Typhoon John

Osmposm, I take your point about alot of the claims not coming from scientists, perhaps in hindsight I shouldn't have mentioned them. However, you can take that comment out and the rest still stands. I think an increase in extent from last year is a positive sign and a relevant comparison. The volume of ice over all is down but to me (and tell me why I'm wrong if I am) a greater extent of ice should allow for a quicker recovery? Then if next year we can see a melt less than this winter's gains then surely we will be no worse off than the current minimum.

I agree that long term that we should be comparing to an average. At the moment we've just passed minimum and after all we've heard this year about ice extent going to be lower than 2007 and the ice free pole I think a comparison to last year is relevant. 9% higher is very good news for now and makes you wonder how/why these scientists were making such wild predictions. Overall we are still in a poor situation regarding ice extent, but if 2009 sees an increase over 2008 then that can only be seen as a good thing. I think it's crazy to think we could suddenly jump back to average in one year.

We are still in deep minimum. These spots are hardly worth recording since they are so small. We probably haven't even reach the absolute minimum yet. The length of this minimum and the slow start to solar cycle 24 may not be unusual but it is when compared to recent solar cycles. It will be an interesting few years as a cycle like this has never been recorded with all the data we collect now. It gives us the opportunity to see what is happening to the sun and record any effects it has on the earth, if any. Personally, I'm not a big fan of the AGW theory but I would stop short of saying there are no human affects on the global climate. Overall though I think natural influences are far greater with solar variance being one of those factors. I wouldn't be surprised to see the global cooling of the last few years continue and become a trend if cycle 24 is small. There has certainly been no warming of the globe in the last decade.

I'd say it is but whether it's a worst case scenario or a near miss I think it's hard to say for certain. My thoughts would be that it's pretty much as predicted so far.

The worst surge should be happening from now, surely too early to call whether it's been better than predicted.

Has anyone seen any magic mushrooms yet this year? I might go for a walk tomorrow to see if I can find any.

I forgot to mention the wind, there'll be a bit of that about too. B)

I think Hanna is forecast to reach our shores by about mid-week. Obviously it won't be tropical but it could still have some tropical features to it and probably lots of rain.

Not definite at all. I would say mainland Scotland has decreased. The only place that has definitely increased is the Outer Hebrides. Wales is more ambiguous, to the North the Eastern half of Wales shows a decrease but in the South the chosen scales mean it's impossible to know. That is my view of those maps. Where are the figures for this decade? I'm not saying you are wrong about more recent years (there certainly has been some higher temperatures) but it's hard to assess without some data.

The difference is difficult to measure because the scales on those two maps are different. I'd argue that there has been no increase at all. Edit: In fact, if anything, it shows thunder has decreased.

Are you sure? I cannot believe that until 40 years ago there was never thunder or downpours outside of July and August. It seems to me the general weather patterns this year are more like those of 40+ years ago rather than the recent past. I think the fact that we see more devastation today is due to a number of factors: 1. Larger cities and towns with more water draining into rivers. 2. Development on flood plains where for some reason people expect to be protected (well it is a FLOOD plain). 3. More news coverage of flooding when it occurs making it seem more severe and exceptional than it really is.

Is there not a chance that this storm has the potential to turn into one of those often talked about East Coast hurricanes that could bring a huge storm surge and high winds to NYC? The storm could intensify further South over warmer water to be major hurricane. The ridge will keep it towards the East Coast and it could rapidly accelerate towards NYC which would help it keep strength before landfall. A landfall a little South of the Hudson River mouth would surely send a huge storm surge towards Manhattan and flatten the coast of Long Island. Would probably be the worst case scenario for any US landfall hurricane. I think that's the theory but I'm not really sure whether the current conditions would allow such a hurricane to develop.

Chaiten has been erupting with very low amounts of SO2 so it's contribution to any climate affects is likely to be negligible. I'm not sure about any VEI rating.

I hadn't noticed any until today when one leapt up in front of the lawn mower. But that was it, only one. I don't particularly like the creatures, they're annoying when they get inside and aimlessly fly around the house.

