The Eagle
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Short but sweet. Great video. Looked like some storm.
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Hi Icicles.
Apart from the scientific theories that the NAD is beginning to shut down the fact that the atlantic has been generally quiet for the last 18 months makes me think that this change might have actually commenced
As you said "who knows for certain" is of course the big question.
All i know is that the answer may well be shown over the next few years. If it does not happen i will be the first to hold my hands up and say that my view was wrong.
If it does happen I will be delighted
.........for a while and then its survival of the fittest -
Hi icicles,
A real Irish response (Non commital).
If I had to pin my colours to the mats I would not disagree with you.
However.... I would say the signs are "possibly" there that global warming is happening and the NAD is "possibly" shutting down.
Hi John,
I was going to reply to the post first but then I spotted this:
'the NAD is "possibly" shutting down.'
We might actually see some real winter weather then Im more confused then anything about the whole theory. So many different takes on it and both sides think they are right
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I agree TWS; 3 indisputable facts. The three things that are in dispute (and fascinating the discussion about the dispute is) are:
1. Will the global warming continue?
2. What is causing it?
3. Can anything be done about GW?
For 1, I'd go for yes - the bulk of the the evidence points to a continuition; for 2, I'd go for probably humans, but I could be convinced by something else, rather than increasing CO2, being the cause of the warming; for 3, Dunno, until the cause is determined. Until then we may be doing things which will prove entirely unnecessary, or not doing anything like enough!
1. Will Global Warming continue? No one knows.
2: What is causing it? No one knows.
3. Can anything be done about GW? No one knows.
I really dont think we know enough about the issue for anyone to give a right or wrong answer to any of those questions tbh.
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"Scientists and various experts". It is so demeaning to some highly dedicated people, who spend years collecting and analysing data, then produce conclusions which always stress the limitations of their research. It is the way their research is portrayed and misunderstood which causes the difficulties and allows confusion. I mean, how many people reading this actually think that the Gulf Sream has been proven to be weakening? How many people believe that increasing SST's has a direct link to the number of hurricanes per year? How many people believe that things that happens with the UK weather, or climate, reflects the global situation accurately?
When making remarks like "Scientists and various experts", prejudice oozes to the surface. Did the "one such expert", on the BBC, say what you report that he said, without any qualification at all?
Good point about the research. To say its pushing limits is a massive understatement. As such, to whatever degree, their conclusions are going to be flawed.
Sadly in these issues you don't seem to get much of an open-minded discussion among the media. They have agendas, and try to twist evidence to back up their agendas.Those are probably the best sources available if you want reasonably unbiased information. I actually go on the NOAA website most days to check up the current global temperature anomalies and see where the most recent month ranked in the 126-year record. Facts are presented with little in the way of bias.
Thanks TWS, will check it out. :lol:
TBH Im finding it difficult to find a site that isnt biased. There mostly for or against climate change sites. Just one of the reason why the public in confused.
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Climate change cn be a good thing but no one on this planet likes change. For us in the temperate zones, I'd think GW may actually be a good thing, longer growing seasons and etc.
But for those closer to the poles and also in the tropics, even a 1C chanfge in global temps can make such a huge differnece, for those people GW is definatly a bad thing.
Worth remembering that climate change has always happened, but not at the present speed its going at.
KW, do you know any specific site that can give detailed, graphed presentation of the changes in the average temperature across the globe for the last century? I think it would make an interesting read
Also alot is being made of a 'catastophic' flooding risk in some places.................build your house on a flood plain and what do you expect :lol:
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That's why it's climate change...The day-to-day fluctuations in weather are largely irrelevant...
What is 'climate change'?. This word is being used like its detremental to the eco systems in a very negative way. The truth is climate change has always occurred. Its one of natures balancing acts. The whole impending doom thing is getting tiresome.
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Of course the world warms and cools Icicles and global warming is not going to mean a linear rise in global temps. I always remember what SF said: we are raising the BASE temp.
You'll always have months that are cooler then the base and months that are warmer but the overall planet's average temp is rising more so then it has ever done before, with 2005 being one of the warmest ever without even El Nino being present!
Imagine if we had another massive El nino like 1983 and 1998, that year would thrash 1998 as the warmest ever year in global terms.
Yes kw but there is an opposite to that effect, which in fairness the El nino effect is not a new phenomena. I think of it as a balance.
