[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards]

looks like some storms breaking out to my S/SE.....plenty of mid-level instability...some precip reaching the ground but mostly virga from high based Ac Cas

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards]

Intersting...as per Dan's convective forecast, it looks like some elevated convection is occurring over southern counties ahead of the front 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards]

so, what's new?.....I see the Sherminator's still here......a genuine storm chasing legend that man.......flash bang, Harry, Dan, EES91, snow-joke....nice to see some familiar faces......but the most important question is 'was there any Ac Cas in Newton Poppleford today ?' 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is that you Aj poolshark?

ya ya ya 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards]

It's been a looooooong time since I posted on NW, but the living leg-end is back, and is watching the hi-res models with interest for the period covering the next 48 hours !.....An active front spilling up from the south tomorrow morning with some possible elevated embedded convection, and then all eyes on what fires over Northern France/Benelux tomorrow evening 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

managed to squeeze a flash out of a shower that passed to my west 30 mins ago....a few more weakly electrified showers pushing up from the south coast heading due north for Bath and then onto the west midlands

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

11 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I thought I was too far West but i'm in the purple box again. Don't make me go out in the sweltering heat again people.

same here, on the edge of the purple box, but this time I feel I am too far west, but yesterday most of the models had us too far east and look what happened!...all to play for

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

any chance of some proper model discussion as opposed to reams of posts saying the same thing (i.e tomorrow's hot temps)...there are other threads for current weather, guess the hotspot etc!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else noticed how fast these forks are?

lightning fast.....I'll fetch me coat lol

round 5, yes 5, incoming!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

the biggest story of the night though is the serious outbreak of measels in central southern england....alarming!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Broke my storm duct in serious style here tonight. Dare I say it, that was even better than the Bournemouth supercell of 2015 as it was a direct hit.

Didnt get much in the way of photography as most of the lightning was high based and cc, but it was flashing honestly at 3-4 per second at some points.

Seemed to take an age to move closer but suddenly it picked up steam and with a tremendous roar of rain we bolted for the cars.

it was at this point CGs started raining down all around and anvil crawlers kept lighting up the sky directly over the head to the point it was blinding at times and looked like broad daylight.

I started to panic and chucked my keys in the boot with my tripod and couldn’t drive anywhere. The thunder was absolutely constant now and lightning flashes were all I could see in my peripheral vision. It was a bit like a stereotypical horror film. I started becoming hysterical and climbed into the boot via the parcel shelf to retrieve my keys at which point we drove out of there (up high on a hill with tall trees all around)

the drive back to Andover was like something out of an apocalypse movie. The horizon constantly lighting up, CG’s thudding down everywhere. Trees down in the road.

it was terrifying and glorious. 

so then, just to clear up any confusion, you're saying you had a bit of a thundery shower? 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

'scuse the language but all I can say is 'holy shitpants!!!!'.........what a round 3!.....power went down, roiling clouds spewing out copious bolts of lightning, CG's, anvil crawlers, biiiiiig hail, enough water to make me think we'd been hit by a tsunami.........oh, and hello, here's come round 4 to my south! 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

yup, here's come some big hail!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Andy Pepler said:

how bloody epic was that AJ ...:) might have round 2 aswell 

round 2?....how about round 3, there's a new storm developing in situ, rightt overhead, still no ppn, although the multicell cluster over salibury plain might soon change that!...looks especially nasty!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

words fail me, a simply incredible display of elevated lightning!!......the best I have ever seen and then some!......no rain at all just an orgasm of light!!

and round 2 is incoming from the south and this looks particularly potent with a strong hail core by the looks of the radar

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

distant lightning to my South and south west (presumably from the devon & dorset storms)

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Mitch perrott said:

explanation please...

Yes, I'd like an explanation into what are you referring to in that edited image?......lol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

pokey little number just gone up near Barnstaple/Bideford.......discrete cells over northern france drifting NNE, and now strikes detected west of the channel islands.......lights, action, camera!

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

aha, unless there's anaprop issues, the first discrete cells have fired in the english channel west of the channel Islands

 

edit, unsurprisingly, there are anaprop issues....bugger ....lol.....as they've just disappeared

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

current state of play here in north Wilts

 

1) looking west, patchy Alto Cumulus

 

2) Looking south, patchy Ac Cas (note sign of towering)

 

3) Looking south east, thickening Ac Cas with definite signs of towering

) 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So will I, oh I’m already here  The clifftop view is awesome for watching cells fire anywhere upto 30-40miles out in the channel! Will be there with my late evening storm chasing essentials - can of monster and a bag of heatwave Doritos!

Now you're talking.......personally I'd mud wrestle my own grandmother for a good storm and uber large bag of heatwave doritos....lol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think I’m gonna head for Andoversford tonight. Get there as early as possible and find a vantage point with emergency shelter nearby (bridge or something )

Andoversford as in along the A40?.....if so a good spot....I would recommend as well Birdlip on the A417 north of Cirencester, it's on top of an escarpment offering panoramic views to the West and North (to Wales and almost as far north as Birmingham) ....I've watched many a storm there, the views are fantastic and it's roughly only 10 miles or so from Andoversford

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

I will be soooo glad when thursday is over so we can get back to sensible model discussion....lol.......It's been like obsessive compulsive disorder in here the past couple of days with the fixation in the majority of posts for high temperatures!

short term modelling (overnight suites) continues to show a risk of strong possible severe thunderstorms tonight over the west country, spilling up into northern England, but as mentioned elsewhere, storms may well start to decay as atmospheric profiles become saturated thus limiting lightning potential as we move into the second part of the night....Wednesday will be all about how much detritus will be left over which will inhibit temps if said storm remnants linger....Thursday will be hot and sunny for most, with an increasing risk of surface based (initially) storms breaking out over CS England moving north (which may well inhbit surface temps due to attendant cloud cover)with elevated imports perhaps brushing the SE overnight thursday...Friday seems a decent but cooler day for the majority (still very warm in the SE) as a complex area of low pressure anchored off Ireland throws a series of fronts across the country from west to east....Saturday becomes interesting as the fronts stall out for a while over the spine of the country which increases the risk of heavy thundery rain for many given the marked boundary between cooler, fresher air to the west and risidual heat and convective energy to the east, certainly a feature to watch the next few days

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

23 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this!

Seems quite a long time since the UK and Ireland had such a widespread risk all at the same time?

 

Slap bang in the middle of the severe risk area......that'll do nicely....Carlsberg don't storm risk maps, but if they did.........

edit....and in the Estofex level 2 zone

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z UKV - No change. Pretty much identical to the charts I posted earlier.

pretty crap then for most of us