A.J

6/10 on the shaky exclamiometer .....not bad, definite potential there.....if you hit an 8 on the next post then I reckon cold and snow's a shoe in!

Don't forget to ignore the gfs run folks!..... it's a garbage model and shouldn't be peed on if it was on fire........allegedly...... lol...... in all seriousness the watch word IMHO is never disregard any model output regardless of the source.....welcome changes in the mid term on the gfs, long may they continue for us cold and snow lovers

yes, the parallel is modelled to take over from the current GFS then....but that's T2160, way out in FI, unlikely to verify, and if the ECM & UKMO don't smell the coffee and come aboard then it definitely won't happen ...

I hope it goes the 'facebook' way and those big guns start duking it out with sarcastic memes and obnoxious tweets, that'll get popcorn sales shifted....lol

Both myself and several others have posted in a similar vein to your post over the the past week or two, but such posts are generally forgotten/ignored by members who obsess over every run from every model and put 2+2 together and get 40 different answers and then reach for the prozac in a desperate attempt to recover their shattered sanity.....either that or mildy trolls ignore the above, cherry pick the mildest charts they can find to give them the excuse to flood this thread with reasons why there will be no cold, no snow, nothing but blow torch south westerlies....I just generally stick to a few posters who actually know what they're talking about...after all, as the model output threads often show, a little knowledge is very dangerous

it was absorbed into the omega block

Phrase: Model Fatigue Definition: When you're eating your christmas dinner and suddenly think "Hmm, classic Omega block there with signs of a cross-polar flow and huge undercut....If I don't finish my dinner by T30+ minutes it will be bitterly cold......I'll fetch me coat!

ever thought about a house swap Nick?.....I fancy a week in the SW of France, especially with an easterly feed setting up there and cold T850's knocking on the door.....I'd even throw in some pickled onion monster munch and a dairylea dunkable as a tempter? ho ho ho

blimey it's remarkable how short some memories have become in this thread from peeps I'd expect to have better memories.....It's absolutely pointless beating oneself over the head with the current model outputs....Remember last winter?.....cruddy chart after cruddy chart and then 'hang on, SSW effects are showing up in the model outputs, here's comes the cold and snowy weather!"......Until the outputs start to factor in the effects of any future warming event then you might as well print off any model output T144+, colour it in elf & father christmas designs and use it as festive bog roll, it'll have more use as that!

3.5c here, and having just walked back from the village shop, it definitely feels it!

Because I'd like to understand what he's saying, it's that simple.....no doubts there's some good knowledge there judging by the replies, but I find it a bit hard to decipher at times.............who's hero-worshipping? and thanks for the 'lad' bit, I haven't been called that for over 45 years...lol

Nope, didn't understand a word of that TI......try again.....actually scrub that, I'll go with "Seasonality's" translation

with respect......pardon?

hang on, it's not raining......is this sudden climate change???

....but it all depends what it's showing.....over the past week or two, we've gone through the whole model ensemble of 'crapness'.......yes, each model has had it's turn of being 'unflavour of the month'.....according to material posted in this thread, the GF,S, ECM, UKMO, ICON, et al are all utter failures at various stages and their designers should've been on the 'virtual pill' to stop these model monstrosities from ever have been conceived.....Ok, a little OTT but then again OTT is the bedrock of a good chunk of stuff posted here to be fair......A jolly good ramp is good from time to time as long as it's infused with a dose of realism.............I'm in a grumpy mood, so I'm going to open the gin bottle to lift my spirits (the runs for next week sadly don't inspire much confidence of the white stuff for my locale, I really need to move....lol)

absolutely..........and anything is preferable to this horrific wind and rain, rinse & repeat guff we're currently enduring...............hang on, let me look out of the window, and what a surprise it's blowing a hoolie and absolutely chucking it down

not really bud....it's basic physics to my eyes, if you look at the air pressure over central/NE europe, the slab of air in situ simply isn't dense enough to hold more energetic air spilling eastwards in place....and if you look at the core of the HP cell, it remains at about 1032Hpa, and doesn't really move that much from T168 to T216 as air at that pressure is dense enough to stay more or less in situ

You've missed out loads Las....about time you got with it, WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE!!

when is there ever any point in looking past T144?......possible trends?.......maybe, but it's a big maybe.........charts past this time frame rarely verify, but hey, it keeps this thread busy as the hunt for future cold continues it's inexorable winding path

yes, agreed on both counts......the ability to up or down vote annonymously would work.....there can;t be any directed accusations of trolling/bullying that way......still, a 'like' or 'thanks' is sufficient, no need to break something that seems to be working ok now!

I disagree with this, as it isn't as black or white as your post suggests.....there are too many people on here with ego's the size of galaxies who shout anyone down who dares challenge their viewpoint, so a 'sad' or 'laughing' emoji is a simple but effective way of showing disagreement without having to go through the 'joy' of compiling a well thought out argument onlyto be 'shouted down' or cyber-bullied......

weren't they taken away because someone complained about be 'trolled' by emoji?

what battle?.....no disrespect but Chris Fawkes is a professional forecaster, enough said

moderate snow here

Rain......yuk