[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Ec 12z at 168 hrs shows pv disruption to a degree and wedgy type heighths svalbard and further north. Incremental but there  seems to be picking up the signal nh wise

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

British winters 21st Century: 7 weeks of zonality wind and rain, 5 weeks of Bartlett anticyclonic gloom and one week of frost and snow to remind you of what could have been  

Your correct there tbh. The cold is there but the insipid heighths to our south generally scupper it 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Wet but maybe mild into the New Year. I can't view my normal data as I'm currently in hospital with Covid my symptoms are potentially life threatening,  I'm just comfortable at the moment and having oxygen I'm struggling to breathe. 

I keep looking at the charts occasionally,  I've heard chat of a cold mid January fingers crossed  

Speedy recovery and best wishes

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12z continues its fi playing with heights in various forms and positions. Good to see but best keep that powder dry imo. Strat at 10pha still looking strong etc. See what the next 7 days bring on the output

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Blessings to everyone. Good times ahead next year for everyone and hopefully some great weather, whatever your preference

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Merry Christmas .. one n, All. And the output should soon start strong assumptions on the upper layers .. have a good en.    

All the best pal. Nice to see you back

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 hours ago, swfc said:

Look way nne ie pressure rise and heighths rising in the Atlantic. Ive screenshot the 7th, ive got a feeling thats the timeframe for change, hopefully

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This gfs doesn’t split at 10 hpa but it does just  about reverse 

It does split below 20 hpa 

it looks closer to the eps mean than previous runs 

Hi. Is the 20hpa visible on metiociel Ba. Tia

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Might be a tad chilly as the energy out west slides south east over us and unlocks real cold to our north east.. jet looks ok to do do..

let’s see…..

 

 

Look way nne ie pressure rise and heighths rising in the Atlantic. Ive screenshot the 7th, ive got a feeling thats the timeframe for change, hopefully

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

If you look north east of svalbard on the gfs 18z on the nhp then switch to the 10hpa strat its pretty impressive

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Slightly better gfs 18z at 144/150 hr mark. Pressure to the ssw not as strong and lower heights to the south. Al caveats but its there

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

11 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Roll it on a day and look at this. Wow. 
Sadly it’s just one member that’s 372 hours away so it’s just a dream. But I love looking at charts like this 

 

Similar looking chart in January 87.max temp - 6 in a moderate easterly and heavy snow

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I have no idea what this means 

Sounds like fire water language

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dan has just posted some positive news elsewhere  about our favourite Swedish weather/ rock band mountain tongue.

I'm sure he'll be along to share it here soon..

 

Mountain tongue

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

So another xmas approaches and new year. For some its not been the best year for various reasons. Enjoy your time with family and friends and have a great xmas. Hopefully the new year also brings some great output and Northwestsnows wedges =sledges phrase comes to fruition.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

A very different 6z by day 8 with higher pressure over Scandinavia. 

Sorry i cant see it? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Great Post @Mucka

All about EC 46 this evening for me ..

Fingers crossed  

Again mate. How can it be so different in 24 hrs. If so where is the credibility

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Im struggling with the ec 46 comments and the ecm isnt without interest. Its the same thing every time a couple of good ops show a good nhp. If the professional forecasts arnt on board dont go hyper on any run. Best just sit back and watch it play out. Showing ec 46 charts for mid/late january and saying bingo is irrelivent. The same posters say anthing over 144 hrs is fi. Then its the "background" signals are positive. Im pretty sure over the next three months there will be a cold spell but stop talking things up what arnt in the reliable time frames

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46

Early Jan

Good chart but it's a perennial let down 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is still way to much Shannon entropy over Xmas but this morning I can't help but feel it's slipping away now.

Like you I'm more concerned about the longer term now.

I do hope something hasn't gone wrong with the background drivers ,surely the wintry potential suggested late Dec early Jsn wasn't predicated on the MJO ...

Did shannon ever work behind bar in travelers arms Sheffield Relax folks its only 18th December

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

18z gfs be it fi is a pretty good nhp. Pv moves east and  none to shabby heighths up the the north Atlantic 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I will take no less!

Can just envisage the polar bears heading south on the m1

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Halfway through a run ….how dare they
It’s back up and running
 

edit …it’s off agin

Yep. No change for meter

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Metiociel not loading gfs? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

On the naughty step for 2 days at least & that's not to do with the output

Possibly the best chart of the winter so far,