A.J

would you expand on that Shotski, because the lack of text in your post means your post is ambiguous as best...I mean it could mean that you just been cutting up onions making you cry, then stubbed your toe on the kitchen door making you angry, whilst trying to use your laptop for posting a weather chart.... .....I know what you mean, but the majority of members wouldn't......and besides the chart you've posted is 6 days away, which in the current volatile climate of the model outputs has about as much chance of verifying as Leicester City getting a decent football team (said that as I see Andy lurking....lol)

quick summary from me......Getting very close to cross model agreement for a cold easterly pattern kicking off in a few days, singing very loudly now......and keep an eye on friday, a trough will slide down NW to SE during the afternoon/evening with associated cold pool of uppers, cheshire gap effect will enhance ppn giving a possible covering of snow in places, if synoptics play out

Will it, won't it??.....early morning 06z run shows some nice wintry weather in the not too distant future, with some potential for 'battleground' scenarios (which for most of us bring the biggest dumpings) tieing in quite nicely with the other model output...Still early doors, but it seems the synoptically the building blocks are falling into place..the trends for a switch to a colder, potentially snowy pattern have been quietly humming away for several days, now they're starting to to sing with increasing volume

I have decreed that we are going to get copious quantities of the white stuff over the next few weeks, I can feel it in my bones.....So with that in mind, here's a squeaky clean thread for the forthcoming wintry stuff!.... http://forum.netweat...cussion-part-5/ Will be closing this one shortly

Ok, the last thread has meandered along for what seems like millenia......and with the prospects of some wintry weather in the short, medium & long term, a shiny new thread for you to chat away in linky for the previous thread here -------> http://forum.netweat...4/page__st__560

it's worth members to the north & east of our region keeping an eye on the possible developing weather situation for tomorrow morning as a period of heavy wet frontal snow is possible especially for areas with some elevation...all it would take for something rather more significant would be a slight delay in the frontal system's progression, so worth mentioning..the Met Office do have a weather warning effective from 0400z hrs tomorrow... http://www.metoffice...st_warnings.htm a few of NMM hi-res model images to illustrate...

no worries matey!

I'm well aware of when to take them seriously/excited thank you!...you should know me better than that!....I'm reffering to the frequency of the chopping and changing of the runs, I don't think in 5 years of model watching that I've ever seen so much disagreement and backtracking from one scenario to another on the outputs...and it should be said, the associated mass of conflicting posts that arise in the MOD

"Anyone else finding the model output hard work at the moment?.....so many different trends being picked up and then getting dropped, then picked up again, and then getting dropped again...etc..etc.........for cold lovers it seems that an easterly airflow is patterned on the fringes of the hi-res output (T192) but never seems to come any closer....groundhog day! :wacko: .....and there rarely seems to be cross-board agreement (apart from the very near time scale) in fact it seems the only thing the outputs agree on, is their disagreement!" posted the above in the 'model chat' thread and thought I'd repeat it here as it's relevant to the thread, am curious on other regional members thoughts on the recent outputs

not at all......that's the problem with 'knee-jerk reaction' posts like the one above...No disrespect Staffs but your post is based on one model run (which is also an inaccurate interpretation IMHO)....The best advice as has been mentioned before is to compare like for like runs as opposed to consecutive runs as trends become far more apparent...In fact today's runs are far more favourable to wintry conditions than yesterdays...

ok, I appreciate from a storm purists point of view that the series went downhill, the 1st episode was good though, but I was always under the impression that the Discovery Channel were keen to put a kind of 'soap opera of storms' image across to make the show appealing to the mass audience...Who decision is it to bin the series Paul, is it the storm chasers themselves, or the film crews? cheers

morning all, a quick glance at the model output for the past 12 hours suggest that winter might finally be on it's way, plenty of twists & turns to come mind you, but promising never the less, time to polish up those sledges, me thinks! :smiliz19:

Keep the faith Brother!..........

Strewth, where did that come from...calm one minute, now blowing a hooly & lashing it down outside now!

I'll allow this post RI, to give MKSA a chance to reply, but I have suspicions that you're on a baiting mission, so will be watching

"You have been kicked from the chat room"

Deleting your post will make me laugh even harder, but I'm in a good mood, so I'll let it pass....

why the refund?....the actual model output is encouraging for cold & the potential for snow is there, best keep them

and why is that?

yes, most odd, I've just been looking at the model output, especially way out into F1, and the models show the same thing, blue's being eroded by red's...Conclusion? Alonso is gonna kick Vettel's backside this season and the McLarens won't even get a look in, the models said so!

It's re-opened now Mark.....It was closed to allow the site team to deal with issues relating to the standard of posting in said thread

are you on xbox live Andy?...if so pm me your gamer tag....and yes I still suck at F1 2011 as indeed on most games these days, old age is creeping in I fear! indeed Mark, the mexican standoff continues!.....interested in where the ECMWF goes from T168 to T240, and especially interested where this run lies in the ensemble suite

Andy, you are a complete berk, but a funny berk! :smilz38: TBH i've been scanning the model threads today, and the posts in them are as inconsistent and as polarized as the model outputs themselves...One heck of a rollercoaster, and when it comes to the crunch, the weather will do what the weather will do, regardless of the terabytes of of data inputted into synoptic modelling software!

The right direction to go in Radders is to follow the posts of the members I mentioned, add chinomaniac & Phil Warks & Isolated Frost & Lorenzo to that list...Yes, a couple are known coldies but generally speaking they're fairly close to the mark with their analysis & interpretation of the model output....but I'd still like to know (in a friendly manner) why you feel the outputs are 'dire' from the outputs across the board and why you say there will be no snow etc etc....You're looking at the models in a 'glass in half empty' manner and TBH your earlier post was very misleading, especially for members in here with a limited knowledge of the models and are trying to learn I'll reply via pm later....the public forum is not really the place to discuss opinions on other members

Care to elaborate on that Radders?....IMHO, and quite frankly, you're talking complete nonsense, have you not been reading any of the imformative posts in the MOD from the likes of Nick Sussex, BFTP, WM, Damianslaw, JH, Steve Murr, Paul, GP etc etc etc?