[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec day 8

This mornings run

 

Yep both poor

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Really not getting the excitement looking at the run up to Xmas. Thought all that fi was on the back burner, christ

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Gfs 6z has or does not clear the remnants of the pv, ie esb canada as shown on the oz. Ramifications are evident

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

pretty good agreement on the models this morning out to day ten.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Rarely seen a flake of snow from a straight northerly here, not complaining though at crystal blue skies and clean air should it come off! 

Tbh its not a major event is it mate. Depends on how low you set the bar. Im not into cold frosty weather im a snow man. Some like a dickension xmas but its just wasted gas on heating to me. That said each to there own. Imo it will be January if there any substantial changes on the nhp ie blocking to the nne

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I think it’s becoming more likely for a blast from the north. 

Possibly but after the last 2 days of sadness and despondency it give it while maybe midweek. Sometimes least said soonest mendedI to be honest a sharp quick northerly isnt that rare in December 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

23 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Oh no, here we go again, just when we thought it was all over! The 4x daily GFS rollercoaster

Thanks some sanity

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Latest monthly forecast suggest increasing chance of widespread snow in Jan. Models suggesting changes in Jan? Am liking it

HIi ,where exactly tia

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:

Maybe 

Is that at 10pha

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1 minute ago, Winter2009 said:

You missed the key word “could” turn colder 

The post was will be

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Gizzy said:

Country file update - signs that we will be turning colder in the run up to Christmas.

Sorry not model related but then again is related in terms of longer term pattern.

Country file mentioned that

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Yup, I was trying to give  a heads up for the GFS 12z modelling a Christmas freeze as soon as I saw how it was handling the Euro trough.

Guess some people took it the wrong way 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Where’s Northwestsnow, he’ll surely be back

Having a lay down after glosea update

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

We will see a further zillion versions of this before xmas, never take them seriously 

I think mucka is being somewhat light hearted

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

We will see a further zillion versions of this before xmas, never take them seriously 

I think mucka is being somewhat light hearted

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just as a side note the gfs 12z is slightly better

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Tbh id give it a week or so. Glosea updates obv fluctuate and hyperventilating isnt going to change that. Dry for a starter going forward 

[Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24]

Hi. Can someone post the latest snow cover over Europe. Tia

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Sorry mods off topic. It may be a bit early but while its quiet id like to do a quick post. During the year and esp at xmas i work with a local charity in Sheffield. They basically help homeless people "with various issues" in regard to food and clothing etc. Obviously in winter the need becomes greater in regard to clothing and warmth. If you could in your local area just spend a bit of time during the run up to xmas gathering any unwanted clothing. Food packages also if possible. Thankyou for your time

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Good points. The tripole as you say is evident but the mid atlantic could do with a drop in temps. The mixing up from the hurricane season as vanished. The atlantic ridge imo isnt atm going to make much headway towards greendland. Stronger chance as the pv moves towards siberia and the far north of europe. Zonal winds are under pressure without a full on ssw and the 10hpa strat is looking pretty good in that respect. The period until 2024 looks with all caveats hopefully a lot drier ans seasonable. Maybe an outside chance for those who havnt been naughty seeing some wintry precipitation

Sorry above post was for Derecho

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Good points. The tripole as you say is evident but the mid atlantic could do with a drop in temps. The mixing up from the hurricane season as vanished. The atlantic ridge imo isnt atm going to make much headway towards greendland. Stronger chance as the pv moves towards siberia and the far north of europe. Zonal winds are under pressure without a full on ssw and the 10hpa strat is looking pretty good in that respect. The period until 2024 looks with all caveats hopefully a lot drier ans seasonable. Maybe an outside chance for those who havnt been naughty seeing some wintry precipitation

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2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

I have to agree with LRD on this - He's always hyping up an ice age like the people at the daily mail

Just a point, bftp os long time respected poster on here.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

So quite clear from this thread that the models do not show high pressure over and to the South of the UK in the next 2 weeks.

Id say yes high pressure over the uk looks fav kasim. Not sure about the southern movement but nothing unusual or wintry imo

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

36 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 

Well, that's the point no models are showing a push of heights into Greenland which was the hope given background drivers looked favourable, at least on some output  Yes, it will be dry, but some of us were hoping for a bit  more for the Christmas period but the chances of that  happening are fading  based on current output. Perhaps there is still time for it to change for the better, but we don't really see broad support for a proper cold spell in the extended outlook. Perhaps a northern  toppler might deliver to some areas during Christmas week. Let's hope so anyway.

Yes but the background signals don't have a specific influence on any specific date? If there was a SSW taking place then maybe the lag time after "could" indicate via the nhp or models a chance of northern blocking. As always the uk being in its location always walks a thin line. As catacol said it may or may not happen inclusive of background signals. I mentioned the wheels not coming of becsuse the output never had them on

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

The wheels are coming off the Greenland  express it seems. A northern toppler at best looks the most likely outcome now. Will we even get a decent cold spell  to  see out the year?

The background drivers not playing ball it seems. Did someone mention a SSW in January...?  On to the next chase!

Evening. Not sure about the wheels coming off its the 9th of December? I've not seen any runs this week that showed a strong push of heighths high up into Greenland. High over the uk and way out in fi atlantic ridge. A dry spell will be most welcome by a lot of folk.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

But in the context of a flat EC it's not a trend we'd want to see ...

Indeed. If you also look to the far nne the arctic high and residual heights are not evident on the gfs 6z