snowflakey
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Posts posted by snowflakey
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1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:
More return of the Euroslug and downgrading of PM/cooler air before that, especially on the ECM!
I'm beginning to lose it with our climate... I've defended it on here sometimes... really struggling at the moment!
Summer is much better than winters like this and that's saying something considering we're worse for warmth/interest than most places at our latitude...Yes very depressing runs at the moment , seems impossible to get rid of the slug. Hopefully America will come out of the freezer soon, and the jet will die down, and take a nose dive south.
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I think the problem with me is I've been following the model outputs for wintery potential since Oct, and with America going into the freezer early, it has seemed to be a long winter already. The model outputs more often than not show mouth watering potential with a fledgling PV being knocked about, combined with a distorted expectation for Dec (blame 2012). I have to keep reminding myself that it isn't Xmas yet and there is still a long time for there to be some wintery weather.
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Yes the effect of the earliest sunset and the latest sunrise not falling on the shortest day, is known as the Analemma .
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Think I'll place a bet for a white Xmas, should get good odds, like 20/1at the moment,
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Has probably been mentioned before, but looks like a Scandy high developing. I know its FI but does seem to develop as you go through the sequence.
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41 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
The Gfs 6z certainly has a very Dec 2015 look about it through low res..very balmy conditions with tropical maritime air flooding across the uk. Plenty of support from the GEFS 6z too with winds becoming broadly swly.
The GFS takes over a week to get into the slug position, ECM on the other hand has the HP in a lot more favourable position. This is certainly not a 2015 re run IMO. Yet
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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:
Its more the actual trough disruption of the low itself
look at UKMO 120 at the same time...
Thanks for the reply Steve will have to do a bit of work research into trough distribution. Fingers crossed for the next GFS
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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
The GFS mean at 120 keeps the atlantic low as one entity with minimal trough disruption ( as per Euros )
Until till it resolves this & moves the energy into x2 split areas - one further SE & the other further NW it will continue to create a positive tiltes low at 168 & flatten the block
The second it gets decent seperation the energy will go under...
energy in the jet seems to be split with the lions share going under
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Will feel quite cold tomorrow in a strong N/NE and the 528 dam flirting with the south coast.
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Thanks for replying to my post Damian, I did a bit of research myself and found this. I don't think it was an official office, more of a nickname.
http://bufvc.ac.uk/tvandradio/lbc/index.php/segment/0002600273021
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Sorry to start a new thread on what is a silly question, but does anyone remember the government appointing a minister of snow. I believe it was a labour government (Harold Wilson ?). It was a particular heavy blizzard witch effected the west county.
Thanks Pete B
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A bit of a snap shot, but has potential imo with a mah retrogressing towards Greenland ?
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:The Gfs 12z brings winter to Scotland!
Also the 528dam down to the south coast
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40 minutes ago, Ravelin said:
I fail to see why anyone should be disappointed with prospects when you see this sort of chart being churned out on a fairly regular basis in November.
OK, it's FI, but it's not screaming ranging PV.
Meanwhile, somewhere in Scotland this morning...
Ok will probably not happen but sort of goes to prove that us and the east coast usa can be v cold.
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Bit of a setback this morning, I'm sure the outlook will change in our favour, maybe even later today. 3steps forward 2steps back
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I seem to remember ECM " leading us up the garden path" on quite a few occasions over the last couple of horrendous winters.. Lets hope its. GFS being over keen on letting the Atlantic in on this occasion..
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25 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:
Nice GFS 6z:
Still looking good, especially when winter hasn't even begun yet!
Law of averages an all that, a decent (cold/snow) winter is due.
A very distressed looking PV to my untrained eye there, the HP ridging over Greenland seems to be doing a lot of damage.
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http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no/
I see the snow level has dropped significantly overnight way up in Svalbard.
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Didn't realize that around the winter solstice the sun only gets about 15 deg above the horizon., for London.
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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:
We start to see a notable decrease in daylight from now until the clocks go back, roughly 2 minutes am and pm each day, the gradient of loss being its steepest through September and October.
Clear skies still allow sufficient light up until 8pm, but its a loosing battle from now on, and a sunny evening by the end of September quickly descends into a dark one by 7.30pm, conversely a wet evening can see street lights turned on by 7pm in as little as a couple of weeks time.
Yes the rate of change in daylight hour is at its max just either side of the equinoxes.
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850 temps look a little inconclusive for London, with a slight warming trend, but with a large amount of scatter after a couple of days.
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have been lurking around this thread and model output for some time now and found it interesting how Xmas / new year seem to act as a mental switch. Before Xmas the days are still getting shorter most of the winter is in front of us, and if the weather isn't playing ball at least there is plenty of time left for thing to improve. In the new year though, witch is only 10 days after the winter solstice,days are getting longer and suddenly it feels as though we are running out of time , and that winter is over.
I'm only generalising and maybe its just me that feels like this, I think its a combination or the bleak mid winter is relatively short period and the lengthening days.
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I hear your words, but Weston is difficult enough to get snow at the best of times, and we saw nothing in that cold spell in 2013.
Got to be epic from now on in to get snow for Weston.
I'm in the same situation although we had a good snowfall in 2013, I'm not that confident of anything significant in the short term for, were I live (iow)
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With the wind gusts the met office charts are showing I think its just a matter of time now till early warnings are issued for the south
Gusts peaking just over 70mph for Brighton and Dover gusts also exceed 70mph for a time in the south west
Maybe 100mph gust for the needles ?
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Sorry MODS but was this post of mine in the wrong forum, please let me know.