooled further somewhat but they are still positive, relative to normal, and in fact, it is apparent that the oceans have not cooled significantly in all of the waters surrounding Europe. These changes increase the chances for less cooler-than-normal weather this winter though i think this is unlikely as the signs uncanningly point to mild at the moment.

    As part of the seasonal forecasting process, numerous runs on what is called the Community Climate Model (CCM) version 3.6 in-house twice a month have been taking place constantly on a high-speed suite of computers. (im sure the met office has some of these!) The CCM, like all numerical models, is initialized with atmospheric and oceanic data before the run begins. Mathematical equations representing physical processes in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on the land are then used to predict the future state of atmosphere for the following six months. The CCM is run with two different land-surface modules, or so i believe (LSMs). An LSM controls the transfer of heat and moisture between the vegetation/soil and the overlying atmosphere. In order to quantify the skill of the CCM, you must have run the model in “hind cast” mode for 20 years or there about's for both LSMs. Based on the results of this long model i think we know where and when the model is or is not skillful for each of the two LSMs. The two LSMs each have their strengths and weaknesses, with one of the LSMs being more skillful in the warm season and the other in the cool season(Dec, Jan, Feb). Using this knowledge, the system intelligently combines the output from both LSMs to optimize the skill of the seasonal forecast which leads me to ask where did the met office garner its information?.

    For this 4-month forecast period, the climate models and climitologists generally are predicting a continuation of the warmer-than-normal weather, with lower-than-normal temperatures generally confined to parts of eastern Scandinavia. Most certainly I will not back the METO as they are already in backtrack mode from their recent press releases. The changes between the output from the November model run and the October model run are relatively small.

    So hence what we have seen. :)

    post-3922-1131335471_thumb.png

    Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry darkman I would have said that the SST are a lot better this year than they were last year mate, I wouldn't worry to much about the greens around the UK, it's the dark blues around greenland that are most encouraging, not there last year :blink: .

    It is interesting to note in the loop the surge of cold ssts out of western Greenland :)

    Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    here we  go again another news tabloid "freak weather brings 70 degrees today but big freeze will cripple britain"coldest since 63"

    The met office has warned this could be the coldest winter in 10years with others going for 63  and the forecast is based on the north atlantic ..........so on and so forth!!!!!!!!

    Well yes of course it is possible but theres a higher probability of you selling your tabloids when your headlines read as above.

    That aside some great pictuers of a snowbound west london skiers and such like ,  fingers crossed we could see a cold winter despite the unseasonal warmth and according to one of the forecasters 1969 holds one of the records for october warmth and that was followed by a remarkable winter :)

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    I think these headlines are foolish in the extreme. The metoffice and the press will look like fools if it dosnt come off :) I dont think it will unfortunately :)

    Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    From BT Yahoo news:

    "Weather experts fear Britain will be gripped by the coldest winter for a decade - and it could endanger energy supplies.The Met Office has put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert.There even are concerns the nation could run out of fuel - gas supplies are much lower than elsewhere in Europe.

    The Times says the government will hold an emergency meeting of industry and energy company leaders next month.

    Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, said: "If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch: businesses will shut down."

    The National Grid has reportedly formulated emergency plans to ensure supply is maintained to homeowners.

    Manufacturers and other large gas consumers will be required to shut down factories on particularly cold days."

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    This is all partial hype, whilst there are good signs this could well be another comical error of decision by the media :D

    Hurricane 'vince'

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by Darkman

    No worries Darkman :)

    Somewhere I read that hurricane force winds only reach about 15nm from the centre and tropical force 80nm....cant find where I read it again now though sorry :)

    A rather special little guy really :)

    I kinda think landfall somewhere on the Iberian landmass, probably not at hurricane strength though, but then with this little one, who knows!

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    If it intensifys further the synoptic situation would have to be reviewed big time. Also it looks a slow mover. If it did hit Iberia and into the bay of biscay......that could be interesting. Though that would only be a long shot :)

    Hurricane 'vince'

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Okay, I just read the discussion, they say it could theoretically have 65 kt winds in the eyewall but they really aren't too sure how strong it really is. Looking at it on satellite, I would be surprised if it was much more than 50 kt but in any case it is so small a system that it can't sustain hurricane status very long over 23C water tonight and tomorrow. The more significant question is how it interacts with the developing frontal system and larger low pressure area over northwest Spain. Then the whole thing could blow up into a more powerful storm than the predicted wet but not overly windy system being advertised almost everywhere in the models for Tuesday over the UK. There is a slight potential here for a screaming deep low on a different trajectory than the October 1987 storm so it's going to be a very interesting 24 hours.

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Hi, ive been lookin at Sattelite images and i cant seem to spot it......where is it exactly? :)

    Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    That made a very interesting read.

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    I dont understand. In the article he refers to government funded meteorlogical forcasters making cautious forcasts and therefore sensible ones but surley that does not fit his argument well because the met office are a government funded meteorlogical service! :lol: I do agree with him though about the ecentrics :p

    Hurricane Rita Pt3

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    The hurricaine has just been down-graded to a cat2 but was definitely still being reported as cat3 when you posted earlier :)

    <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

    Possibly flagpole, but at that stage a meteorologist from the hurricane centre was saying on SN that it wasnt a cat3 anymore. Its fuel (the warm waters of the gulf) is at this stage well and truly cut. Downgrading from here on in, its just a matter of how fast. :)

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