A.J

I spent most of my life growing up in Brixham, Devon...I think the snow line there was about 20,000 ft

You eat at the same curry house as me then

I'm away saturday/sunday, so if it's wintry I'll take you up on your offer matey

Remember the midlands thread last winter mate?....strewth, I'm telling ya it was a 24 hour a day job! :w00t:

Certainly blowing a hoolie out there, I wonder how many tree branches are going to go 'snap' tonight!

You also were in my back garden having a smoke? :lol:

Tonight/tomorrow's system starting to make its presence felt in our region. I currently have moderate rainfall & the wind is really picking up, roughly 20-25mph mean gusting to gale force (I say roughly because I'm not using weather station data, rather I just got very wet and nearly blown over whilst having a smoke outside!)

Yes the 12z runs of the GFS & ECM very similar out to T96 so far, still though at odds with the UKMO which has the LP exiting the UK further north. Even a small variation in track would have a significant effect in wind strengths and affected areas, indeed also on PPN spread/type in areas where flooding might be an issue GFS12z ECM12Z UKMO12z

As I posted, it all depends on the mix below the 850Hpa boundary....I believe currently there is a + anomaly in the Irish Sea SST's, in this scenario, then yes you would require colder T850's as the warmer sea surface has a stronger modifying effect on the sub 850Hpa air, however move a few miles in land, and it's a totally different kettle of fish for the reasons I posted earlier

indeed Mark, definitely worth keeping an eye on!

Some rather odd posts in here regarding snowfall potential for this region over the next 48 hours....There will be snowfall, and many areas could see some showery snowfall even at lower elevations....Evaporated cooling is a major playing in these scenarios and besides depending on the track, a secondary LP on wednesday could make life very interesting for some parts of the region....BTW, it's worth noting that whilst T850's of -5C or below are preferable for snow, snowfall can occur with T850's at -1C for instance, it all depends on the temperature profile for the air below the 850Hpa boundary

interestingly the west midlands (or at least my part..lol) is under met office advisory/warning for snow tuesday/wednesday...secondary LP on wednesday could especially make things interesting if it verifies

You see?...we don't have to spend millions on computer model software, or trawl through the cyber-jungle of the model output discussion thread, we just tell you to bugger off on holiday for a week and we're guaranteed to get whatever weather we desire! :w00t:

O6z GFS keeps the southern sliding momentum going for fridays system, in fact it's reverting back to earlier runs (from last friday I believe) when it showed this system as a channel low...Also this particular run would be of interest to us, as it would produce the potential of a heavy snow event for the Midlands!

06z GFS has the system considerably further south than previous model outputs, and now has a distinctly wintry spice added to the mix! Just popped the following post in the MOD thread thought I'd add it here as its relevant to the discussion... Interesting GFS run regarding fridays LP...My memory is hazy, but hasn't the GFS reverted back to its earlier runs from a few days back when it showed this system as a channel Low?...I'm sure I remember members posting on this....Interesting because there are tantalizing possibilities of a marginal snow event for central parts of the UK if this particular run verified?

Interesting GFS run regarding fridays LP...My memory is hazy, but hasn't the GFS reverted back to its earlier runs from a few days back when it showed this system as a channel Low?...I'm sure I remember members posting on this....Interesting because there are tantalizing possibilities of a marginal snow event for central parts of the UK if this particular run verified?

Good rounded post........at the current timescale(T96+) it would be unwise to look at the current model output and decide there and then whether or not fridays system is going to be a major 'player' or not...at the current timescale, model output is for trend spotting. The weather patterns are very volatile ATM and for me, currently FI starts at T48-T60....A good example of this fact is in the Met Office issuing country-wide wind warnings for friday, as it infers to me that at the current juncture even the Met Office (with all of their extra modeling software at their disposal aren't sure the track or strength of fridays progged system )

certainly not discounting the 18z, but it's a slight trend towards the 12z ECM.. In saying that I would reserve any preliminary judgement until tomorrows corresponding runs

A very, very high quality post John....I think some members either forget (or weren't aware) of your forecasting credentials prior to your Netweather contributions or the fact that for several years you were the Senior Forecaster for this site....New and old members alike could do a lot worse than taking heed of your posts (as well as showing a modicum of respect!)....To the permanent moderating team, although not strictly on-topic, I would appreciate it you would allow this post to stand, and posters replying, please respond via pm so the thread title stays relevant.....many thanks

I live less than 5 miles from Wildwood, it seems to have it's very own micro-climate!

Blimey, the ECM has caused mass confusion over on the model discussion thread as fridays potential monster storm has all but disappeared! interesting developments indeed!

Come on Mark! why so always negative?....I'm seeing a decent run of NWerlies following on from fridays system with conducive uppers....Why not try the 'glass is half-full' philosophy instead?

A quick question for the learned, FAX & GFS show an old occluded front and trough associated with tuesdays system which runs west to east across the country at around T72..What type of occlusion would this be? ie CF running up over the back of a warm front, or a classic wintry CF undercut type occlusion?...I'm presuming it's the latter as the post frontal air mass is cooler than pre-frontal (although seemingly not by much, if I'm reading the run correctly)....Cheers

Ideally yes, surface temperature are naturally lower amongst other things...I'm still waiting for the T72 FAX chart to come out (its still showing the previous T72 chart)...The 12z GFS has an old occluded front running through Western Wales at around 12z Hours to be over the Midlands after sun down, for a decent chance of wintryness, we don't the models to be more progressive in future runs...The spoiler is that there seems to be some milder air mixed in with this feature which is modeled to modify the T850's....Oh well, time will tell

Hmm, it seems that the first system is moving in a bit quicker than has been modelled over the past couple of days...12z GFS likes to bring in heavy driving rain through tomorrow evening into the over night hours, especially to the south of our region, with a narrow swathe of stronger winds passing through in the warm sector just ahead of an active cold front again especially to the southern parts of our region....We're then left in an unstable westerly pm airmass, with the strongest winds for the west midlands more likely leading into wednesday TBH, expect some strong gusts in any showers...Also wednesday is of interest as an occluded front with a trailing trough (denoted by the kink in the isobars) will pass west to east across the entire region , the timing of which could be important, as it could leave parts of the midlands with a 'wintery surprise'