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That was then; this is now...Data tends to be cumulative in nature...
But, to answer your question: aye, there's plenty of data available; NASA, NOAA, IPCC all come to mind.
And, whilst we're on the subject of 'vested interests', try IceAgeNow???
I mean this sort of scaremongering (and that what it is, it gets sharper every year) is geared to suit vested interests. Its playing right into the hands of the enviromentalists lobby. Ive heard statements, like in 50 years time the Ice caps will be gone. Really? Well make sure thats held up to scrutiny in 50 years time when I know we will be debating the exact same thing were debating now - climate change. The term has been used so much, its actually meaningless now. I mean give us a break. We cant forcast the weather for the week ahead properly!
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Scientists and various experts are now telling us that the planet is warming up 'faster than ever'. Even rainforests are contributing to Greenhouse Gases. The effect of all this?
Well according to one such expert on BBC Breakfast, the Uk will undoubtedly get hotter and summers will be drier, with any rainfall likely to be more short-lived and intense, similar to the weather on the continent. Winters are likely to be milder and wetter with a decreased chance of snow, but an increased chance of flooding due to atlantic storms.
Any views?
Cheers
Just out of interest have they made this scientific data available? I think there are vested interests involved in scare mongering here. Realistically the world warms and cools in phases. I think were just in a warming phase. In the 70s the same ppl were talking about an impending ice age on the basis that temperatures were depressed in the previous decade.
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Wow that was some day of action. 6hrs of lightning storms and torrential rain in Dublin during the afternoon and evening. Spectacular
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Severe thunderstorms now effecting the Greater Dublin area. Heaviest rain in years. Lightning intensifying.
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Absolutely beautiful day in Ireland, not a cloud in the sky. I could get use to this
Currently touching near 16C -
Werent so-called 'scientists' in the 70s telling us an Ice age was imminent after a couple of cold winters :lol: What **** that turned out to be and the latest tripe is nothing more then scare-mongering, enviromentalist, 'we should all live in tents again' joke. The next Ice age will occur long after were dead and gone :lol:
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i dont think 'global warming' is the right terms. i agree the summers are getting warmer but i think that if the heat can get perfectly well through the atmosphere so it must be able to get back out just as easily. climate is changing but how long till the next ice age and we become cold again???
global dimming is very fascinating. it is keeping us cool and without it we could get warmer. but that may be a reason why we may be getting warmer. we are using less fuels and recycling more so therefore less gas/emmisions are being let into the air. so 30 years ago we didnt care about gw and therefore we had cold winters. now the amount of polluted air is decreasing meaning more sunlight getting through which then alternativly means more heat.
its just a theory and there are many more
*sm06*
Yes GW is a theory yet to be backed up by credible evidence
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Well it seems like a lifetime since last May, but in just 13 days time our USA Adventure starts all over again. This year we fly out at 1030am on Sunday 30th April for 3 weeks of long hard chasing. This year sees me in a team of 4 like last year. Matthew Hatton and Peter Holmes from Ukww will again team up with me and the new boy of the block, (The Rookie) Ozzy or Anvil Crawler as he is known on this board. It is ozzy's first year and I am sure he is going to fit in and love the experience. I cannot wait to hit the road and get the synoptic charts out and pit our wits against the elements with our Target location, and with the help of members from Net-Weather and Ukww I am sure we will be looked after on our entire trip. So why do we do it?? Well for me personally it is actually being lucky enough to witness the strongest storms on the planet form right in front of our eyes and get the chance to photograph these spectacular events, If the Tornado forms then that is just a bonus for me, the Cloud structure more than makes up for the lack of spin ups. The other great thing is the adventure of not knowing where we will go or who we will meet, some of the characters we meet up with along the way make for great stories along with the wildlife we encounter along the way. This year has got off to a flying start with way over 500 Tornadoes reported so far and not a lot in the best chase area, so maybe by the time we get there the real Tornado Alley may be firing. Lastly this years equipment is the best I have ever had and all up to the latest designs so I am ever hopeful that the pictures and Video I upload will have you all gasping with amazement (He Hopes) :blush: The video uploads should be a big hit with the forum this year also. Our team has every single piece of Hi Tech equipment you would want as a Storm Chaser and now all we need is the atmospherics to play ball also. I am sure Ozzy will want to say a little piece also but i am so looking forward to sharing the experience with someone who has never been before, the times we sit and wait and then the sky goes boom and big bases start rotating and warning go out on the weather radios, this for someone who has never been before is so hard to explain you just have to be there to sample it.
