Typhoon John

I'm looking forward to this rain, I'm always up for extreme weather events. I notice the models still keep the heaviest rain in the North Sea as it moves through the North East although it's obviously still going to be very wet. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it back a little bit further West and hit us head on. Even so I think the flooding risk in my area will still be minimal.

Indeed, I thought I could walk home from Durham before it hit, big mistake! Maybe it's because everything I was wearing is now wet but I would have said the rain was definitely torrential at times.

17.4 please

What would you say is the optimal setup for storms here in the NE? The only thunder I've heard here in Durham in recent years has been from thunder snow.

Well it's still sleepy really. This months activity will be comparable to November 2008 however November had bigger more prolonged spots so it could be argued that activity was more vigorous then. Either way the minimum should soon be confirmed at around the turn of the year as counting all these specks will push the smoothed SSN up. Now the next question will be is the SSN going to increase but the size and contrast of the spots going to decline? At the moment it looks like yes but there is a long way to go; L&P still on track.

You can see the Durham affect in action this afternoon on the net weather radar. The heavy downpours are forming to the West, splitting and moving North or South around Durham as they gradually head East.

Putting aside the doubts over the validity of the article, it says the odds are 1 in 100 million. Presumably that would be over the course of a lifetime. But considering the billions of people on the planet and only one other case of a human being hit, surely basic maths would say the odds are much longer?

It's my personal preference to experience a deep minimum and I think we are heading that way but it'll be a long process. I do understand the consequences it would have for the World but I still would like to experience it, in the same way that I enjoy seeing floods and hurricanes and volcanic eruptions even though they cause death and suffering.

Some nice views on the Chaiten webcam this morning with this shot my favourite: A more vigorous plume this morning coming from the western side of the dome complex with clearly more ash content than in recent weeks.

Activity at Chaiten is gathering pace, a 4.4 and a 4.6 earthquake in the last week, a small explosion today and a much bigger plume than in recent days. Seems like a definite increase in activity if that was even possible. Is it just a sign of faster dome growth or could it be the start of a more explosive phase? It's such a shame we can't see the detailed data like we can for Redoubt in real time.

Has anyone seen any noctilucent clouds? I was hoping there might have been on show with the recent run of clear nights but I haven't seen any myself.

I was looking at some of the fantastic photos of Chaiten here: http://www.inglaner.com/volcan_chaiten.htm July last year. And a more recent shot from around March 09 I'm guessing. Edit: It's January 09, so loads more growth since then. But just look at that growth! It's truly stunning; that caldera is 2.5km wide. It makes Redoubt look like Old Faithful in a bad mood. And who's to say we've had the main event yet? If some volatiles start being mixed with that magma, who knows?

14.5 please

My own opinion is that a normal cycle, as in average compared to recent cycles, is impossible now. I think a Dalton style minimum is likely but not a Maunder - Maunder is probably too extreme.

From the sunspots and plage you would hardly know it's started. The region near the equator is SC23 and the sunspot is tiny with poor contrast suggesting a weak cycle to come. The only real indicator of the upswing in SC24 is the 10.7cm Flux which is increasing nicely.

Is there any information with regards to the size of that dome? I always find it difficult to judge from the pictures.

Still well on course to beat last years spotless days total, at the current rate 2009 should exceed 300 spotless days. Although we should perhaps expect a reduction in the frequency of spotless days as the year progresses.

This image:

All that excitement and another plage! Livingston and Penn in affect?

There's a suggestion that there is a link between low solar activity and increased volcanic activity, and while there does seem to be a loose correlation I am yet to be fully convinced.

A much more realistic prediction from the SWPC but it's still about 20 too high imo. I'd go for a SSN of 70 for the next max around the middle of 2014.

And the WHO just has. I think it's unnecessarily worrying the public; I can see the need to take it seriously but the reaction also needs to be appropriate.

11.2C Not being scientific at all.

Those figures don't look adjusted. The flux varies throughout the year because of the distance between the sun and the earth. You need to use the adjusted figures to cut out these variations and see the real trend. The figures for the year so far are: Jan - 67.6 Feb - 68.3 Mar - 68.6 Taken from: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarradio.html If you look at the data the flux on March 31st was 71.1 and I read somewhere (sorry, forgotten where exactly) that the flux for April is averaging over 70 so it definitely seems like we've turned the corner and we're on the rise, albeit a very small rise.

The Solar Flux has been gradually rising since the start of the year so that would indicate the minimum was around the start of the year. But that doesn't necessarily mean we'll see many sunspots, especially if you believe Livingston and Penn.