MildCarlilse

Snowing in Galashiels,the third consecutive snowfall in a row.Someone on the model thread said recently that this zonal pattern is rubbish.Well he was right but he does bide south of the border.

Go figure what my friend? I assume the model discussion includes Northern Ireland and Wales too,not just England? I’m confident this developing pattern will deliver wintriness to many who have missed out so far.As some have also said,I find this NW/SE flow intriguing especially as it qualifies as a blocking pattern.

Oh,Scotland missing out???

I agree Feb,I don't know anyone who lives at that height however it is an example of one chart/net result next to (if it verifies) a far more potent chart and with higher wind speeds,temperatures will have less time to be modified.Of course the air back in November was probably less cold at source than same now,so all in all,logically...

ThIs chart back in November brought with it temps. of -4c at 1000m in Scotland... This chart... is far more organised and energetic,faster wind flow over sea etc so I am confident that much more lower lying areas across the country will see snow as this pattern re-establishes.

Yes,Sarah-Kieth Lucas also waving the mild banner.?

Agreed Moresnow.All too often anywhere north of Manchester is the other side of the world and insignificant.Anyhow I find this possible return to cold zonal very interesting as it is unusual for its persistence,almost the new normal and taking the place of the southwesterly.

This slider high,which is going to happen in the reliable timeframe,will bring an end to a 14 day cold spell in Scotland.Whilst many down south have been buffeted and rained on,Scotland has witnessed calm,benign conditions with snow drifts still prevailing in points as low as 300m Point being,comments about how mild,wet and windy it has been are rather biased from a southerly viewpoint.Trust me,if you hate the weather in England,come to Scotland,where the weather is seldom mentioned in English media.

At present,nothing remotely cold to our East or North east... but as many have said earlier,the Northwesterlies have delivered us from mild zonal banality.As we look into the 10 day frame,it is worth having a look at what it takes model wise and synoptically,to get the cold in from the East.GP on January 1987.

Yes the Jet stream,cause or effect? I would love to see models,jet stream and synoptic charts from the winters mid 1700's.What we could learn from them.

It is becoming ever more certain that a deep low will make it's presence felt around Boxing day,give or take 12 hrs either way.Looks also like being part of the pattern changer but for now,finally the mild air forecasted for Sunday is now seeping south over Scotland.

A couple of questions...what is NWP,who is GP and when people refer to the EC,do they mean the ECM model? Also,what does ‘progged’ mean? I am sure these queries belong in the model thread as that’s where I continually come across these points.

Agreed.What I find fascinating in this model thread is this...we have experts herein,who can interpret and evaluate the data the models are offering and to very great detail.I am in awe at some of the scripts from the experts.Aforesaid(s) will conclude future casts from all sources,and come to conclusions of their outcomes.However,this is not forecasting the weather,it is speculation on the models' markets.I believe pattern matching albeit less scientific has far greater reliability in the 7-10 day period than what the models and their peers are capable of at present.Let's be fair to all,we are trying to predict from chaos.Next time you stir the cream in a cup of coffee,think of the jet stream.During the last few weeks I have noted a distinct pattern with heights persisting unusually to the north west,with the added 6 day northerly being forecasted and,realised.Traditionally there has always been a reset/pattern change in the weather around 18th December in the U.K. unless the big drivers are in charge,2009/2010.The GFS had given hope,the ECM was it's biggest critic and the METO was in the middle ground,quietly confident.Where are we heading now? I refer back to the pattern change,many have seen a 'front loaded' start to winter,this is unusual and confounded some of the models until well into the reliable.I do believe the trend will be short-term real time changes which the models will only just keep up with.

As the GFS backs off from its cold posturing,it is being replaced by festive mild smiles from the television forecasters.

...and -5c in Aviemore.?

‘Slider lows’ usually bring a rise in temperatures,especially so from the North West.Polar lows are more trustworthy in bringing snow when embedded in a Northerly and usually only in January/February.This ‘slider low’ may contradict my comment,I hope so.The main point is the models are all in agreement of it’s genesis.

I’m always looking for the models to show a possible route to the classic block.So far pressure has been too high over Iberia,however as long as Northerlies are showing and being realised we are better placed for longer term cold.

Then and now...

Agreed and that also suggests the models were more reliable last winter.

I'm curious why this chart is creating so much excitement... ... when this is really the business?