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A.J

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by A.J

    for those model enthusiasts who love a bit of indepth analysis, the key number to remember is 3150

    anything less and its a damp squib washout, hitting that magic number or even better, then its a guarenteed snow fest !

    what is this number and why is it significant I hear you ask ?

    This is simple, its the amount of exclamtion marks Sheiky has used in the past week in this thread 🤪🤣

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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by A.J

    1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

    Thing is for global models a shift of say a 100 miles is miniscule worldwide but for our small location is big.

    The adjustment north and south of the battleground will continue I am sure. 

    It looks like we will see number of wriggling fronts heading in during the coming days indicating the sharpness of the boundary layers.This will continue to test even the short range models.

    Snowfall will show up for many at some point by the looks but doubts continue of it laying the further south we go where freezing levels are marginal away from elevation.

    We could have done with the Arctic trough just a little sharper and further south before the Atlantic approach.

    A top post as always Phil, but no doubt largely ignored by many on here because it doesnt say what they want to hear so we'll just all have to put up with pages of  "major upgrade, its moved south by 25 meters and the sweet spot is right over my house etc etc etc"

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    Model Output Discussion - Into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    well the gfs should be ashamed of itself i presume that was its last throw of the dice!

    Contrary to the belief of some, it a computer based set of complicated equations and algorithms, and not a sentient being

    My morning cup of coffee is physically more likely to be ashamed of itself than a computer model 🤣

    • Like 21
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by A.J

    19 minutes ago, Jon Chalk said:

    There's some big, dark clouds and heavy rain down Crewkerne / Ilminster way - don't remember seeing any of that sort of things in the models.

    Anyone know what's driving this that the models don't show?

    edit:...oh and Blitzortnung is showing a bit of lightning further West from there, between Taunton/Glastonbury...

    to be fair, the UKV had a signal for a few showers over the west country down to the south coast this evening so its pretty much bang on

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

    Don’t wish to derail the thread, however was that a Saturday afternoon? The middle of a trio of fantastic storm outbreaks in 6 days. The Thursday evening spectacular elevated storms, the Saturday an afternoon MCS, the following Tuesday a night time spectacle.

    I remember it well Andy, greenish clouds, large hail and vivid lightning in Lyneham that day.

     

    Back to the present, I wish I were still down south, my particular part of the NE has not yet added the word 'thunderstorm' to their vocabulary, they simply never happen here

    • Like 1

    Storm Arwen

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Paul said:

    Good to see you Arron, take care up there.

    Hi Paul, thank you.......We moved up to Sunderland about 18 months ago....I just home from delivering in Peterlee, the sea state is still relatively benign looking out from Roker, but the skies are starting to look angry to the north, with sleet and probably some wet snow incoming. Winds are also starting to pick up noticeably...It has been quite blustery since this morning, but now a steady increase in mean speeds

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

    And dearest netweather geeks.. I propose we all swear a solemn pact between each of us.... NOT A GOD DARN WORD TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS FOR NOW PLEASE!

    I’m sure we have all been there

     

    I've already told my kids it will snow but haven't yet divulged which decade..... so we're all good. .....hello to all by the way,....haven't been in here for years it seems 

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 hours ago, island lad said:

    Really ?

    South coast has been a no go too

    you miss the point....southern coastal areas have been in the hunt this week, storms along the devon & cornish coasts and plenty of distant channel lightning displays....the NE however has had very benign weather, no heatwave, apart from an occsional glimpse of some Ac Cas floating around, not one flash (distant or not) rumble or anything remotely resembling thundery activity....thats my point

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