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Everything posted by chris55
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Its essentially just dryer air. The dew point is the stage where the air can no longer hold the moisture so it relents and the moisture gathers on solids, like dew on the grass. In my experience cold dry air often feels less cold than more humid cold air. Moisture conducts heat more readily than air, meaning a cold damp day feels colder than a day when the air is dry, but the temp is lower. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4799672
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
chris55 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Its essentially just dryer air. The dew point is the stage where the air can no longer hold the moisture so it relents and the moisture gathers on solids, like dew on the grass. In my experience cold dry air often feels less cold than more humid cold air. Moisture conducts heat more readily than air, meaning a cold damp day feels colder than a day when the air is dry, but the temp is lower. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
chris55 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
polar low territory? Can’t remember the exact parameters for a true polar low to develop but looks possible. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
chris55 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Reminds me of xmas day 2004, snow shower late on the day gave a nice seasonal dusting in parts of Gloucestershire -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
chris55 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bank that Ali This December so far has shaped up to be the best for cold and snow we have seen for many years. If we could get another fall over xmas that’d just be the icing on the cake. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Be sad to see all the snow melt. Today is the first day I can here a drip drip. So that’s pretty much a week of lying snow which is very rare for here! Been a memorable spell in Stroud and surrounding areas. Sunday IMG_9250.MOV Monday Wednesday And this little guy…..who’s time is up ️ -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Xmas weekend into Boxing Day looks to have the potential for a battleground snow event somewhere in the U.K. Lots to get through yet mind! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully that’ll drive some WAA into the Artic due to the lack of zonal flow generally -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Coldest night in England since 2010 last night. -11c That’s remarkable for central U.K. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Trop PV is shredded. U.K. winter still on the cards. Easterly the form horse into new year IMO. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don’t forget the “brutal cold” outside right now for the U.K….. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It would only be ‘rage inducing’ if it verified…… long way to go yet. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes but surely the foundations for the algorithm is set from past knowledge and events. Even though, once that instruction is initiated it just processes the data. What im getting at is basically if we were in a standard zonal flow with a big trop PV over Canada the modelling would be a little more straightforward for what reasons that would be is up for debate. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are you sure about that Mike? Surely the model Algorithm has historic data dialled into the code? It would seem unthinkable these computers wouldn’t use the wealth of past data to predict new events? Absolutely genuine question here. Done a bit of Googling but didn’t have time to read through all the articles. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
These ensembles are to far apart for any confidence in the forecast, some very cold runs in there (London) p1 and p 6 the two extremes - coldest and mildest for xmas eve. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Im actually really looking forward to what the ECM has for us this evening. GFS short ensembles showing op on the milder side. London. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surely these super computer have a “average” bias locked into their algorithms? With the NH profile as it, and with the constant chopping and changing with each operational, and to some extent the ensembles, I would think we need to be really careful if we are trying to make forecasts beyond the 4/5 day period. Plenty to get though in the shorter term before we can be confident in the mid term -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just look at how the NH profile is causing big swings in the mid term, for the U.K. at least! The one line brigade on here need to be a little more pragmatic throughout the day IMO. Still could go anywhere over xmas TBH but we gotta see the pattern for what it is and factor that into our analysis (which most do.)