Typhoon John

The latest activity here does seem to be more unusual than what is expect from earthquake swarms experienced in the past. A quick look at the recent quakes in the area of the lake shows they are located at depths from around 6.5km to the surface suggesting rock breaking throughout. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent...15.-105_eqs.php The recent activity on the seismic traces near the lake seems to show some sort of background tremor. AFAIK this would suggest the movement of magma near to, but not necessarily towards, the surface. The seismic traces located further from the lake don't show this behaviour; here's the trace for Old Faithful which I think is about 30 miles from the earthquakes. I'm no expert but on the basis of that evidence it would suggest rocks breaking allowing magma to rise to the surface; presumably some sort of eruption would be expected if this were to continue, but I think that's a big if.

2.3 please

And here, I had no problems and it streamed quickly.

I misinterpreted what I was reading about spotless years and it's not quite what I posted before. 2008 is now the 2nd most spotless since 1900 at least I think, someone may want to check that. I wrote it before as if it was the most spotless year ever but I suppose if I'd thought about it more then I'd have realised that couldn't be the case considering the Maunder. Although it should be said, when you start going further back gaps start to appear in the record so you have to consider what good such a comparison would be anyway. The important bit to consider for me is that this is completely different behaviour to what we've experienced recently and regardless of the exact number of days I think it's notable that we've achieved so many spotless days this cycle and that the sun still appears to be very quiet. 2009 certainly promises to be interesting; if it's another quiet year then I would think cycle 24 will be very weak.

Just to add to the above, I do find volcanoes fascinating anyway! From the above it might seem like I'm only bothered about Chaiten, it's just that if it involves both climate and volcanoes then I'm doubly happy!

I don't have any speciality, I just call things how I see them. My main interest would be climate over say 50 year periods (if you could call that climate timescales). From that I expect in the future I have a bigger interest in Chaiten because I believe its got the best chance of delivering a climate changing eruption.

I like this comment: Surely if you don't have a smoke alarm you should get one immediately and put it up, and not wait until the big day! :lol:

I find the recent activity at Chiaten interesting, dome growth is still occurring at quite a pace and the recent lateral blast shows how unstable the rapid growth is making the domes. I'm no volcano expert but just from a layman's perspective the instability in the caldera, the weight of the domes and the 9000 years of dormancy (presumably something was building underneath to cause the latest activity) must give the volcano a chance of a major eruption if there is a serious failure.

The recent CME wasn't big enough to affect the Earth. There still seems to be no sunspots, I'm not sure how many more spotless days we need to be the second most spotless year, can't be more than two or three. I'm sure if we pass the milestone the usual suspects will let us know.

Current spot is decaying but there may be another spot that's out of view at the moment. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of another burst of activity like we've seen in recent months or if it becomes quiet again. It's going to be close as to whether 2008 beats 1912 for spotless days, I think there needs to be another 7.

I'd say it's slightly warmer than average but nothing to get excited about. It's likely to cool off a little in the short term but at the moment the general trend seems to be about average.

Just to pick up on GP's post above from the Model Thread, am I right in thinking that chart shows a large mountain torque event over both Asia and North America? GP has suggested before that strong mountain torque events can trigger SSW. Considering the current slightly above average stratospheric state with cooling weak and the forecast for average to continue would this event be large enough to possibly trigger a SSW? Or am I way off the mark?

Decent cover here I guess, I'd say I have more than PP's 3cm but I haven't measured it. It's taken me 1 hour 15 mins to to travel 11 miles to work. Snow eased for a while but I'd say it's moderate to heavy here next to the A19 near Peterlee (at work now).

Some spotless facts. Today is the 485th spotless day of this minimum. It's the 241st spotless day this year which puts 2008 joint third for years with the most spotless days. 2008 needs 14 more spotless days this month to make 2008 the 2nd most spotless year recorded, it looks certain to be at least 3rd. The current streak is 16 spotless days. 2007 had 163 spotless days and is the 9th year with the most spotless days. The number one most spotless year is 1913 with 311 spotless days, 1912 is the current number 2 with 253 days.

3.9 please.

I've seen them on the clear days this past week on my drive home from work. They have looked superb and it's nice to finally know exactly which planets I was looking at!

I forgot to mention the time in my report but for some reason I can't edit it. Anyway, it was about 8:30 this morning and the snow I experience was from Shotton Colliery to the A19.

A late report but I drove through heavy wet snow on my way from Durham City to Peterlee this morning. Pavements and road were a little white during the shower. The snow that settled on the cars and grass lasted for about an hour max. Temp on the car thermometer said 1.5 during the shower.

If it reaches the peak of the previous high and is sustained for the week then I think we may be on the cusp of something special for the end of the year. But until then I'm not going to let myself get too excited.

The minimum may have passed, but I don't think we'll see any real upwards trend until the sunspots get bigger and move towards the equator. The sunspots we've had so far have hardly been worth mentioning.

Plymouth is officially abandoned as it would be too costly to excavate. That's not to say that there aren't people in the area though.

I believe there was a year in the 19th century that had 365 spotless days. So I think unless we can beat that then Hathaway will continue to consider this minimum to be not unusual and unremarkable.

I'd say we're pretty much as expected so far, a sharp upturn in ice extent would be a welcome positive sign atm.

They're staying very tight lipped regarding their thoughts on reduced solar activity leading to cooling of the climate. The closest they've got so far was to say that there is a correlation over the long term between extended solar mins and cooler temperatures, for example, the maunder minimum. But no indication on their ideas about the next max or whether an extended min is approaching.

This will either be one of the most exciting announcements or the biggest anticlimax of the year.