A.J

I feel your pain, the capital seems to get it a lot, time for government to change the capital to Birmingham, so the storm patterns follow suite, that'll do for me nicely! lol

clearing skies to the south now (well, quite a bit of scud but clear in the 'business' part of the atmosphere) so eyes down to the radar to see what the south brings us later on, if anything...Steering winds are more or less due south, so for those in the west midlands, best to look for development on a line Dorset through Wiltshire into Gloucestershire for the next few hours

I think the reason this tough (passing through the Midlands) has weakened dramatically the past 15-30 mins or so is it's moving into some relatively stable air with little convective energy to the north and east of the midlands, compared to the post trough air mass to the south and west of the trough... Ha Ha, just noticed the trough has 'sprung' to life again as it pushes north & east of Birmingham......the weather, you just can't predict it!...lol

Actually Harry, that makes a lot of sense, will be watching the skies with interest the next few hours The last couple of radar images shows some general diminishing radar echoes, though still active on the SE flank (passing through Birmingham city centre).....Just looking to the skies to my south and it's somewhat clearer, can see well defined anvils to my east (and distantly to the south) what is noticeable is quite of lot of LLS, with scud moving quickly SE to NW whilst the mid-level clouds and steering winds are definitely west of south

There's another smaller cluster or organized convective stuff just behind this first trough (to the north of Hereford) which is developing quickly and is heading due north, straight for Telford (Image reproduced from NWx Radar)

Yes, Birmingham looks to be hit by torrential rain in the near future, the worst looks to slide 10-15 miles to my east, a definite squall line looks to be developing

hmm, interesting, 2 distinct rumbles of distant thunder heard to my south...Yep, and again, definitely thunder

looking good for some torrential rain in my area in a couple or so hours time! As far as storms for the west midlands are concerned, the jury is still out

Really?...all the forecasts & model consensus infer we're in a good shout of a thunderstorm today/tonight!....What are you basing your assumptions on?......or is it a bit of classic reverse psychological warfare against mother nature? :winky:

You didn't read my post properly Andy....Did you not see the 'Humour aside' part?......judging by your post, you missed that bit! Anyhoos, not a huge fan of BBC forecasts, they are catered for the masses (it's a TV broadcast, after all) but if Ian ends up nailing this forecast for the west country, then they'll be a few eggs on a few faces on other previously posted forecasts contained in this thread (I'm also not a big fan of UKASF as forecasts are 'over the top' & rarely accurate IMHO) a quick edit....a forecast from estofex has some potential (level 1 over much of England through tomorrow)....again, must stress that it is just potential atm, as for tomorrow, radar watching is the key

Ah, the reliable beeb forecast...lol....a very vague forecast for the masses...My 1st rule of BBC weather forecasts is simply if it's forecast, it aint happening, if it isn't forecast, it will.....lol Humour aside, and with respect to the BBC, as posted earlier, model consensus for the potential of thunderstorms in the given watch areas are good

Interesting........to add if the laser beam carries enough energy then layman's particle physics kicks in ie put enough energy and/or mass into a small enough space and you get a black hole..Ok, could be cool, it could enable particle physicists to actual test empirically for super-symmetry, string theory and quantum loop gravity theory, also just to please doomsday theorists, could theoretically spark a cosmological phase transition if our universe's vacuum energy state is not at it's true level (most cosmologists agree that the vacuum energy is metastable ie stable over a long period of time, but not infinitely long) nucleating a bubble of true vacuum energy, which would expand at the speed of light. Inside the bubble the laws of physics would be utterly different - the current laws of physics would simply not exist, nor would any structure bound by the current laws of physics...Now that I've worried a few members to death...lol...Worth noting that the above is purely theoretical, I'm sure plenty of research will be done to prevent such an occurrence!

I'm using Firefox, no problems accessing the links here, worth refreshing your browser/clearing your internet cache?

nope, I live near Walsall (10 miles or so) and it's been 2 storms only.....and TBH with one notable exception, convective activity & potential has been very poor

Oh right, sorry! the way it was posted, I inferred that Beverley was somewhere near here...lol

Bone dry here....Where's Beverly?

interesting?...well, that's one way to describe this 'footage'...lol.....It's typical Sun newspaper garbage, more akin to the Sunday Sport...It's simply a native woman bending over whilst carrying/emptying some kind of chamber pot/water holder....The rather big clue is the fact that the locals don't seem in the slightest bit interested....unless, of course, they are aliens themselves!

diddly squat in my neck of the woods...Jeez, this part of the country has been pants this year (and last year, and the year before) for storms (may9th being the exception) thank goodness I'm moving back down south next year!

Plenty of sferics now starting to flourish on the NW radar, especially over Dorset/Somerset, and certainly as CreweCold mentioned, worth us westerners keeping an eye on this for later...Also got my eye on that showery clump to the south and south east of Birmingham

Ironic, isn't it?...All summer we've been crying out for synoptics like today, with complex LP to the west and south of the UK, with troughs embedded in the southerly flow, high moisture profiles & plenty of energy in the atmosphere....Today we'll get scattered showers and the odd thunderstorm, whereas in mid-summer with daytime heating, this kind of setup would probably result in some strong thunderstorms and almost certainly an MCS drifting up from the near continent

Hmm....looking at the NW radar now with more than just a passing interest....Some interesting developments in the west country drifting slowly NNW...Some good t-storm parameters in that area, some increased SB CAPE, the atmosphere is bouyant at the lower levels, and lapse rates are high, aiding convection...Not expecting anything here to the north of Birmingham, but one never knows for sure... ...Just editing my horrific spelling...lol

A nice sunny start to the day, a tad chilly, but expecting it to be quite mild today, hopefully the rain out west will stay there and not spoil the weekend!

So what was the point of your post then? You're such a good help! ...I've found a couple in the seasonal archive, but not the rest

off topic, but nothing really to get excited about at this stage...Looks like a slow moving CF passing through monday according to the FAX charts, as it's slow moving, could be quite a bit of rainfall, but can't see anything stormwise occuring at this stage

Must admit Jane, it's been a poor year for our part of the world, storm wise, apart from a couple of crackers last May, diddly squat!