MildCarlilse

Anybody noticed the fault with met office rainfall radar? Western and Northern Isles in a black out.

SSW’s may well be filed away in the same bin as the Thermohaline Conveyer shut down,with reference to their bringing Armageddon type Winter Synoptics.

Some healthy snow showers over night,pictures taken near Laxay,20 minutes drive from Stornoway.

Nice snow shower at Butt of Lewis this morning.Sea level snow too mind. IMG_3007.MOV

Agreed,just like BBC are always drawing attention to London and southeast.This is very apparent when viewing from Scotland.

I’ve had very little snow at the top of the Isle of Lewis this winter,however most of mainland Scotland and especially at elevation has benefited from top up snow conditions.Excellent indicators that this winter so far has been on the colder side of average.I don’t know what the pressure patterns looked like early 1800’s (which produced classic winters) but since then,consistent,extreme and protracted winters appear only as one shot wonders.The models flip flop until the 120 hr point and end up getting the patterns right under that timescale with usual acceptable deviances.

+6c,drizzle,ESE 13mph Isle of Lewis.

It seems likely that the return to milder, westerly weather will be short-lived over points North of the Scottish Border, however by Wednesday the drift of air mass will be of a southerly source for a short time, very weak and then its looking like a free for all thereafter as the Atlantic is sleeping and the SSW is playing away from home and not being a good Beast provider.

As I see things my friend, .the best charts have always been and remain just out of the realistic time frame at +120 onwards. Actually,the best charts are the synoptics right now. .there remains anomalous warmth over much of Europe. Very few cold spells that only affect the far west of the continent are severe or have any sort of longevity. Temperatures over large land masses drop quickly response to cold air. .the 850s are still an issue. Temps over much of the country will easily get above freezing on most days meaning any ppn will be marginal and if we do get any settling snow, it will likely rapidly thaw. A detail only. .it has been a mild and wet December - there is latent heat in the soil meaning snow might not settle or will thaw from the ground up if it does settle. Again,a detail only. .To my mind, a severe winter spells mean lying snow for several days and temps struggling to get above freezing. Whilst there are some encouraging building blocks in place for this to happen at some point, I would suggest to newbies reading the forum to enjoy the banter, but divide what is actually being predicted by about 10. No one is predicting a 'severe winter',what the models are showing is a pattern conducive to sustainable cold weather here in the U.K.How things actually transpire in people's back yard is subject to variability but, the synoptics ARE conducive to and suggest very favourably that at least in the reliable timeframe which seems to be beyond 120hrs,things are cooling off.

There has already been mountain snow in Scotland.

Not on the chart I quoted on Alexis.

As not all of the members herein live in that nice red area,it could be argued that this post be moved to the regional thread and fairness be consistent,just as many ‘snowfall’ posts in Scotland during the winter months are subject to same moderation.

Yes,they get it wrong when the weather forecast is wrong.

The weather forecasting trade is unique; no matter how many errors you make,your job remains safe and secure.

What is worse,to have had and lost or to have never had at all?

I will stick with this.

‘Feels like 4c’...It does! We need high pressure here and soon.

Northwest Scotland is on day six of dry weather.

Yes Mushy,we know what is happening but as I asked,why?

Agreed but they adjust at 24hrs out,however my concern is why long-fetch Northerlies are no more.

Still though,the cold has been there,trapped by the fast spinning polar vortex.Greenland has had record low registers along with many North American points.All against the back drop of a warming global climate.Just waiting on comment on why Arctic ice melt has failed to have an impact on sea conveyor systems as was predicted it would,causing colder winters here.

Those figures tell the story.

Interesting observations... Column: Valentine's Day deep freeze aside, it's been a very odd winter BUFFALONEWS.COM Leave it to me to write about this mild winter on the coldest day of the season. There is our mean warming climate involved, but I would ...

It may be a write off regarding low-level snow(especially south of Manchester)however it’s another entry into the record books.

Unrelenting wind and hail at Butt of Lewis today.