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A.J

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Everything posted by A.J

  1. A.J
    can you do me a favour and post MLcape & DLS charts for the same period please mate? I've had a look at the corresponding GFS charts and they're a bit underwhelming for anything organised....little shear to speak of on GFS which suggests storms falling apart quickly, with spotty elevated convection
  2. A.J
    amen to that
  3. A.J
    all depends what layer the inversion is in......my concern is that elevated imports decaying as they reach the south coast will scupper SB (surface based) storms over southern england tomorrow onwards...you can have all the energy in the world but without insolation there will be little or no convection...On the plus side though, there may be little mid-level leftover clag to inhibit SB convection..........................and if the timing is right (tomorrow night possibly) we could see some stonking elevated storms over some southern districts......The uncertainty makes it more exciting radar watching, that's for sure
  4. A.J
    sharp showers firing over east anglia, pretty much bang on as forecasted.......watching these develop with interest
  5. A.J
    Top analysis Knocker......forget the other model thread, this thread is rapidly turning into the 'go to' thread on NW
  6. A.J
    could I go for a 6 pack of stella instead....Stella aways brightens my day
  7. A.J
    whats happened to all this lovely weather forecasted?........torrential rain yesterday and cool, and it's a rinse and repeat today so far with the rain band pivoting further south than expected....and now the overnight models are throwing spanners in the works for the weekend and next week
  8. A.J
    I've just been looking at a 2 hour satellite animation for France & the UK.....It's no wonder we're not importing much per se.....steering flow over France is WSW with a swift storm motion whereas steering flow over Benelux to the UK is easterly....Storms developing over north/north east France are being ripped apart as soon as they drift into the easterly 'conveyor belt'....Some residual energy is carried over into the UK but not enough to sustain decaying convection, hence why some southern and eastern districts are experiencing bands of heavy rain with just the odd embedded convective element
  9. A.J
    you're not kidding Ben!......maybe we'll get lucky from these?....they seem to be tracking down the M4 corridor
  10. A.J
    looks like a couple of sharp showers have just fired over NW London
  11. A.J
    I always the political threads were the place for pointless point scoring....seems I was mistaken............. Modelling both hi-res and medium res infers a summery outlook with potential for both unusually high temperatures in favoured spots as well as the potential for both home-grown surface based and imported elevated thunderstorms especially for southern districts....The concern re. the latter is decaying storms can morph into rather more mundane dynamic rainfall....time will tell
  12. A.J
    some hefty showers tracking westwards along the M4 corridor....we've just had one
  13. A.J
    or looking at the latest strikes, I give you el Dunko
  14. A.J
    lol
  15. A.J
    if they're surface based relying on insolation then yes they would struggle, but overnight storms (if they do occur) will be elevated thus based on mid level instability which is there and increasing during the forecast period
  16. A.J
    I'm surprised to see a couple of pessamistic posts in here re. tonight (or is it reverse psychology?)...Dan & Nick wouldn't put out storm forecasts if they didn't think potential was there.......to me it's pretty standard stuff with WAA in the mid levels lifted over cooler lower air mass.....it's just coming from a different direction from the usual due south.........all to play for in my book
  17. A.J
    yes, saturday night looks full of promise, not to mention friday night for those more to the SW
  18. A.J
    nice convective forecast for the overnight period from Nick Finnis.....I'm hopeful and looking forward to an elevated storm in the early hours tomorrow
  19. A.J
    looking at the output, I'd rather plump for us southerners baking by day and looking Channelwards for elevated storms and multicell clusters and then hear next morning everyone north of Brum moaning because of the detritus and clagg left over from said imports whilst we bake again down south..with a hint of rinse and a dose of repeat ..you know it makes sense!
  20. A.J
    a few rumbles over the past hour from that broken line of pulse storms ploughing through North Wilts....clearing up now
  21. A.J
    A big crash of thunder here....made me jump
  22. A.J
    a few piccies showing development over the past 30 mins or so looking SE Looking South and a quite robust tower looking NE towards Swindon
  23. A.J
    TCu bubbling up nicely here now......strikes detected nr Reading.....storm/cells motion is SW
  24. A.J
    lol...it's all good....just teasing..................well done on breaking your cherry in the model thread, many don't!............yup, the overnights and 12z outputs are encouraging.....not blazing heat, but it'll feel nice.....heat and plumes will come later no doubt
  25. A.J
    Why did you have to quote Tamara's (excellent) long post eh but add nothing to it?.....I scrolled through with bated breath only to hear a ping on my phone with the dreaded notification from o2 to say that I've gone over my data allowance thanks to you, and my next bill will have far too many zero's....thanks a bunch .....I'll fetch me coat ...... nice model outputs so far today, a settled spell in the offing for many parts, with temps hovering around the 70F mark for my locale......lovely!
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