A.J

Yes, Chris, in that scenario with other parameters in play (warm moist lower level air, cold pool overspilling aloft to steepen lapse rates, trough etc etc), elevated storms (above the 850hpa boundary) would be the most likely form of convective weather...Surface convection would be limited, with a pretty strong cap (inversion) in the lower atmos

just a few thoughts regarding CAPE charts posted over the past 24 hours for next week......remember this is a measurment of convective potential energy and not a sure fire indicator of 'monster storms'.....CAPE is meaningless if other parameters aren't condusive....what is required is mass scale ascent of warm moist air, cold air spilling over aloft and a trigger (such as a trough from the west).....not had chance to peruse the charts to see if all the parameters will be in place, more a word of caution to those who see high CAPE (surface, mixed layer and most unstable) and think bang on storms

Quality...lol and as I've always said, get the cold in first and the snow will come

when I see SM posting in the summer, I'm expecting a rogue chart showing the -20c isotherm slap bang over the country with a raging frigid NE'erly

is that a composite or single exposure......either way, bloody good

That's the Cirrus Anvil.....the storm updrafts are on the NE/E flank My other half summed up tonight's wiltshire storm potential savagely when I mentioned ..."OOh, looking quite dark towards the south east!"....to which she replied..."That's because it's night time you berk, goodnight" *sigh*

The UK is self explanatory.....The 'V' denotes the sign storms make at me as they get shunted east of my locale...

The Caen cells look like Kent clippers at the mo, but steering flow, I believe will back to a more SSW-NNE flow as the night progresses as opposed to the current WSW-ENE flow

An area of interest to me to watch now onwards is over Brest to the Channel Islands....I think elevated storms will fire in that area over the next few hours....There are subtle hints on radar showing a sharp increase in localised ppn near the channel islands currently

H, if I don't get a storm tonight, my mood will be Ac Exasperatus ! lol

Chris, over on UKWW you seem a upbeat poster, on NW you seem the opposite, it's like an alter-ego kicks in....sorry, just an observation, nothing personal.............that aside, today, yes, cloud cover could be the major inhibiting factor for sb storms.....I'm not too fussed for my locale, anything would be a bonus, but it would be nice after this miserable excuse of early summer for at least part of the UK getting in on a bit of 'plume action'

aye, a MCS with an easterly shift bodes ill generally speaking with sferics normally limited to its eastern flank, northern and western flanks normally suffer from too saturated atmos profiles.....that aside, it's just nice to able to chat about the potential of plume generated storms ! here at the mo, overcast skies with quite a thick Cirrus/Ac veil, hoping for clearer skies later on for a possible light show

Morning Andy, long time no speak......after a throughly miserable start to summer, it's nice to be able to get into a 'elevated plume storm' mindset again'

yes it is, but in view of what I read over on UKWW this morning, it seems that east of this region (London, Kent, Sussex, Essex etc) are in a prime spot.....The steering flow has too much of an easterly component to keep Wilts in play....That's not to rule out of rogue storm though

Likewise, I'm south of Swindon, so hopefully might see a distant light show to my east tonight.....Sometimes a distant light show can be just as good as an overhead storm IMO

Do you ever post anything positive?....or is it some kind of insane reverse psychology?....lol some elevated convection breaking out over Devon, South Somerset & Dorset, worth keeping an eye on

A quick summary of the 06z GFS..... 'Meh........apart from a couple of warm days in London next week'.......an average of 15-19C daytime maxima in my locale throughout the run is most certainly not warm before anyone jumps in

we already have temps in the 40's here.....Fahrenheit, that is

I think Azazel is hung up on the temps shown in that chart rather than negative posts!...... My broadbrush interpretation of the major model suites outputs over the past 48 hours is one of an improvement on current conditions, not 'high summer heat' by any stretch of the imagination, but the feeling that weather conditions surely can't get any worse!.....In saying that though, some of the output gives a 'soft' signal of a return to unsettled weather with troughing close to the UK throughout the model runs. One can hope that this 'groundhog day' scenario will not verify, but one can't rule it out either, fingers crossed the former will be truer to the mark

likewise, I wish some would stop cherry pick charts from FI showing the best options (which also rarely ever verify).......One for the mods, maybe it's an idea to bring back the short term model discussion for say up to T120 and then have a more general longer range model thread for FI out to the far extreme (long range CFS that I know some like to post for giggles).....Maybe a return of the technical model discussion thread as there are some fine analytical non-biased posters on here @knocker @johnholmes (for example) whos posts sometimes get drowned by quite a few less experienced folk who like to point score to argue their point

Plenty of convection going on now here as the rain band has moved north of the area..... temps quickly rising in response to some strong sunshine

hopefully about 500 miles further west so we can tap into some serious heat and energy for storms instead!

The GFS continues to churn out runs with LP either over or close to the UK for the forseeable future....it all looks a bit 'Corbyn' to me i.e unable to make its mind up and looking pretty unpalatable to the masses.......On the plus side, thank goodness the modle output doesn't dictate the weather eh?

a modicum on interest for my part of the world with a few cells that have popped up near the Channel Isles, intense rainfall with sporadic lightning.....I don't know if they're surface based or elevated in nature

Fear not, I have it on good authority that the model output is about to swing dramatically....It will be baking hot, very oppressive, bone dry with the most amazing elevated heat storms.....Sadly I'm talking about the forecast on Venus for the next 4 billion years back here in Blighty, the 12z suites for the forseeable future can be summed up in one word... "Changeable"