[South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Maybe wrong, but I reckon we've had our first ice day here on the IOW for a long time. The up and coming weekend looking very interesting with maybe another snow-fest for us islanders, but looking a little marginal at the moment. What is of concern to me however is the windchill here in the south, today felt bitter with temps just below freezing in a light NE, but come the weekend with similar temps, but with a lot stronger Easterly it will feel a lot colder. Windchill -12ish ?

[South Central England Cold Spell Discussion]

latest charts show a slight movement to the west for the heavy PPN , i would guess Dorset, Somerset, wiltshire now in the line for the heavy stuff.

This will change again which way we wil have to wait and see. i still think most parts of hampshire will see some snow and could still be right in line for a good few inchs.

Good luck folks polish those lamposts and keep watching.

Sorry to bring up the IOW situation again, but with the aea of prcip a little futher west favour the island as the small mild sector will be that little bit futher west as well.

[South Central England Cold Spell Discussion]

Nervous model watching times this week for all us IMBY isle of Wighters. Been such along time since we've had a descent snowfall. My main concern is that, although it looks like a Scandy/Siberian high marriage later on to-wards the end of next week, to me the orientation looks wrong for pulling in the bitterly cold Russian air. It is finally balanced though and I could be reading the charts wrong. This winter the cold scenarios that appear in FI seem to be coming off where as in past winters they never did.

[South Central England Cold Spell Discussion]

Always seem to miss out on a snowfest here on the IOW, but I do like the look of the charts at the moment. I still feel its a bit marginal, but fingers crossed.

[South Central England Cold Spell Discussion]

Evenin all, been raining ALL day on the IOW I'm watchin villa v liverpool atm and am sooo jealous as its hammering down with snow! y cant that be here!!!

Anyone know if there is any chance at all of us seein some the end of the week??

Thanks

Hi greetings from the IOW, all looks a bit marginal for lying snow for us in the near future IMO, I hope I'm wrong. Lets hope we can suck in some very cold Polar Continental air toward the middle oof the month, that should do the trick.

[What Happened To Global Warming]

Oh yes it has! as if this would get by some of our posters

We may well look back at this period as the one that showed how big AGW's influence is becoming if it is near overturning of the negative PDO phase.

Obviously once the downward pull of PDO-ve is over temps will continue on there accelerating upwards trend and we have already had warnings that the warming will return, with a vengeance, once any natural 'downward pull' on them is over.

Thanks Gray Wolf for your thoughts on what is a fascinating subject. It begs a question witch I put on a different forum a little time ago.

If the thinking now is maybe the -PDO is counteracted by AGW, then why wasn't this picked up on the climate models pre 1998. I would have thought that as the PDO is, by definition a predictable cycle, then this flattening out of global temps should have been picked up on in there forecasts in 1998.

[Sea Surface Temperature - SSTs]

I'm not going to claim to be an expert but these are my thoughts.

PDO looks fairly neutral.

Atlantic not really chowing any signal yet for NAO but there's still time for it to develop. This map gives a slightly different picture.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.10.8.2009.gif

Look for the cold pool off Newfoundland to expand.

Also of interest is the Peru Current which seems to be doing a great job of mixing out the El Nino and helping to keep it West based.

Is it me not reding the maps correctly or are the two SST maps show different results as regards the temps offf the Newfoundland coast. One seems to be positive and the other negative ?

['a Simple Guide To Understanding Skew-T Diagrams]

Just stumbled across this tutorial, looks like it's just what Im looking for, will post back when Ive studied it.

Thanks John :lol: