[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

reached 32c on my sensor.........shame about the utter lack of a proper stormy breakdown....it seems these days that even places millions of miles ooop north near the arctic circle get elevated plume storms whilst we get naff all.....last summer and this summer (so far) utterly pathetic for storms

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Might be one of the best decisions you make all year

ooh I don't know....we went to eastbourne a couple of years ago camping and thought the place was a bit of a dump.....lol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

off to bed......really can't be bothered to hear about how the SE has been hammered again......one day, one day, Wilts will have it's day again lol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

8 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Chasing now - set off from Cirencester, heading for reading currently, will assess from there

Reading's nott a bad shout Sam.....I'm thinking somewhere west of London looks good

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't worry too much.

My intent on posting what is being shown by that model is just to give another perspective that the majority cannot see. I expect the evolution will not be that straightforward, but interesting nonetheless.

a moderator perk?......damn I should ask for back pay...lolol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just going by the 12Z, i'd either get myself to somewhere between Bognor and Eastbourne, or if you didn't want to go down that far, perhaps somewhere between Hertfordshire and Essex?!

I was going to say the opposite.. lol
The good thing about the UKV is, each run starts with current observations and runs 8 times a day. It's just these are dreadful synoptics for pinning anything down.

the trend is too far east for me though mate.....looking at the steering flows, I need more of a northerly component, looking for storms to fire west of Rennes (more towards Brest)......certainly the eastern flank looks far tastier with plenty of energy to sustain during the night........I'm going for the 'hope I'm pleasantly surprised' mode tonight, hence the banning of looking at the radar (we'll see how long that lasts...lol)

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

enough though in that case to safely call a no-storm show for this area....won't waste my time radar watching tonight

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I'm on a 6pm-4am night shift tonight.  Will hope the best action is at 4am,  as it will be daylight and I'll walk across London Bridge with the city as a backdrop or The Shard.   

Will be radar watching for sure.

having perused the latest models and seen the various convective forecasts, I'll be watching the back of my eye lids

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Hmm.. I don't think it will be  - If I had to put money on it I would say Bristol has a higher chance of seeing lightning overnight than London.  That's a huge punt I know but will see.

very doubtful.....a lack of instability, energy and bouyancy for areas rest of London according to hi-res (nmm) modelling)....3 key ingredients for any type of thunderstorm........hope it's modelling it all wrong and instability is further west, but  I doubt it

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

59 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I am calling this storm Thunderstorm Ian Hislop

Here are the missing charts courtesy of PJB @ UKWW

 

 

#thunderstormianhislop

oh wonderful, bloody Sarf East again.......what does it take to get a decent storm in my area....used to have lots now diddly squat since april last year.....overall despite looking great up to about 2 days ago, everything has it's usual easterly shunt......that's my moan for the day

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Today is basically a throw a dart at a map of southern England and hope for the best. Just about every single model has a different track for the storms moving out of the channel. 

We do have a rare level 2 from estofex across the SE though!

http://www.estofex.org/

Was thinking the same thing Dan....I was literally just thinking "hmm, is there a westerly bias on the NMM as everything tonight is modelled much further west than other modelling" 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

01z is 2am BST

it's still utterly wrong, if you saw the chart for 00z you'd know why

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I will take both please 

the first one is already utterly wrong....lol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

for my location, go home 18z NMM, you're drunk !

 

and tomorrow night, Tuted as a newt....lol

 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

looks like a elevated storm in firing in the Channel, heading for the dorset coast

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

11 minutes ago, TomW said:

Tomorrow night looks like a much better chance but still looks mainly confined to the South East

in house NMM is still quite bullish on elevated convection/storms for parts of the west country overnight, especially north of the area, Bristol/Gloucestershire/Wilts as well as Devon, whereas other model suites aren't, hence my fence sitting and radar watching

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

8 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Weird. It could of just been that the lightning detecting sites like those didn't detect it, because that can happen sometimes.

it happens a lot to be honest

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

god, this thread is frustrating to read at times....talk of 'non-plume events' etc.....if some think that, then they need to read what a spanish plume is, because the model outputs prog one, and have consistantly modelled one for several days now..... end of discussion on that one!

