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Everything posted by A.J
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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!
A.J replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
and for those watching in black and white, the green ball is next to the red.....I'll fetch me coat -
Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!
A.J replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
haven't posted in here for a long time, but my goodness there's some negative guff posted......how anyone can right off a summer (or the next couple of weeks) is either daft, naive or both.....First rule of FI Model Club, take the output post T192, put in toilet bowl and flush......verification percentages fall off the cliff post T192 so why stress?.......if it shows crappy and wet, expect the reality to be very different....I'd be more alarmed if FI was showing a heat fest as it gaurantee rain rain and yet more .....rain! Yup, a rather simplistic view of model watching but hey ho, hasn't let me down much -
Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards
A.J replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
thunder and lightning here.....nice! -
Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins
A.J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aye Mark, Penkridge was pants from what I've heard.....Still, even 09/10 wasn;t great when I lived there, cold but not especially snowy......I digress, sorry I'm taking this off topic mods, so I must dash, gin cocktails need to be shaken (not stirred) and I need to appropriate some maize based nibbles -
Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins
A.J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
generally agree with your post Matt, the expectations were raised though the roof due to model outputs shown throughout the winter period, they caught most on here out (and that's not a knock on anyone as one can only analyse the model output that is erm, output...lol).......Haven't seen the stats re. this winter....Thought the Scots had done well, happy to be corrected........it was dry and pretty banal during parts of Jan and Feb down here, but in the last few weeks the incessant wind and rain have certainly made up for it! the 80's certainly down south were not 2 a penny, some were horrifically mild and snowless -
Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins
A.J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I refer the honourable gentleman to answer I gave some moments ago.....shame it's been crap for you Karl (being the snow lover we all know) but crap for you doesn't mean crap for everyone....................that's my opinion, and now I'm off for some gin based cocktails -
Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins
A.J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
decent?.....a snowfall that would be considered of epic proportions by the vast majority of people living in this country (if asked the question, 'is 25-30cm decent or epic)!.......and it was not in a 'smallish location'...try most of southern england and a sizeable chunk of the west country....Scotland's had plenty of snow, as have parts of Wales and Ireland...It's generally been an average winter for many, some snow, some rain, some wind, cold days & mild days., pretty much the climatological norm......Outside this forum, people who have not been privvy to the model outputs faux pas this winter would probably deem the winter season thoroughly average, not crap, not good.....winters such as 2009/10 and late 2018 season have been exceptions and not the norm -
Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins
A.J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
need to qualify this.....what has been a 'fail' for some was the complete opposite for others........south of the M4, with nearly 30cm of snow in one sitting....no fail there! -
as Clark Gable once said 'Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn'....lol....sorry, just jesting......25cm not from an easterly, but from a nice channel runner/slider....lovely and just goes to show even darn sarf here you don't need a raging easterly to get the best snow events, and the modelling was pretty much on the ball for this from T48 out
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I hunted for cold.....and got 25cm of snow in one sitting....bloody awesome winter for me, bring on the CFS!
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Damn it!!!!.....I meant to post on the ICON!!!!......but the exclamation key on my keyboard is stuck!!!!!.....what can I do?!!!!!!!...has it north, south, east, or west?!!!!!!..... Sorry, I'll fetch me coat!!!!!
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but by how many miles!!!.....5!!!, 10!!! or 50!!!....Shaky needs to know!!!!!
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it's been said before that winter starts on the first snowfall and ends on the last snowfall....for me, winter was from 31st Jan to the 1st Feb....but what a stonking winter it was!.....An absolute belter!
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I managed to pick up my parcel deliveries this morning, but I've sacked off delivering them until tomorrow as the roads are like skating rinks, the side roads are terrible, and the less said about the pavements/paths, the better!.... What an event yesterday!....On friday afternoon I was a moaning minny who despaired of seeing even one snow flake, and then during friday night and all day yesterday, I saw a few billion of the buggers...lol......We maxed out at 25cm of snow on even surfaces, and with a solid freeze overnight there's been negligible thaw I just wanted to say how much I enjoyed reading this thread yesterday and a big thumbs up to all who contributed.....Loads of great posts, stories, piccies and a ton of good banter!....bring on the next event!
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
A.J replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
25cm of laying even snowfall here, easing off as this little meso-low drifts ESE....you guys could be in for some serious fun later!!