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A.J

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Everything posted by A.J

  1. A.J
    parts of the south west look good for tomorrow...hard to pin a specific location, but east of Devon, near say Newton Poppleford looks good.......ever been there or have relatives there? edit....Nice forecast @MattTarrant.....ties in with current modelling
  2. A.J
    ties in pretty much with the forecasts Pete, i.e isolated storms that weakened during the period.....of course, one or two got lucky but the vast majority didn't....no organised storms whatsoever despite what you might have been led to believe reading some posts,,,,,what we're left with is just a band of patchy rain, heavy in places but nothing of any real note
  3. A.J
    righty o....I'm off to bed to dream of storms and have nightmares of Newton Poppleford.....nighty night
  4. A.J
    it's definitely worth looking at them and studying them...whereas convection is difficult to pin down on a specific location, model output will give you an opportunity to see the various airmass interactions at play and study parameters........There are many experienced posters on here who will gladly help newcomers to NW get a grasp of the fundimentals, and Mapantz's case, he's one of them....good luck, hope you catch your storm
  5. A.J
    politely and treading tactfully, Mapantz has a point, he is simply stating what is currently happening and what is modelled/forecasted dor the overnight period....mid-level instabilty is on the wane as lapse rates drop....there is a chance of a few rogue sferics during the night but nothing organised according to hi-res modelling.....nothing wrong with being hopeful, as long as hopeful isn't muddled with reality.........
  6. A.J
    I've just run the loop....and no, just 2 bog standard thunderstorms IMHO, one of which (the eastern one) is decaying if not already dead
  7. A.J
    some sensible posts would be great!........quite a few new members judging by the post counts and joining dates.....As an old NW fart & Convective thread veteran, I'd highly recommend looking in the learners area for thunderstorm forecasting as the likes of Nick Finnis, Thundery Wintry Showers & John Holmes to name but a few have contributed some excellent tutorials over the years....Also check Nick F's convective forecasts in conjuction with Dan's (Staplehurst on NW) and his colleagues forecasts over at convectiveweather.co.uk
  8. A.J
    yup.....might have been possibly 2 cloud farts, but they might well have been of my own making...lol.....both ARPEGE & WRF make little of tonights/tomorrow feature here and the NMM is laughably wrong already....still,, I live in hope!
  9. A.J
    yes they generally are....500hpa steering motion for elevated, 850/700hpa surface based
  10. A.J
    I wouldn't mind that....some interesting weather for a change....anything to change this cloudy monotonous nonsense my locale has experienced this past week
  11. A.J
    yup....cloudy cool & drizzly yet again....the worst 'summery' spell I've ever experienced....all the nice juicy stuff near london just fell apart to nothingness as it arrived........I actually long now for some atlantic weather, some interesting weather for a change
  12. A.J
    I did....lol
  13. A.J
    wait your turn...some of us are higher up in the queue
  14. A.J
    the stuff over the home counties and SE England looks to be weakening considerably on radar....still some embedded convection especially on the southern/SE flank......I'm not entirely sure what to expect here.....we've a total low cloud cover all day so no visibilty of what's incoming....feeling quite cool
  15. A.J
    apart from a brief shower at lunchtime, it's been dry here today......the anvil of that complex should be well in view now but alas 100% low level cloud cover is scuppering visibilty, no sun all day
  16. A.J
    just popped into this thread to see if I can find them, but no, not here......Has anyone seen the sun & a thunderstorm?....I've looked outside for days but can't find them and had a tip off that they were in here.....damn, they must be somewhere?!
  17. A.J
    18c with thick cloud cover.....yep, quality summer weather here...lol
  18. A.J
    yup, same here.....it's hard to believe that there's been so much active weather around southern england the past few days.....In fact I don't believe it, it's a goddamn conspiracy by members, trawling google for stock images of thunderstorms and posting them knowing full well the weather will be benign here......paranoid much?.....lol
  19. A.J
    Malcolm, re, wednesday ppn charts, is that inferring more along the lines of dynamic rainfal along that trough or convective?.....I haven't had a chance to look at any charts re. forcing, instability etc....cheers
  20. A.J
    arrrgh....stop copying the whole post and then just adding a one liner!.....see supacell's request earlier
  21. A.J
    still waiting.....lol
  22. A.J
    waiting for the low cloud to burn back....shouldn't be too long hopefully
  23. A.J
    hope so mate....I feel a bit storm starved compared with many over the past 24-48 hours
  24. A.J
    lovely photo showing towering Ac Cas
  25. A.J
    A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?
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