A.J

not yet, the hi-res NMM model goes out to 00z friday, the next run is due out later on tonight, this will cover the early morning period

worth adding that the NMM run shows conditions may border on blizzard-like temporarily as wind speeds pick up over the midlands during that time frame.....Again, not definite by any means but something to be aware of...

Here I am in the seventh heaven of delight with the prospect of some lovely snow, and all the fun that goes with it, then to have a thought dawn on me that I'm due at my suppliers in Tamworth at 7am friday...Ooh that journey from Penkridge to Tamworth during morning rush hour on the A5 in heavy snow is going to be fun!!

Just had one of those really weird snow flurries when there is no cloud about :wacko:

Sorry chum, she's already spoken for..lol All in all, an encouraging set of outputs this morning, all to play for at this juncture

On behalf of all of the midlands members I have this to say...."Speak to the hand because the ears aren't listening!" I do agree an air of caution is required, conditions for snowfall on most of the model outputs this morning are marginal and there are plenty of twists and turns ahead, but there does seem to be increasing agreement on the track of fridays system and ppn spread, considering where the models were 24-48 hours ago

Threads merged, thanks Robin!

There was, but nobody had posted in it for over 3 weeks, and besides the NW whiners thread is yearly tradition, but fear not, i'll get the 2 threads merged to save confusion

Some general consensus from the big 3's overnight outputs with both ECM & GFS back-tracking somewhat and increasing intensity on the thursday night/friday morning system, it's gone from a an open wave to a closed circulation (well, at least to my untrained eye!) All 3 models on this particular run are in agreement of the LP sliding through southern England/English Channel with still the possibilities of strong winds, and indeed the possibilities of a snow event for Wales & The Midlands and then parts of the East as the system slides through leaving all parts in a showery NW regime

morning all ....bit of a 'mushy' head this morning after my baby daughter (just 5 weeks old) decided that night time is crying & playing time...need some sleep! ....Well, no white stuff during the night unfortunately, any showers avoided me like the plague! but looks like some other parts caught a few flakes It looks like today is sunshine & showers, of which the showers hopefully will have a wintry flavour, and then our eyes turn to the west to see what this pesky system on thursday night/friday morning has to offer....The 00z GFS tweaks things a tad on its run, it has the LP deeper but on a similar track to previous model outputs, however there's a more pronounced amount of warmer air mixed into the circulation on this run which will beef up ppn, but increases the chances of it being just rain, or more sleety...Still, it's just one run

Some beefy looking showers coming out of wales now approaching the west midlands (should arrive within the hour) very interested to see what type of ppn falls from these, could get lucky and get a dusting?

and to confound the southerly tracking favouring posters, the hi-res NAE model has it tracking considerably further north and considerably deeper...This would change the ppn spread and winds considerably...100 mile northerly variation on this particular model run, bringing stronger winds into our region (very rough in southern counties of England) and my guess would be heavy rain, possibly turning to heavy snow along it's northern flank and back edge, but rain for most of us Expect many twists and turns to come over the next 24-36 hours!

For all you snow starved folks here in the midlands, just to let you know that the 2011-12 winter edition of the Whiners Thread is open for business to let off some steam! :smiliz19:

It's that time of year folks, when your favourite colour is white yet you can't see any of it on the ground....So, if you've had no snow, or want to curse the GFS, or just life in general, then pop in here and grumble, whine, & bleat to your hearts content!

It's nice to see that I'm not losing my marbles...lol To Conor, look again at the LP centre, it's exactly where it should be, and on the SAME track as the 12z as posted before....No disrespect, but if you can't see that, then a visit to specsavers is in order.... :winky: Also worth pointing out that to look for trends in the GFS ppn charts is a fools errand (they are notoriously inaccurate, even the hi-res models are not infallible when it come to the ppn spreads)

No it's not on a southward trend!...out to T60 and the track is near identical to the earlier run, it's slightly shallower & more progressive in its movement, ie it exits the channel slightly faster, but in fact the run so far shows a less marginal setup for snowfall, more likely a 6 hour window of moderate to heavy snow if it verifies To illustrate... GFS12z at T54 equivalent GFS18z at T54

Why do your replies not surprise me chaps!......I've lived up here for nigh on 6 years, and yes there have been a few near misses, but also some unexpected direct hits.....What your describing isn't bad luck, it's simply what everyone else in every part of the world experiences, it's simply the law of averages, a numbers game if you will

Out of curiosity, what are you basing this on?...GFS has ppn from this system on its 12z run all the way up to northern england, a 300+ mile descrepancy from your post

GFS12z out to T66 and certainly keeps our region in the mix...It's predicting a channel low tracking swiftly west to east with a marginal snow event for the midlands especially more northern parts initially and then all parts as the low moves out into the near continent....Must stress it's very marginal on this run -2C to -4C T850's, and dew points between +1C & -1C with dewpoints dropping as the low passes through.. Me thinks that elevation & evaporated cooling will play a major role in ppn type, but all in all, potential is there! again, this summary is based solely on one model run, a lot could change

I give up!..... :lol:

Good stuff!....That's what we like to hear

I would recommend some posters to be more objective when posting in this thread...Yes we all know it's frustrating when the weather doesn't play ball, but is some of the defeatism creeping into posts really necessary?

METO still at odds with the GFS & ECM....GFS modeling shows a channel Low which would result in the strongest winds over the near continent, but for the Midlands, parts of Wales over to the east coast heavy snowfall could be on the cards, with rain (and lots of it) further south, whereas the METO still has a more northerly tracking system with a concentration of the strongest winds over Wales, Northern England, & the North Midlands with heavy driving rain for all parts...So, lots of uncertainty, certainly worth keeping an eye out for updated TV forecasts and of course NW updates

Indeed it does, as mentioned yesterday if the last 2 or 3 GFS runs verify then we could be in for a treat with several hours of heavy, wet, sticky snow....Still the met office though have the track of the system considerably further north resulting in very strong winds and driving rain for our region...It just goes to show the uncertainty of modeling/forecasting of this system

TBH, it's probably worth locking this particular thread...With the MOD thread, atlantic storm thread, current weather threads and of course the regionals, posts in here will probably get lost and dilute some of the other threads already in place