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Everything posted by A.J
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Just wondering if the archives for last winters regional forums are still available to view, if so, is it possible a member of the admin team could send me the link(s)? cheers AJ
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Convective Potential w/c Monday 17 October
A.J replied to Andy Bown's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Cheshire Gap streamer in effect today...Plenty of heavy showers now starting to filter down the Cheshire Gap, providing some nice cloudscapes to my northwest...Could well be quite a wet afternoon for my area -
Just passed through here, TBH, not a lot to report, marked decrease in wind, and 5 minutes of light/moderate rain
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Very squally here in the South Staffs....winds increasing by the minute..The intense precip on the squall line is about 25 miles to my North West, approaching Stoke..Should be interesting!
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In reply to this and a few other posters, I believe the squall line is maintaining strength...There seems to be a few corrupted radar frames during the past hour giving the illusion of the trough/front weakening...IMHO
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Winds are certainly picking up in the west midlands, very gusty at times....on a further note, a few sferics detected over the Lake District
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I was expecting to be quite skeptical, but I found the article very interesting, and actually makes IMO quite a bit of sense...I haven't much time to post indepth right now, but I'll expand on my thoughts tomorrow
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After a dry but generally cloudy day, we've had a wet evening with organised bands of, at times, heavy rain filtering down through the Cheshire Gap, and still quite a bit to come, judging by the radar
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Model Output Discussion - Early October Onwards
A.J replied to kold weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, the 12z run does indeed show something for coldies, but it's way, way out in FI....T252 shows LP moving out into the north sea, and then into Scandinavia, slowly filling, but draws in a keen NW to Northerly flow from T252 to T312 before HP reestablishes itself...This would infer wintry showers into northern parts of Scotland and possibly down the north seas coastline as -5C 850's flirt close to northern Scotland, but of course at the moment is pure FI, but a possible trend may be emerging (two of the past three GFS runs showing a brief northerly)....Anyhoos, in the short to medium term, mild TM air and SW'erly flow rules the roost, with HP lurking close to the south of the UK, ridging strongly enough to keep the bulk of the Atlantic systems out in the Atlantic -
Model Output Discussion - Early October Onwards
A.J replied to kold weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 06z GFS run shows no sign of the northerly hinted at on the overnight run....a generally west to SW flow out to T192 with HP close to the south, with LP anchored out in the Atlantic..This run if verified would give quiet, benign weather for the bulk of the country with more unsettled conditions flirting with the far NW...From T192 onwards into deep FI rPM flow would give a couple of showery days, especially for western parts, before the Azores High ridges towards the UK, and then anticyclonic weather dominates until the rest of the run. -
I must confess, the other half put the heating on for the first time since March this morning.....fair does, it was flippin' freezing this morning!
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A chilly day here in the NW Midlands, occasional showers & a blustery WNW wind, the wind though has gradually abated as the afternoon has worn on....Certainly the coldest feeling day since March
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6th October 2011 - Convective/storm Potential Discussion & Reports
A.J replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just had a look at the NW Extra rainfall accumulation chart for the past 12 hours....I've had 1/2 inch of rainfall last night in the form of convective ppn, which is by far the most rainfall in a 12 hour period that I've had since May 9th! -
6th October 2011 - Convective/storm Potential Discussion & Reports
A.J replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just seen a couple of flashes of distant lightning out to my east, probably somewhere in the region of Burton-Upon-Trent towards Tamworth -
6th October 2011 - Convective/storm Potential Discussion & Reports
A.J replied to Nick F's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yep, it was...and accompanied by some gusty winds...Rain has now passed through now -
Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..
A.J replied to conor123's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Right on the edge of the frontal cloud boundary, but the good news is that the cloud is readily breaking up now allowing for some good sunshine, and temps are responding, now up to 25C...lovely! -
19.1C here, dry and warm. but noticeably more cloud encroaching from the NW, quite thick cirrus and Altocumulus, a few chinks in the cloud, but suggests an increasingly cloudy day and suppressed temps
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Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..
A.J replied to conor123's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Recorded a maximum of 27.2C here in South Staffs at around 2:30 this afternoon....Occasional high cloud but still, an absolute stonker of a day...One more glorious day to come tomorrow, me thinks -
Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..
A.J replied to conor123's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I dug out my old Science Museum 433z weather station this morning after gathering dust in the loft...Still working and currently recording a shade temperature of 26.2C and still rising...Might just scrape 27C today...Remarkable stuff indeed! -
Indian Summer Storm Potential! [sept-oct 2011]
A.J replied to Robbie Garrett's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yep, good chance of thunderstorms in Bengal.....well the thread does say "Indian Summer Storm Potential"! ....I'll fetch me coat -
Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..
A.J replied to conor123's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I wouldn't be so sure, it's definitely the warmest day of the year here, and the humidity actually would be correct given a dewpoint of 17C and an 2m temp of 29C...numerous non-official weather stations are reporting 27C+ in the West Midlands...Official weather stations at Shawbury & RAF Cosford (both within 15 miles of me) are reporting recorded screen temps of 25C & 26C respectively -
Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..
A.J replied to conor123's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hmm, my weather station is reporting the following readings... Temperature: 29.1 °C Dew Point: 17 °C Humidity: 39% Wind: SW at 8km/h Pressure: 1017hPa TBH, it does feel like the hottest day of the year, I'm not convinced on the validity of my reading, it is shaded & screened though..yet it ties with the somewhat with the local www.wunderground.com stats for Penkridge, which is showing 32C (that surely can't be right, can it?) -
I totally agree with both posts...I, for one, have never been a believer that Einstein's theories of relativity are the 'be all and end all' of physics....and adding to this statement, IMO relativity only works in the 3 spacial dimensions and one dimension of time..M-Theory speculates that there are 11 spacial dimensions, 7 of which are curled up so small that they only exist on the quantum level, 3 spacial dimensions that we are aware of and that which our universe is structured upon, and one other large spacial dimension (call it for arguments sake the 4th large spacial dimension) nicknamed 'The Bulk' of which our universe is but a 3-dimensional membrane floating in this 4 dimensional 'Bulk' (hence M-theory speculates that there are an infinite number of 3 dimensional universes floating around in 'The Bulk' and each universe might only be separated by just millimeters in the 4th spacial dimension..A hypothetical 4 dimensional being would be able to materialize and de-meterialize at will at any point in our universe making the 'Light Speed Barrier' irrelevant, and Relativity utterly fails in this theoretical scenario...Indeed to take it a stage further, some cosmologists & particle physicists believe that the reason why Dark Matter is so elusive yet comprises of 23% of all matter in the universe, is because Dark Matter is actually Baryonic matter floating in the Bulk, or even physical structures in another membrane universe separated from our universe by the 4th large spacial dimension, thus what cosmologists detect is a shadow or cross-section of these such structures
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What a beautiful day it was today...Temps up to 23C and barely a cloud in the sky...The one change that's due tomorrow is the fact that the temps will increase to 26-27C...Hmm, I think I can live with that!
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Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..
A.J replied to conor123's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Likewise Luke, an absolutely stunning day here in South Staffs, temps in the low seventies, and looking a good bet for breaking the 80's fahrenheit mark in the next couple of days here!