A.J

not me.....models show what the weather might do, not what it will do on a different note, ppn charts T48+ are about as much use as tits on fish......nice to look at but not worth much per se....I'll stick to the hi-res models sub T36/48 to save astronomical prozac bills...lol.......modelling does look very nice for my part of the world, but I will not, repeat, WILL NOT say anything to the wife and kids until white stuff starts falling out of the sky!

have you been on those Jamaican woodbines again Mark?.....'heat of the day'....lol

Let's all have a massive breakdown because one model run doesn't show a 'the day after tomorrow' weather pattern because many believe in the saying 'the weather is set in stone 'cos a model said so'.......good grief, have a word some of you.....if there's cross model consensus at T48 for no wintry nirvana then by all means crack open the prozac, tramadol etc etc but until then relax, don't hang on every nuance of every run!

Ice pellets here at 160m a/s/l on the edge of the marlborough downs....definitely not snow though, temps and dew points on the rise and I'm on the eastern/northern part of the region so I'll be very surprised if anyone sees any proper flakes of snow in our region tonight (except perhaps the tops of the cotswolds/marlborough downs)

All over the place, non-committal, prone to be wrong....and a bit of a tit..........fare enough

John, you've misinterpreted my post, see further post on thread where I reposted the exact quote from a met office source

don't get me wrong IC, amongst the throng of happy 'coldites' (wtf is a coldite...lol) I hope the gfs(p) is off the mark....and talking of which, what a remarkable set of overnight and morning runs!...stone me, there's plenty of snow opportunities in the offing!......The coldie in me says 'get in my son!' but it's tempered by the 'sobering' part of me says 'bugger, I'm a SE courier doing rural rounds, next week could be 'interesting' to say the least'........doh! just seen your second post....No worries!

not relevant to my post Feb......I was simply putting the record straight as explained to me (and others) by a met office source

Sorry IC, but this simply isn't true....The me office use a blend of many models including GFS & JMA....and this is straight from a well known met office source as posted in this thread before

FWIW, I hope the EC is on the money, and provides the wintry synoptics we crave for, but despite the GFS bashing that's been going on (which to a degree is merited in as much that its verification stats are not wonderful) I still remember 'That ECM'......when it's within T48 I'll believe it 100%, until such time, a watching brief is recommended

the GFS(P) ppn charts on NW has always been broken.....probably nothing to do with NW

My, my....they grow up so fast these days....seems just like yesterday that baby was feeding at the breast, and now up'n running.....just show how much can change in 24 hours...lol........looking at the GFS in interest, nice snow making trough sliding though T171-192 with the more traditional FI dart board low at T300+

reading quite a few posts infers that some members think that the likes of Chionomaniac, Lorenzo, Catacol, BB62/63 et al either don't exist, are on their 'blocked members' list or simply think that they know much better than said posters...(they don't).....These guys are seasoned and learned model watchers, they are not mega-cold rampers and say it how it is and give sound and in depth analysis on background drivers and how the outputs are more likely to pan out....go and have a look at their very recent posting history in this thread, the strat thread and others.....and then come back and say 'the outlook is poor'....'winter is over' etc etc!! good grief!

I'm not happy with that image......the shading is so passe, terrible use of colour and definitely won't match my wall paper and curtains.....lol but gibberish aside, a remarkable image and just goes to show what potential is there.......Can you smell what the GFS(p) is cooking?!

not entirely true to be fair......thickness values (the amount of atmosphere between two pressure boundaries) and especially dew points/WBFL are major parameters....in theory you can snowfall with T850's on or just below 0C with low DAM values and dew points/Wet Bulb temps of 0C..... edit, Ben and Steve make similar points

regardless of the current output, and despite how volatile the current output seems to be, ANY post that contains the phrase 'Like father xmas on acid' get's a like and thumbs up from me (and I aint pleased easily).....absolute gem of a post TI ...LOL.....!!

nice ecm so far with possible snow at T192-216 (just to keep it on topic)

Fred.....with the current volatility do you think that model outputs could flip quickly giving a pattern more conducive to an easterly?....I understand that sudden stratospheric warming can have a myriad of effects, and not necessarily in our locales favour, but IIRC (and the memory is hazy) this time last year outputs weren't looking especially good initially, then they started to go 'haywire' with some outrageously bad and good solutions before settling on what became a memorable snow and cold spell

no, no, it was all me....really.....I did a phd in meteorology on the side when I did my school work experience and YTS at bracknell......they paid me an extortionate amount of money (£1.20 hour IIRC) and I repay them by providing them with all the latest & future tech weather forecasting........damn, I'm good

just quoting the source Steve.......me?....I haven't got a scooby what it all means, most of my model watching these days is in playboy magazine

for the sake of clarity on this point of order, the following is a 'hot off the press' quote from a met-office source...I won't divulge the identity of the source without permission "No, UKMO absolutely don't ignore GFS. While primarily modifying (if needed) the operational UKMO-GM usually based on ECMWF comparison, GFS is always examined and assessed for further useful benchmarking, as for that matter are e.g. models from MeteoFrance, DWD-ICON, Canadian GEM and Japanese JMA. It not at all the case that Ops Centre ignore GFS (why!?) and whilst the model has various known bias frailties and idiosyncrasies/oddities, it has nonetheless served well as a global model (despite a general statistical underperformance versus ECMWF and UKMO-GM). It is especially useful for benchmarking at lead times <T+132, as well as for broadscale or hemispheric pattern matching (e.g. to ECMWF) at longer leads. It'll be interesting to see how its successor fares, once introduced operationally."

lol

for god sake, how about some people actually discussing the model outputs rather than all the bum-licking/sniping/arguing that goes on in here...For so called 'grown up adults' posting in here, there are some disturbingly good impressions of 5 year olds

*broken record alert time*.......fair to say, the model output suites are volatile to say the least as the SSW variables are added to the complex algorithms.....just my own preference but I'd drop FI down to T96/120 until the various suites show consistency......the caveat being most of outputs are showing signs of a vague future pattern but much to be resolved in the interim....As mentioned earlier by a a member a blend of the outputs is the best way forwards at this time....fascinating times