A.J

Just got back for a spot of lunch before I head out again....just been scanning through the past few pages, must admit I had a good chuckle with the panicked posts whilst the met office were updating their warnings :lol: .....I believe, as I posted earlier, than model forecasting goes out of the window at this time frame, it's simply a case of now casting....I see Ian is patrolling the board posting with his unique brand of mild ramping as only Ian can, speak to the hand, my friend, because the ears aren't listening :winky:

Well spotted my man!...me likey da look of dat! :lol: charts courtesy of NetWeather Extra

To paraphrase Nick Sussex over in the model thread...expect nothing, then you might have a nice surprise in the morning!....Fact - Model output is iffy for a good chunk of us...Also as Ian has posted more than once, there's not a lot of cold air in-situ over the midlands currently, later on tonight, colder air will spill in as the upper air flow pattern changes to the North/north west, but will it be a) cold enough to change rain to snow, and b ) timing is crucial, as colder air may well dig in, but after precipitation has already slipped south east out of our region...A lot of variables in play which the model outputs are struggling to come to terms with, plus also who's to say that the variables may change again subtlety nearer T0, something that model output cannot take into account at that timescale... oops Zakos beat me to it...lol

lol....last night peeps wanted to bin the gfs and pray the NAE didn't verify, now it's the other way round! .....my advice to anyone now at short range is to bin all the models and check your radars and look upwards out of the window tonight

Carlsberg don't do rollercoasters, but if they did they probably call it the GFS....lol 06z trundling out, and have the LP slightly north with ppn spread further north....dig out the prozac & air sickness bags folks, it's going to be a bumpy ride from now in!

Just to add....Nick Sussex had this to say in the model thread.... "I expect alot of members in the snow risk area will be glued to every output today, it's one of those situations where you probably won't know whats going to happen until the precip actually starts falling. In terms of track though thats unlikely to change a great deal now, you might get 50-75 miles difference north or south, generally you need to be away from a windward coast, because its marginal this would tip the balance the wrong way, elevation is also important and the intensity of the precip." As being a well respected poster on this forum, it's worth paying heed to his post

Lets stick to sensible posts please everyone, negative one liners which add nothing to the discussion apart from wind other members up will simply be binned.....Model Output is ropey, it seems for some, but it's rather more prudent to now-cast and actually pop ones head out of the window and look up from time to time...Wasting one's life venting on here means one may miss the white stuff falling from the sky !`

Well no doubt there are twists & turns to come....Some folks will be happy, some will be sad, and just in case this weather system ends up in the Straits of Gibraltar, then fear not, the remedy is at hand..... Night all

Nick, just pm'd you matey

An utterly ridiculous thing to post, it's merely debate, nothing more, nothing less....One of my remits is to ensure threads are objective and to encourage debate & discussion....You've made your point, a vary valid point, however the other side of the debate has to be raised....Personally I couldn't care less if it snowed or not tomorrow night, so I remain objective and try and steer the debate/discussion forwards, not surpress

If there is no snow in our area, the NW Member Suicide Watch from last winter will have to be re-initiated by the sounds of it....lol......It never fails to amaze me how peeps get so wound up by the weather..It's not the end of the world!...(that's next year.. :winky: )

Yes you did Conor, but you're writing off the entire system based on one run?......a very brave call IMHO, and at the risk of sounding a tad sarcastic, you should send your CV to the met office, you know something they don't! Just read some of the replies I've missed, jeez keep your chins up! some real knee-jerk negativity in here!

NMM hi-res out in the next hour, might just shed a bit more light on the matter......but let's face it, regardless of the final outcome, there's always going to be some up & downs from the model outputs right up to T0 ! Cherry picking posts eh Conor?.....read the rest of the thread!

I was referring to ppn type ST...now those charts are out...up to T36 doesn't look bad, definitely at odds with the GFS18z...

Luke, thats the 12z output you're looking at...NAE18z only out to T24 currently

Yep, big oops...18z GFS run has the midlands more or less dry, the centre of the LP scoots through the french side of the english channel, I'd say a good 100 miles further south...The first spanner in the works, so to speak, but worth baring in mind, this is but one model run

ok Folks, with the latest model outputs due to arrive shortly, a new fresh, squeaky clean thread to chat away to your hearts content :smiliz19: -------------> http://forum.netweat...cussion-part-2/ Locking this thread in the next few minutes

A general request.....Members are fully entitled to air their views on Midlands weather regardless of their weather preference.... Whilst a bit of banter is harmless, personal sniping & baiting is not on, any offending posts will be deleted without warning...Cheers everyone

Ok chaps & ladies, just in time for tonights model outputs, a fresh thread to discuss the incoming threat of wind & rain, or will it be snowmaggedon ??? Previous thread here --------> http://forum.netweat...d/page__st__660

A bad experience is Stafford maybe?..mind you, wouldn't surprise me, I've had many a bad experience in Stafford and then ................. :w00t:

I really wish I could like this! ...lol

There are plenty of posts I would like to click the like button, but being the liking person that I like to be, I've can't give any more likes to posts that I like to Iike as I've run out of my like quota..... :w00t:

not at all, cannock born & bred I believe.....Consider your sorties in the south england thread just an excursion :smiliz19:

Yep, no doubt we'll get a load of 'foreigners' poking their heads into our thread over the next 24+ hours, green with envy! :lol:

TBH Backtrack, there is pretty much cross-model agreement across the entire board now (at least the models worth bothering about)