We're up to 25 days without a sunspot and over 100 days without a cycle 24 sunspot I believe. Currently there's no indication that activity will pick up in the short term.

The BBC weather forecast I saw had us getting very heavy rain here in Durham for most of tomorrow with less heavy but still persistent rain lasting into Thursday. It could get interesting but I think the exact position of the rain could well shift.

http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/...-vdap-briefing/ This post at the Volcanism Blog contains some new info regarding the rapid growth of the lava dome at Chiaten. It also confirms what I thought about SO2 levels being very low for the type of volcano. I guess anyone looking for cooling can forget about Chiaten providing.

It is indeed very exciting. If I'm honest I'm hoping for a big explosive eruption somewhere, I think we're long overdue! Hopefully it'll be an Alaskan volcano away from civilisation and the USGS will have loads of sensors and some HD cameras pointing at it we'll have an amazing insight into violent eruptions. Also, if the link between solar activity and volcanic activity wasn't strong before it's looking even more solid now. It's been a remarkable few of months.

I remember Feb 91 so well even though I was only 5. We were flying back into Newcastle on either the Friday or Saturday night, my parents probably know which. We circled Newcastle for at least an hour before diverting to Manchester because they couldn't clear the snow from the runway at Newcastle. I remember looking out the window with big lights on the plane lighting up the snow and cloud all around us. The snow wasn't too bad at Manchester but got progressively worse the further East we came. Instead of going back to Newcastle we got off the coach at the Carville exit of the A1. It was after midnight at this point and I remember walking through very deep snow and bitter cold with my mum guiding me and pulling suitcases! If you think that sounds detailed for a 5 year old my parents did fill me in on a couple of details. One thing they said was when we got home our central heating had broken and the house was freezing after being empty for a week! The next day I remember snow drifts up to the kitchen window at the back of the house and making an amazing snowman. I think we probably have pictures somewhere.

It's not really that big though as far as volcanoes go. The eruption plume from Pinatubo reached at least three times higher, that's what caused the climatic shift. Anyone looking for cooling from any of these volcanoes should be hoping for at least one of these volcanoes to decide to go for the big one.

It all depends on the size, but I think most VEI-8 eruptions would put us in serious trouble. The effects would be fairly immediate, the amount of material pumped into the atmosphere would block out the sun. Dramatic cooling would follow and I expect there would be global famine and collapse of the global economy. I think a large percentage of humans would be wiped out, not so much by the event itself but by famine and the subsequent wars. For example, after the eruption of Toba 75,000 years ago (2,800 cubic km) there was 1,000 years of cooler temperatures and 60% of the world population was killed. Today, with a much bigger population and the current strains on resources I think a similar eruption would be absolutely catastrophic. Thankfully Toba is on the large size, the next eruption may not be so big. Or it could be bigger, the eruption of La Garita Caldera in Colorado about 27.8 million years ago is thought to have ejected about 5,000 cubic km of material. Edit: As a comparison, the eruption of Mt. St. Helens was only 1.2 cubic km in volume.

IMO even with all this activity it is still no where near equivalent to a major eruption capable of cooling the earth. You're going to have to hope one of these volcanoes properly explodes. Also, I can't remember where it was, but I'm sure I read that it was thought that Chaiten actually had low SO2 output. Although I guess that we can't really be sure unless measurements are taken during this current eruption phase. Hopefully it'll be possible to have a look inside the caldera sometime soon and see what's happened to the lava dome.

Sunset today is at 5:53pm local time so I guess it might just be getting dark. No idea what the flash is, the webcams are showing more light again now anyway.

Interesting developments indeed, I wasn't expecting any action just yet but it's an indication of what's to come. Reports say the eruption has subsided again so maybe not the big one just yet but it could well come soon; as I mentioned in my last post, the signs are all there. It will be interesting once the weather clears to see exactly what has happened in the caldera.

I'm very interested in Chaiten, it looks like there's a reasonable chance of a large explosive eruption. Visible activity has dropped dramatically but seismic activity has increased in line with what would be expected from a blocked volcano with a filling magma chamber. I imagine the scientists are frantically trying to calculate how much space there is down there.