MildCarlilse

Also,Spring tides set to join the party.

Here we are now.This could easily be a snapshot of a cold day in September or May...

Lest we forget how 1st of March 2018 looked like, with regard to Winter running late...

I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)

Could you define or quantify 'serious cold nights' with regard to this stage in January,current and recent synoptics, your location and in respect of the last 50 years?

Can these models be believed? Who knows what the 850’s looked liked then.Can they be verified?

A west/northwesterly flow I will take.Snowfall incoming for all Scottish ski areas.It’s not the blocking scenario we’re looking for but a pattern change looks closer.Just one low sinking south and we are there.

I believe climate change is happening faster than the experts are prepared to admit.One beast from the east makes not an ice age but rising global temperatures mean a return to the days of Ivan the Red,who visited Greenland when Greenland was green.

What is noteworthy about this Festive weather is the lack of rain and the attendant pressure stagnation.Oh and as it looks set to continue I would suggest whether one is looking for cold or otherwise,it has the potential to be historical.Had the orientation been further north etc etc then it may have been very cold just now.The best to you all and I look forward to the conclusion of this essentially blocked pattern in remaining weeks of Meteorological winter.

This thread has become the south east of England heatwave thread.I personally do not wish for temperatures above 21c and the model output of recent days continued to show lower pressure and less settled conditions north of the Scottish Borders.Up here, the breakdown happened a few days ago and with not much 'heat' or wall to wall' sunshine being forecast for us up here in the foreseeable, it would be respectful to remember that the UK is not restricted geographically to london and the south east.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/03/hot-planet-all-time-heat-records-have-been-set-all-over-the-world-in-last-week/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.cd3316bd7248

Actually all it took to 'displace this heat' was a small cold front which moved across Scotland yesterday.

I do think this year is a turning point for a run of colder winters . ...It certainly is for many parts of Scotland.

I know exactly what he is talking about.In that Easterly of January 1987,the cold spell was well forecast and the temperatures around Moscow were around -30c.As the air moved west it crossed the North Sea which was around +7c and the end product visited this country at around -5c through the day.The heavy snow showers were persistent and accumulative.

The main model discussion thread has become the southern England cold break down thread,so is this perhaps the place to discuss what the models are showing? Looking back on similar scenarios is probably the best way for anyone struggling with model projection,given that the channel low is appearing in F1 ( and it is in F1).As many have alluded to,these upcoming conditions have been only dreams for a good few years now and as they take a grip on the country it remains to be seen what happens both locally and nationally.The big breakdown (as progged by GFS) might never happen and until we get this week up and running,it’s best to keep one eye on the models and the other on historical data,which is reality fodder.

Agreed.Wish the BBC proggings were more accurate.They had lots of snow showers for here yesterday.Precipitation=0.Big fail.

Still nothing in Galashiels?

BBC proggings for snow showers in Galashiels area Wednesday...actual snowfall=0.Yesterday BBC proggings for Sunday snow showers in Galashiels area...actual snowfall=0.Weather forecasting ‘profession’ must unique inthat you can be in error infinitely without fear of reprimand.Looking forward to snowfall fail number 3 this Tuesday.Proggings smoggings!?

23 hrs later and the reality of dabbling and peddling F1 scenarios bites back.

My friend,the easterly is there,over south east England and based on those charts,hardly blocking is it?

In these troubled times I quote loosely John Holmes and his opinions of what the 500mb charts were showing...no blocking.

Many of us in Scotland have already had proper winter weather this season so far and not just once my friend.As many down south chase this easterly as the great deliverer of snow,we in Scotland have done very well from the new winter friend,the northwesterly.An easterly is only as good as it’s accompanied allies...temperature,temperature and temperature.If these are low (pick one) then the results will follow.

The Leadhills thaw...

I'm confident that the big snow drifts on the A7 around the Fala hill area will survive until the next cold spell at end of week.

Earlier.Also saw the red hue the sky adopted,was waiting on a sonic boom from an asteroid.