[Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

The 40c barrier to be broken somewhere in the se over the next fortnight ?  Highley unlikely I know, its about 104f  in old money. 

[Monday 14th May Weather Observations]

I thought for a moment that the rainfall radar had stopped, until I noticed some very light rain in the far NW.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

THe country file forecast seemed to indicate that the rain might not reach as far west as was previously thought.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

frequent lighting , with a lot more to come going by the radar. very heavy rain just started, 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Looks like another pulse of precipitation approaching from the south, with the IOW in its sight.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Well done all you getting snow can’t lie pretty gutted we miss out again but deep down expected it! Downgraded continuously and pushed bk for us on met office and the most pathetic tiny flakes cmg down right now ? roll on next winter ....

I think your are being a bit premature, the main event hasn't happened yet.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Bobafet said:

I think you maybe pleasantly surprised!! .............................................although us living on the IOW are used to let downs!!!  

I'm quietly optimistic for us Islanders ATM, its usually the temps are just the wrong side of marginal  for us, but not in this case.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That's good news for the IOW  (if its snow you want) 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Still awaiting my first flake, a line of snow showers agonizingly close out in the channel, but not coming my way. ATM

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

With a combination of wishful thinking and ignorance I was lead to believe that this up and coming severe cold spell was going to be locked in fore the foreseeable, and we were going to be treated to days of sub zero temps and snowfall. Now even as it arrives it is being eroded by African air, I do hope that the situation changes for the better as we approach the end of the week.

[January 1987]

All eyes east at the moment, and of interest is the forming of a pool of sub 492 over eastern Russia , but if I'm not mistaken didn't we have the 492 line just clip the far SE of Kent during the Jan 1987 spell.- Apologize if I've- posted this before in another thread.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

I'm afraid I'm a very hard man to please and I wont be happy until I see the 492 dam make an appearance in the SE.  

This is the best I could come up with ATM

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

New graphics I suspect

Thanks abruuzzi

Nothing to get to excited about then.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Just seen BBC weather forecast, and Tom Schafernaker ended with a knowing wink, and said make sure you see the forecast tomorrow.  I'm intrigued. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

2 minutes ago, ptow said:

maxes of 2/3 seem high bearing in mind the uppers of -12/13. What sort of uppers do we need to get subzero maxima?

Very much rule of thumb, but if you add 10/11 to the 850's you'll be fairly close, but local conditions at SL may have an effect

[Model output discussion - mid January]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

At last -  cross model agreement at day 10 between ecm and gfs 

 

 

 

 

 

Check the date though ......

Would be interesting if they got there by the same route.

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

But Yesterday’s Post was when they were all mild.... how can something be jinx that wasn’t showing...

Maybe a bit premature but yesterday's call for an Easterly was brilliant, when nearly everybody else was just seeing Zonal.  

[The Seasonal Forecast Thread]

Looking forward to the up and coming PM set up. Some are calling it 'cold zonal' , which is fairly accurate . The thing is IMO the PM set up can very easily switch round to a Artic or nne set up. where as a full blown zonal set up is hard to budge.

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

19 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Well well, surely there has got to be snow in this chart from the 06z T+222?

Looks like a very healthy Greenland High developing on that chart. 

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Interestingly there's quite a bit more amplification in the Atlantic at day 4-5 with pressure lower in Europe.

Probably nothing but hopefully the trend can continue, it's something.

and what's that lurking to the top right of those charts. Is it the mighty Russian /sib high flexing its muscle . If is lets hope it becomes a main player in the winter ahead.

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I'm really hoping that these slider lows, that seem to be taking a more progressively southern route, can somehow do some damage to the persistent high pressure over southern Europe.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

23 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00Z

Decent Scandy Low just over a week off.

 

Yes with what looks like a genuine  GH

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Lots of scatter after the 2ed

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Yes the 12 gfs run has my interest with some PM /  northerly outbreaks, but it still looks a bit mobile to me .The jet though is tring to dig south, certainly worth keeping an eye on.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Sorry for the last post. here are the London ens I meant to post