I am looking forward to getting regular updates from Net-weather and hope you all join in with the Virtual Chasing along the way.
Many Thanks
Paul Sherman
That sounds so cool, best of luck all :blush:
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Hi Carinthian,
Do you think that these high ice levels will have an effect on next winter's climate in this part of Europe if we were to have a continuing cool/cold spring and a not too warm summer?
I suppose I am looking for signs of a continued/increased colder outlook for next winter.
Your call on the winter past was very good.
Hi John, Ive been thinking the same myself. I want a really cold winter next year but I also want a hot summer.........conflicting interests there I think :lol: Anyhow I hope things continue the way they are for now SST wise :o
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Hi, just wondering if I could change my name? Cheers, DM
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I have that book. Useful
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Valid for Wed 1 Mar 2006 to Wed 15 Mar 2006
Cold or very cold at first with a mixture of clear or sunny spells and scattered sleet or snow showers. The showers more especially over north and east facing coastal areas, extending further inland at times, and perhaps also affecting exposed western promontories. Some heavy showers are likely in the east with several cm of snowfall possible, especially on high ground, whilst any accumulations elsewhere are likely to be slight. The showers dying out through the period allowing a more generally dry interlude to develop but becoming increasingly cloudy and unsettled from the west or southwest later with outbreaks of rain preceded by a spell of snow. Temperatures gradually recovering to near or even a little above average, except perhaps in the northeast where they may stay a little below normal.
From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html
So they are trying to confirm a wintry breakdown. Sounds good
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I posted this into the winter model thread earlier, which explains a bit about the use of the GFS beyond 7 days:
Wrt your point about having outliers at close range, I think you may be misunderstanding how the ensemble system works. It isn't simply that the control run is the mean of the runs. The control run is the run that uses the raw data input - untouched (aside from quality control). The other ensemble runs have the data adjusted - 5 negatively and 5 positively. This is because no matter how much data you put in and how much qc you apply to it, you can never have a perfect dataset to start. So by changing the data slightly, you can show a range of likely possibilities based on slightly different starting positions.
Invevitably this will mean that even at closer range, some of these runs will diverge - as they have different data within them.
Cheers Paul, I read the post in the model thread about the variability and it pretty much confirms everything the more experienced forcasters are saying on the forum. The GFS carries a health warning, like every model beyond a week in advance and my take on it now is that, that far ahead is best left untouched. I suggested that the control run would be better being the mean run not that it is the mean run. A valuable insight you have pointed out there about the raw data, certainly worth keeping in mind and perhaps even more significantly the different data within each run. Thanks again. :lol:
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But you can't blame the GFS just because some people are stupid?? :lol:
Never a truer word said Pete
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Hi everyone, I know this is a GFS help thread but I didnt want to open yet another topic on the GFS so I hope you dont mind.
Basically I dont believe the GFS should be available beyond 168hrs to the public simply because of the amount of ridiculous nonsense it comes out with beyond this range on a daily basis. It is, in every sense of the word, useless beyond this range. It begs the question though, why make it available at this range? Whats to gain? Absolutley nothing is the best answer for that I think. I mean, if you've had a few drinks, and want a few laughs, a great place to start would be FI on the GFS (not refering specifically to last nights insane 18z).
At closer range I find it very useful and the detail is magnificent, however the 9 other runs associated with each operational run is bizzarre simply because logic should be that the operational run is the average of all the runs, currently it clearly isnt. What this means as far as I can assertain is that (and ive seen this) as close as 42 hours you can have a cold or mild outlier. That would be my main concern when looking at a single run. Hope I havnt gone off the beaten track of this thread but I think its a genuinely important point :lol:
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the frost on many nights (and more to come) will have certainly helped the soilt temp situation, something which wasnt on our side last year!!
and derbyshire, its a shame you missed countryfile it was all about sheffield city- where there are 4 times as many trees as people!!
Speaking of frost, i live directly on the coast and i havnt seen frost like that this morning for many many years
Vid Footage - Bears Cage Close Strike
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
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Another really good video. Cheers guys