swfc

January 7

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Who else is excited for the 18z..

Cant wait tbh. Suspect it will be similar to the 12z gfs/ec. Who knows tho could be epic

January 7

Im awaiting nws det on the 12z ec? Isn't that same as the op? Things look ok cold wise ie 850s but nhp wise id hang fire, dry powder folks

January 7

1 minute ago, swfc said:

It's one run boss, relax

Crazy on here. Things look ok but chill out

January 7

10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm 144!.

It's one run boss, relax

January 7

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

I really would not be calling these poor at all….. it’s normal fluctuation within a chaotic developing pattern with lots of support for a period of cold weather, if your hoping for 1963 then I’d call it poor!

The daddy of all the means is the 500s that John Holmes posts and these are as good as it gets really!

I struggle to see how anyone on this forum can be remotely negative currently on what’s showing on the models off the back of fantastic background signals…

They cant scott in all honesty given previous winters. Plus its early January caveats date wise

January 7

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

No ne.

Thought you put low pressure

January 7

39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Talk about an emotional rollercoaster for coldies .

So far so good this evening even though the GFS wanted to take a Mystery Tour !

The ECM out soon and I can sense the trepidation rising !

We did see an improved 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs from it earlier so let’s hope that’s a sign it’s turned a corner !

We live in hope !

Be carnage nicksuspect things will level of over the next 48/72 hours

January 7

Just now, lassie23 said:

better run a marathon then

Or two

January 7

Gone from deflation to elation on a set of 12z runs. "Gfs op is cannon fodder, ecmw struggling, gem is the dogs and the 144hr ukmo is stunning"All this again in a frantic set of posts even tho the tho sensible thing would be to" ignore all ops and stick with the control and means". Come on chaps the outlook is still good without all the chuckle brother antics

January 7

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

As boring as this sounds, it is always best to just watch the radar if there is a signal for convection which there definitely is.

Regional thread will also be more helpful ie info

January 6

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it just me not worried about this evenings ecm 12z?!!i dunno why but it aint bothering me lol!!!normally it would ruin my evening and all sorts but i reallly am not too disheartened!!!on to the 00zs....!!!

In all honesty its pointless getting wound up over. The nhp is looking better than it has for many a year esp being January. There is extreme cold to the north and east. If your going to analise every single run on all the models then your in trouble. Sometimes less is more esp if your awaiting ice flows and polar bears marching south on the m1. Relax

January 5

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Or just rolling with it and enjoying models / drama and a nice healthy distraction to pass a little time during the winter months..

better than bloomin east Enders or some other warmth tv

Yep its not worth worrying about really given lifes woes

January 4

1 minute ago, LRD said:

It's a mid-range model - the signals will always get weaker the further out it goes

You're welcome

January 4

7 minutes ago, LRD said:

Eh? The ops, means and controls don't have large variants. All of them have been showing a basic broad pattern of a cool/cold UK high then retrogression to our NW for days now. The detail changes as you'd expect but the big picture hasn't. And, besides, if the output was being inconsistent then looking for guidance in other suites is surely valid?

As it is the EC46 has been rock solid for days on what it is showing this evening. It's consistency has been remarkable. Might be consistently wrong but it's a model and this is the model output thread

Thanks

January 4

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm posting a chart I didn't say bet your life on it

January 4

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 week 2 ..

You literally couldn't paint a more beautiful picture..

Its in fi. You wete sticking with ukmo a few days at 144hrs.gfs was rubbish and ec was average on winter stats +???

January 4

A lot or most charts are available on here and metiociel etc. Im not sure posting 8 week charts and ec 46 helps much when the ops, means and control charts hsve large variants. Imo 144 hours possibly in this set up is enough although the strat at 10pha has been accurate within its parameters.

January 4

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 is just Northern Blocking basically , for 3 to4 weeks..

Incredible.

Hmm hopefully

January 4

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think I saw underwhelmed, disappointing when describing EC det..

Wow the bar must be like stratospheric in some homes !!!

I agree mate. The problem is after many years generally the output post 10 days mixes out. Its like going fishing with all the expensive tackle and equipment. You sit there for hours then some kid walks past with just a rod and lands the big fish.im optimistic but wary pal

Y.

January 4

3 minutes ago, Niall K said:

I don’t mean to dampen the mood but the epic charts being shown are well beyond the reliable. Cross model agreement and buy in from Exeter is noteworthy but severity and longevity of any cold spell can be watered down over the next 10 days or so. Here’s hoping it isnt but no harm maybe just tempering those expectations for a few more days if possible until we get into the semi-reliable!!!!

Good points. Id be of the opinion that it will turn a good deal colder ie frost, fog"because of the saturation rain wise"but the orientation and positions of heighths is paramount. All to play for given the pv displacement, heights and fi air flow direction and 850s. Theres still the matter of shortwaves but if the heighths get well into Greenland then the next bout of strat work could keep things ticking over

January 4

Even with great synoptics the 500hpa are way to high even with projected 850s. Looks very dry and there's not much instability in the atmosphere. All that said the bricks are being laid on the rd

January 4

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but I prefer GFS at 168 the High is a bit further North...

It is nws. Id be going anywhere between another 72 hours before lighting any fuse

January 4

1 minute ago, GSP said:

Waiting for a weather VR package to be created. We could have charts then experience the weather with no breakdowns, hiccups, spoilers.
We get what we ordered!

There 10 day charts. Relax,

January 4

Things looking great for at least some colder, drier weather with blocking. Keep that powder dry and wait to be reining in any epic outlook.

January 3

Cometh hour cometh the man. Scott and his 15th Not a bad day on the models esp gfs 12z

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