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A.J

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    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    And with the temperature over a mile up being 25c in the south the profile of the atmosphere may really not be conducive to convection. 

    Yes, Chris, in that scenario with other parameters in play (warm moist lower level air, cold pool overspilling aloft to steepen lapse rates, trough etc etc), elevated storms (above the 850hpa boundary) would be the most likely form of convective weather...Surface convection would be limited, with a pretty strong cap (inversion) in the lower atmos

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    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    just a few thoughts regarding CAPE charts posted over the past 24 hours for next week......remember this is a measurment of convective potential energy and not a sure fire indicator of 'monster storms'.....CAPE is meaningless if other parameters aren't condusive....what is required is mass scale ascent of warm moist air, cold air spilling over aloft and a trigger (such as a trough from the west).....not had chance to peruse the charts to see if all the parameters will be in place, more a word of caution to those who see high CAPE (surface, mixed layer and most unstable) and think bang on storms :oldsmile:

    • Like 22

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

    look at the southwest of that cell and how its trying to push a little west 

    cloud.gif

    That's the Cirrus Anvil.....the storm updrafts are on the NE/E flank

    My other half summed up tonight's wiltshire storm potential savagely when I mentioned ..."OOh, looking quite dark towards the south east!"....to which she replied..."That's because it's night time you berk, goodnight"  *sigh*

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    It’s not negative as you can see it’s a fair reflection of the situation and others playing catch-up now they’ve released the actual positioning is slightly different to model output. 

    Rain likely for most of the day for many, a poor day all in all. Surface based storms highly unlikely now in the SE due to lack of insolation and only a slight chance of elevated storms this evening east of say Brighton is my take on this....

    Chris, over on UKWW you seem a upbeat poster, on NW you seem the opposite, it's like an alter-ego kicks in....sorry, just an observation, nothing personal.............that aside, today, yes, cloud cover could be the major inhibiting factor for sb storms.....I'm not too fussed for my locale, anything would be a bonus, but it would be nice after this miserable excuse of early summer for at least part of the UK getting in on a bit of 'plume action'

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    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Harry said:

    I’m keeping my expectations low for NW Kent - notwithstanding Nick F’s gorgeous forecast, models this morning for me, including WRF-NMM, Euro4, NetWx NMM and UKMO keep the extent of instability/convective rain quite limited to Kent/Sussex. I consider myself to be on the western most extent of the plume (based on WRF-NMM MUCAPE model), which while in itself can be a good thing (max destabilisation between plume and drier air), it also often happens that if storms organise then it is the eastern extent of storms that often become most electrically activity with the northern and western extents mostly rain with occasional electrics.

    Lets see how it plays out - am certainly not ruling out a Benelux shift.

     

    aye, a MCS with an  easterly shift bodes ill generally speaking with sferics normally limited to its eastern flank, northern and western flanks normally suffer from too saturated atmos profiles.....that aside, it's just nice to able to chat about the potential of plume generated storms !

    here at the mo, overcast skies with quite a thick Cirrus/Ac veil, hoping for clearer skies later on for a possible light show

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    Arome showing the bulk of activity well to my east - however, this might not be the worst thing. Sometimes it's better to not be underneath the storms as night falls - if I can find somewhere with a good view to the east, I should be able to see a good light show (IF anything happens).

    Likewise, I'm south of Swindon, so hopefully might see a distant light show to my east tonight.....Sometimes a distant light show can be just as good as an overhead storm IMO

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Initial warm front English Channel further east than earlier ancipations. This will likely have the effect of shifting the whole system further east later today and overnight. Probably a Brighton eastwards only event, Estofex not interested at all in any notable activity over the UK for the forecast period. Standard let down....

    Still some new cells a popping on approach to the south east coast, as usual a big wet mass of decaying rain now heading for Dorset.

    Do you ever post anything positive?....or is it some kind of insane reverse psychology?....lol

    some elevated convection breaking out over Devon, South Somerset & Dorset, worth keeping an eye on

     

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Polar Maritime
    To move discussion on..

    26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Azazel don't get to hung up on some of the more negative posts, showing the worse case scenario... The general consensus is for warmer conditions to come in.... Next week  could become quite showery later, perhaps even some storms, and there are growing signs of high pressure being more of a key player  ome months end!!! Trust me it's better than the current garbage we have had. 

    I think Azazel is hung up on the temps shown in that chart rather than negative posts!......

    My broadbrush interpretation of the major model suites outputs over the past 48 hours is one of an improvement on current conditions, not 'high summer heat' by any stretch of the imagination, but the feeling that weather conditions surely can't get any worse!.....In saying that though, some of the output gives a 'soft' signal of a return to unsettled weather with troughing close to the UK throughout the model runs. One can hope that this 'groundhog day' scenario will not verify, but one can't rule it out either, fingers crossed the former will be truer to the mark 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Despite all of the doomsters on here, there are still positive signs going forward.

    1. There is a pattern change from this vile current situation to become more of a NW / SE split - typical summer fare, but miles better than what we have now.

    2. It will warm up.

    3. Heights look like falling over Greenland.

    4. The jet shows signs of moving north.

    Sometimes the models take a while to latch on. The positive signs may just be seeds at the moment, but good things can grow from those seeds a little later down the line.

    I have no problem with people posting what the models show, but it's the constant cherry picking of the worst options that becomes really wearing sometimes.Can't remember who it was, but one member criticised another for posting an FI chart showing summery conditions, then another day posted an unsettled chart in FI to try to prove their point. Total hypocrisy!

    I'm more than willing to acknowledge hat the whole of June may be a write-off, but it's very unlikely. I'm pretty sure there will be some hot / very hot spells this summer.

    likewise, I wish some would stop cherry pick charts from FI showing the best options (which also rarely ever verify).......One for the mods, maybe it's an idea to bring back the short term model discussion for say up to T120 and then have a more general longer range model thread for FI out to the far extreme (long range CFS that I know some like to post for giggles).....Maybe a return of the technical model discussion thread as there are some fine analytical non-biased posters on here @knocker @johnholmes  (for example) whos posts sometimes get drowned by quite a few less experienced folk who like to point score to argue their point

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Fear not, I have it on good authority that the model output is about to swing dramatically....It will be baking hot, very oppressive, bone dry with the most amazing elevated heat storms.....Sadly I'm talking about the forecast on Venus for the next 4 billion years :crazy:

    back here in Blighty, the 12z suites for the forseeable future can be summed up in one word... "Changeable"

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