Those of us who have posted regularly in the convective threads over the years has discussed plumes many a time as it it generally leads to our weather passion (storms) but it seems to be en vogue to plaster the expression 'plume' all over the model thread as if everyone's suddenly experts on them......sorry for the bluntness,and apologies if my post has offended anyone but it needs mentioning.......Have a read in the learning sub-forums for excellent threads from the likes of Nick Finnis, TWS, & John Holmes (IIRC) for understanding summer plumes over the UK

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

not too sure what to think about elevated storm potential here tonight, model outputs show quite a variance and radar is quite different to what is also modelled......a couple of days ago, I thought it looked very good along the M4 corridior....now if someone says to me 'will we see storms tonight?' my answer would be 'how long is a piece of string?'.....I simply don't know, I'll be radar watching from about 9pm to see what happens

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 12z rolling out and I refuse to believe the ridiculously low 2m temps with the 15 to 20C uppers. Its like Beast from the East in mid January and overnight temps not falling below freezing.

Worth noting - certainly for the 06z GFS (not yet commenting on the 12z) an issue for suppression of temps until later on this week is excessive cloud cover.....Those who subscribe to NWx will have seen this on the more indepth model output charts than the freebies.....freely available FAX charts also show an almost quasi-stationary front draping the spine of the country until thursday.......In our climate, without direct insolation, 25C+ is very hard to achieve....With more in the way of sunshine later on in the week towards next weekend, temperatures will rocket.....Believe me though, low to mid 20's under heavy cloud with high humidity will feel darned warm and for quite a few, unpleasant 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Out of my temporary summer hibernation seeing as there’s some pretty outlandish heat showing up .

Not sure what the record is for highest 850 temp ever recorded in the UK but a couple of those ECM ensembles showing 27 would surely be exceptionally rare.

Unfortunately for heat lovers the GFS really is on a different page with the low and high set up .

Without the high to the ne it’s not possible to draw up the hottest air on its western flank .

Looking at the ECM ensemble mean and spread , the latter shows that the 20 850 value is almost nailed on for at least the far south which does call into question the GFS view.

We’ll see during the day whether there’s any backtrack from it .

This one time Nick, I'm in love with your limpet trough just west of us, may it stay there a long time 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

16 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 6z has put its downgrade shoes on, today its reduced the temps for my area from 32C over three days next week to just the high 20s. Another observation is bbc weather had 31C for London next week which has now been downgraded to just 28C.

Good god almighty, the publically available portfolio of model suites show a classic spanish plume with remarkably warm/hot weather, whilst taking in account what a generally miserable summer we've all had to enjoy and you're grumbling about a 'downgrade' to 28C?....Carlsberg don't do trolls, but if they did........be off with you...lol

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

52 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Here's a good couple of sites with info on June 28th 2012 for anyone interested, to me this day is THE benchmark for UK storms.

https://www.stratusdeck.co.uk/28th-june-2012

https://hinckleyweatherblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/leicestershire-supercell-storms-of-28th-june-2012/

thanks for those links, ties in with my own memories nicely 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Tuesday nights action was all elevated within an elevated plume off the continent and was moving in a SW to NE direction, clipping only the south east of the UK. Sunday nights storms may be similar in that they would be elevated but may affect more of us with a more S to N movement. With increasing heat and humidity from Monday day time onwards, any storms that develop by day are likely to be surface based with CAPE right down to the surface as opposed to being only elevated. We are likely to get home grown storms in addition to those moving up from France.

A surface based storm brings a higher risk of severe weather than elevated (although elevated storms can still bring severe weather). It is unlikely that the CAPE being shown on GFS/NMM will be released to that extent, but even half of that CAPE with the jet stream overhead would be able to produce severe thunderstorms that are not often seen in the UK. Think 28th June 2012.

28th june 2012 was a truly remarkable day.....the previous evening elevated thunderstorms erupted over SW England and Eire as a negatively tilted shortwave trough destabilized....early the following morning (28th) Elevated convection fired wuickly (around 7am) in the Welsh Marches which quickly became severe moving NE to affect the west midlands around mid morning (My village where Ilived at the time was subject to flash flooding)...This multicell cluster maintained strength to pass through Yorks and exited the NE coast early afternoon.....Meanwhile in the clearence behind, elevated storms firing further south (midlands) quickly rooted into the boundary layer became surface based, severe and then supercellular giving fist sized hail and several tornadoes through Leicestershire and Lincolnshire. This spectacular weather was realised with about 2000j/kg of both SB & MLCAPE to tap into, something more akin to tornadic outbreaks in the mid-west....Meanwhile in the SE of England, with plenty of SBCAPE in place but a strong inversion in place, it remained dry IIRC

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards]

It will be interesting how this all evolves......current modelling infers a set up similar to June 2012 (subject to change though)