[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

whats this? early hints of pressure rise over scandinavia?

 

814day.03.gif

 

perhaps the start of something... more runs needed of course.

 

Also is this the beginning of a GH, or is it just the start of something that isn't really there.

A

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14]

A slight chance of retrogression up towards Greenland maybe ?

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

To me this is key to where we go next week to 10 days. I expect wave 2 activity next week will show it's hand more in the trop response. Jet diving south. Big scandi high to force westwards and the mighty canadian vortex weaken . Easy right?!!

 

I really do hope so, it does seem to me that a Scandy high teens to develop later on in the winter sometimes. I think what we are seeing this year is a very exaggerated setup to what we get quite often in our winters. If and when the steep temp gradient off the eastern see board become weaker, then I believe we maybe looking towards the east for our weather.

Sorry mod if this is slightly off top

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Quite uninteresting 850 GEFS this morning with low confidence and nothing to extreme temp wise.

 

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

 

Looks like the jet wants to dive south

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Hi BA, surely the stratt will be having some effect on the models at this point out in FI ? As the predicted warming signals are picked up on due to the flip flopping over the last few runs..? Sorry for the confusion.

 

FI the Polar Vortex looks very distorted..

 

 

Yes great chart there with plenty of blocking in the high artic and Greenland.

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Hope this isn't the wrong forum for what is a rather ignorant question.  I was just wondering that this present Bartlet type set up may do us a favour latter on in the season, if you like cold that is. My thinking is that with a strong PV locking in the very cold air, if and when the PV does split, would the artic air be a lot colder than if we had been tapping into it for a longer time.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps]

I was just wondering if this current spell of weather can be called zonal. From my understanding I thought zonal weather meant a precession of deep lows being formed off the eastern seaboard and travelling towards us across the Atlantic. This current set up appears to be a stationary low just to the west of us, sending us frontal rain up from the sw. Many thanks Pete Iow

[Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards]

The adjustment towards the ECM and a greater trough signal during next week is evident in the latest GFS output. Rain extending further SE with the greatest amounts towards the NW. This seems to fit the discussed schedule quite realistically out to 5/6 days. Some rain to end this week, quite a pleasant warm weekend for many and for SE areas into the start of next week. Then more unsettled Tues/Weds. Temperatures however hold up quite well and still reasonably warm by day over much of England and Wales at least

 

The AH seems to have been teasing us for some time now, the jet being slightly further north this year. Again we appear to be disappointed, just as it looks as though its game on. I'm sure the AH will come good sometime this summer and indeed GFS paint a very summery outcome albeit a week away.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130627/06/168/h500slp.png

[Model Output Discussion 12z 20/04/13]

Some cool air fringing the very north early next week, with the 528dam not quite finished with us yet.

 

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

A little late, but I found it a quite pointed that the yesterdays bbc country-file forecast didn't hint at maybe a warm up, in 10 days or so.

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130310/06/33/h500slp.png

Just a little concerned that the channel low is just a little to far north now for the IOW, with what looks like a maritime influence along the south coast. Hope I'm wrong.

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->]

Dont want to sound a killjoy here on the IOW snowfest, but Im a little consered if any snow will manage to settle, the ground will surely be above frezzing. Lets hope that the snow prep will be heavy enough to counteract this. I hope my pesamistic outlook is wrong, anybody care to coment on if this is a borderline deep snow event for the IOW or not.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.]

It still all looks pretty uncertain to me, despite the mild clustering.

Yes to me it looks more of a split in the members rather than a scatter. A few still showing very cold (-13)

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.]

Roughly 500 height-((SLP-1000)*0.8

so ~ 520 DAM

steady as she goes at 168......

S

Thanks Steve Ill try and remember the Formula. Sorry mods slightly off top.

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.]

http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?17-0

So the first power ECM chart is out-

540 heights into Kent, -10c air & a stiff Easterly wind = snow flurries building....

ECM has now upgraded the 850's over in the continent to -13C at 96...

Could we scrape a -13c at 120....- only 2c away from Feb 1991- & the coldest upper air since Feb 2005-

S

Sorry to interrupt with a silly question, but by my reckoning, a 540 heights with a 1025 millibar roughly translates to (540-25=515) a 515 Dam ?

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 06z Onwards]

Absolutely gobsmacked at the amount of snow we've had on the IOW today, albit a little slushy. Had temp of 4 deg last evening, I just didn't believe the forecasts last night. Surprised at the sudden fall in temps in the early morning.

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th Januray 2013>]

Just going down to check the main road into the Village...........i maybe gone some time!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL, Temp dropped 2 deg since 4am, now 1deg rain turning sleety/snowy, things moving in the right direction.

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->]

I really do hope I'm wrong, but I cant see any significant snow sticking on the IOW, we've hardly had an air frost, and last night the temp stayed above freezing. Please somebody tell me I'm wrong and that we may be in for a real dumping.

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>]

The problem here is only being 10m above sea level and being quite close to the coast (Poole harbour & Jurassic) it is likely to keep dew points above freezing despite being under cold uppers. i'd only have to travel to Bere Regis or Lytchett Matravers and they would probably have snow.

Yes I think we will miss out being on the south coast, at least you can travel inland.

Pete IOW

[Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>]

A rather Amby post from the IOW I'm afraid. Looks to me a very borderline snow event in my neck of the woods IMO, with a easterly flow on the Saturday with a slight maritime influence, however a better chance on the Sun with more of a NE, I'm probably reading the charts incorrectly. hope I'm wrong.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

I like to view the gfs ens in Wetter, as it shows the average line, and by the 13th all members are below it.

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Ian I hear what you're saying, and in the never to be mentioned period in the 90's, we would expect such a pattern to continue rolling.

However, to suggest a strong PV over Greenland means that is unlikely to change within a matter of weeks....well lets test that theory against some of the coldest winter periods.

arctic.

Brilliant post, lets hope for RSR to happen in the coming few weeks. I was surprised to see that in all the classic severe winters; that this was the case.

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

As it's Christmas Eve i thought i'd post the Netweather Christmas Top 10 - and ironically it doesn't change much each Winter - in reverse order:

At number 10 it's "The CFS long term charts are as useful as a chocolate teapot"

9: "It's the MW"

8: "Matt Hugo says....."

7: "Ian Ferguson says...."

6: "GP says it will....."

5: "It's Christmas so there's probably missing data"

4: "The synoptics look like the build up to 1962/63"

3: "1947 winter didnt really start til late January, so there's plenty of time yet..."

2: "The Strat forecasts indicate a strong warming anytime soon...."

And the number one is

"Winter's over......(even though it's only Christmas Eve)"

A Merry Christmas and a prosperous & healthy New Year to you all.

Regards BB

LOL I'm certainly guilty of No 3

[The Winter emotions and moaning thread]

Thought Id share a personal view on how I view the winter period. During November expectation are running high and the model watching becomes quite intense and usually throws up some interesting outputs, along with that there is usually a few enormous ramps from the usual suspects witch adds fuel to my expectations. Also the shortening days gives the impression of a long cold winter ahead, and it doesn't matter to much if the models aren't showing cold, there is still plenty of time. The watershed for me is Xmas where I am distracted from model watching and take up looking s at the charts again in the new year. Suddenly time has seemed to run out, the models are showing Zonal all the way, the days are getting longer and a lot of winter is over posts start to appear. I keep telling myself that the winter of 1947 didn't start till mid Jan, but it to no avail, are well there is always next year, my thought turn to spring.