A.J

It will be interesting to see how tonights rain/possible embedded thunder pans out..The first pulse of 'stuff' seems further west than progged by the models..by between 50-100 miles further west IMO

Thanks for the TORRO update Jane ......So then possibilites for some embedded storm activity overnight within the trough....If nothing else, it should bring some much needed overnight rainfall for our area

the radar has zoomed into life the past 30 mins or so...plenty of bright echoes over SE wales pushing into gloucestershire and worcester and more discrete echoes over south shrops pushing into staffs, might yet be an exciting early evening for us!

Bone dry again here in South Staffs....I just back from Birmingham city centre, and there looked to be a promising cell building up to the south of Brum

impressive new feature going up over Belgium...Looks like a bomb going off! http://www.sat24.com/gb

That was supposed to read UKASF! doh!

It is moving into the channel but the main centre of lightning activity is staying near the french coast with new cells erupting further south and east...I think Estofex have got this one right so far, but I'm quietly confident that once the MCS makes landfall it will reinvigorate as nocturnal cooling takes effect completing the transformation into elevated thunderstorms (my understanding is that the MCS is surface based, so once it hits cold water, convection is weakened as the surface heat source is lost, however warm moist air is still being advected NE into the MCS, and as cloud tops continue to cool, a sharp temperature gradient is generated between the warm mid-level air and cold upper air thus regenerating mid-level convection.....I think!)

I'm not seeing that Paul...at least not on lightning activity...Sferics are on the wane somewhat the past 30 mins or so as the storm cores are trying to hug the french coast, however PPN is definitely increasing as the MCS tries to cross the channel.....Interestingly though Strikestar is to believed, then sferic detection is on the increase running along a line of convective PPN pushing into Devon/Dorset...The reason I say 'if strikestar is to be believed' is because it looks like it picking up sperious detections over Shropshire & the welsh borders

Looking rather good for you!......I'm in the NEC (No Effing Chance) Zone in south Staffordshire...lol

nope, just a case of TV being crap again ...lol

Hmm...that mesoscale system is starting to weaken on its western flank, but maintaining strength on its east and north east quadrant, some very bright echoes on radar and frequent strike detections...Bare in mind that this cluster almost certainly started as SB storms over France, I would expect the MCS to weaken as it crosses the water, but quite possibly reinvigorate once over land again as more warm moist air is advected in the mid-levels in the form of elevated thunderstorms...As a rough guide a line from say Portsmouth to Hythe streaming north east should expect the greatest probability of being affected by these storms overnight

I did....check the post from 30 mins ago

A few strikes have been detected out of that band approaching S Devon/Torbay....A lovely sferic grab from the NWx radar, shows up an MCS over northern France beautifully...It moving slowly northwards currently, with new storms firing on both western & eastern flanks of the system....Could be a VERY interesting night for southern parts

Its looking very nasty here in the midlands....really menacing stratocumulus....might just squeeze a drop of drizzle!

Just mulling over an idea of starting a new thread....."The Midlands non-convection Forecast - Non- Discussion & Reports" ........seems rather apt! Oh well, time to radar watch tonight, hopefully it will show a nice collection of red sferic detections for those sarf-eastern folks tonight/tomorrow

I feel your pain!.....After promising start to the spring with warmth and a couple of storms in the first 10 days of May, it's been without a shadow of a doubt the most boring, nondescript, ankle-slashing with a blunt knife miserable excuse of a summer, certainly for the midlands!.....I wouldn't even mind if it snowed, or even rained 3 legged frogs, as long as it does something!!

Well, up here in the west midlands, it looks like a few hours of moderate rain and then a day of drizzle is on the cards for the overnight period into tomorrow...I fear the only electrical activity I will see tonight/tomorrow will be when I put the kettle on for a morning cuppa!

Blimey I must have been knackered last night as I've just read about storms & heavy rain in my vicinity last night...I didn't hear a thing!

Some very impressive anvils in my southern skies....I've been tracking them whilst driving along the A5, and would estimate them somewhere south of Birmingham...anyone in that area confirm sferics fom these?

Stuck in limbo land here, too far south to catch any brightness & potentially thundery showers, whilst too far north to be affected by the deluge further south...Its simply overcast with frontal mid-level cloud & distinctly chilly

I wondered in here and thought "why is everybody moaning"...I came in expecting to be offered a nice glass of Chardonnay and to discuss corkage......then I realised, its the wrong kind of 'whine'....

Yes, it's all true!...plus did you know that every beer you drink and every cigarette you smoke knocks another 10 minutes off your life...I should know, I was born in 1970 and apparently I died in 1842!

Which day are we talking about folks?....sunday or sunday night into monday?....maybe I'm missing something, but yes a few daytime/early evening storms are possible from surface based convection, but IMO it's far more probable of elevated storms as warm moist air advects north-east and destabilizes sunday night & well into monday for a good part of central/southern England looking at the 12z

Try this..... http://www.skywarn.org.uk/plotter ....Skywarns own do-it yourself chart builder...you choose the parameters (time, SBCAPE, MLCAPE, wind shear etc etc) and it provides a custom UK chart for you..The charts are based on the GFS model....Alternatively there's always the NW Extra subscription, I believe you need the full subscription to view MLCAPE charts

A quick whine.....no storms, no summer, bugger.. There...I feel better for saying that!!