Typhoon John

I've changed my mind now, I don't think anything notable is going to happen at all here. Let's hope something develops for the end of the week.

The area to the west seems to be winding down... I wouldn't be surprised to see an intensification towards the east now. Snowing moderately here now.

I don't think it's looking good. We need some heavy snow to set in to pin the temperature down otherwise I fear the temperature will rise too much before it really starts.

Persistent snow seems to be approaching Durham now, hopefully it will stay as snow. Had a quick measure and we have 5cm/2 inches on the flat and found a drift of about 8cm/3 inches.

There seems to be another more intense shower approaching according to the NW radar. Touch and go as to whether the most intense part goes to the North. Maybe this one has PP's name on it.

Snowing again here, I haven't been out to measure but I'd guess at about 2cm. It seems a lot of showers have just clipped us as they're passed to the south.

Got a cover here, heavy shower of grauple I think. Possibly just heard a rumble of thunder. Another shower about to hit according to net weather radar.

It seems to have calmed slightly, but it's all quite exciting. I hope it's not dark when/if it blows.

I'll go for 2.8. Probably a bit optimistic though.

Can we assume that these measurements are accurate and will not be subject to revision?

Cosmic rays from 01/01/2000 to yesterday. I'm not sure if we can link the increase in Cosmic Rays to more frequent or stronger Stratospheric Warmings.

That's exactly what I think might happen, and I don't think the models will pick up on the correct pattern until the last minute.

Looking at the current conditions I think there's a chance the warming could propagate down fairly quickly and start impacting the troposphere earlier than usually expected. If it occurs it will be interesting to see how quickly the models pick up on the changes.

Just come back to Durham from Stanhope, through Frosterley, Wolsingham and Crook. Some nice snow falling to Frosterley but wetter by Wolsingham. Very wet after Crook and non-existant back here in Durham, the shower seems to have died. Unfortunately I wasn't driving otherwise we would have taken this route. Edit: Spelt Frosterley wrong two different ways!

It looks like there have been some fun and games at Chiaten today. http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/01/19/...ent-at-chaiten/ Only a matter of time?

It's probably solar cycle 23, the fact that they're still appearing indicates to me that this extended minimum is far from over.

I think the point is being missed here. I don't really care if the arctic is the most ice free it has ever been (I suspect there's less than 1906 but that there's been less than now at some point). Surely what's more important is whether the ice can grow again to the highest levels ever recorded. IMO they almost certainly will.

Of course the 2009 figures are provisional and the 1997 figures are final. Recently we have seen consistent downward corrections to the cold temperatures. Assuming the latest cold spell follows that pattern then imo 2009 should end up with a colder first week than 1997.

I think that's a much more sensible prediction but still probably at the top end of what is likely. It needs an increase of sunspots from now to be accurate and as we know the sun is currently flatlining. The longer there are no spots the lower the eventual sunspot maximum will be IMO. And in reference to my previous post, I said that the December sunspot number was 1.5 when in reality it was only 0.8.

They did forecast a below average December although their forecast didn't give me the impression it would be as cold as it was. However our National Meteorological Office falling for AGW hook, line and sinker is what I find distasteful... imo it's doing me a disservice.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the sunspot number drop back down again. December is 1.5 I think and Jan could be similar so the longer this continues the further out the minimum will be because the earlier figures are quite high compared to now. On that basis I think the minimum could be November 08 or perhaps into early 2009.The link below shows the spotless days this minimum in context with the cycles 10 to 23. It seems clear that this minimum is following a pattern observed during cycles 10-15. On that basis a minimum around now seems like a decent bet. http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html

This is today's/yesterday's:

After the spasm last night activity has dropped back to what appears to be normal levels. It looks like the end of the swarm for now; it'll be interesting to see if it comes back in the next few days, weeks, months, years....

There's been a rash of quakes in the last few hours with 3 having a magnitude greater than 3 in addition to the 2 earlier today. The tremor seems to have intensified as well.

The latest activity here does seem to be more unusual than what is expect from earthquake swarms experienced in the past. A quick look at the recent quakes in the area of the lake shows they are located at depths from around 6.5km to the surface suggesting rock breaking throughout. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent...15.-105_eqs.php The recent activity on the seismic traces near the lake seems to show some sort of background tremor. AFAIK this would suggest the movement of magma near to, but not necessarily towards, the surface. The seismic traces located further from the lake don't show this behaviour; here's the trace for Old Faithful which I think is about 30 miles from the earthquakes. I'm no expert but on the basis of that evidence it would suggest rocks breaking allowing magma to rise to the surface; presumably some sort of eruption would be expected if this were to continue, but I think that's a big if.