chris55

Deffo potential, a very blocked set up with the Russian high itching to move west, Atlantic ridge toppled in on the 12z and we end up with a mid lat U.K. high with an easterly of sorts.

Day 10 GFS not without potential….

GFS 00z suit with some colder runs into Feb, though lots of scatter. Op on the mild side.

I think in the mid term our only chance is a more amplified Atlantic ridge toppling into some sort of sceuro’ high. Looks a long shot to get a proper easterly flow going though, as with the pressure from the PV over the top any scandi/Sceuro’ high would tend to be flattened. However a continental influence at least to begin with could then develop into something a bit better. GFS ensembles showing quite a big spread in 850s, those colder runs going with the northerly toppler into the Sceuro high.

High pressure dominance isn’t all bad. Many will see plenty of sunshine, cold frosty nights and some freezing fog this week. Personally I much prefer this weather type to a zonal pattern, be that cold or mild. Cold zonality doesn’t favour most of the population if snow is your preference. Cold rain and sleet can be rather grotty. Nothing worse than ice cold rain! We’ll just have to sit tight and wait for the snowfall in Feb eh

Cold plunge later this week as shown on ensembles. Should be cold and at crisp least. P26 with best case scenario with pattern backed west and a slight easterly feed developing in the south afterwards.

6z GFS not bad. Looks to be toying with pressure rises towards scandi with the Atlantic held back. I get the feeling our next phase of ‘potential’ will be from a scandi high 12z so far

Very cold day here in Stroud. Temperature -3.1c this morning with a hard frost. Daytime max hardly made it above freezing with frost all day in the shade. I was working in Gloucester and felt bitter. Back home now and at 1C with fog coming and going. Overall the most wintry feeling day of the winter so far. Also saw a shooting start this morning at 7am. The inversion, with no wind mixing in the milder air above, has certainly been the coldest spell of the winter for my area. .

Always said the 6z GfS was the best model….

ICON potentially frosty and cold Tuesday night into Wednesday for England and Wales.

So you class observational data as “your personal interpretation” of the data going forward. I would class “Observational data” as the starting data for a model run. Anyway onto the 18z

I don’t see the Azores high (over the Azores) to be in a highly anonymously or unusual state. Do you?

Yes but the resolution of 9km refers to the “clarity” of the data inputted into the starting data. if you input 30km grid data you get a less detailed and accurate forecast. Like a poor quality YouTube video. (For example)

Surely this applies to all aspects of the data and not just the Azores high? Obsevational = starting data Computational = Model running and computing an outcome. I’m very confused by your reasoning TBH.

What? Model resolution is very different to YouTube resolution! Imagine running ECM at 30km resolution (like a grainy YouTube video) Currently ECM is run at 9km and the ensembles at 18km. You referred to ECM 240 losing resolution, it doesn’t .

Not in the context you quoted me with though. Any day 10 chart will lose reliability, but not every day 10 chart loses resolution. I think GFS reduces resolution at day 10 onwards. Hence the term FI. Important to clarify.

Reliability yes, but you said ‘resolution’. I’m pretty sure ECM op doesn’t lose resolution at 240. big difference in the two terms

Why would day 10 lose the Azores high vs day 8 or 9 ? Surely it’s just the data that’s predicting this evolution (right or wrong) nothing to do with resolution. Or does the ECM actually lose resolution at day 10 vs day 9??

ECM day 10 in line with those colder clusters evolving on the GEFS. Not to bad TBH. With the easterly QBO hopefully something will come to fruition eventually

Well the GFS operational is on the milder side of the ensembles. So confidence low. Colder options in the ascendancy on the ensembles.

That cold cluster is gathering pace! Minus 15s appearing :0 (just about)

Clear trend from the short GEFS towards day 10, though Op and control both milder options , a distinct cluster heading cold.

I would say a sharp morning frost and a sunny bright day is a wintry feeling day, add in some fog/freezing fog and even more so. But as I said, only “if” the skies clear under the high, and that looks more likely in the southern half of the U.K. away from the coasts. if it remains cloudy it’ll be just be grey.

So it looks like a settled spell next week, with what could be some very wintry feeling days “if” the high allows skies to clear and frost and fog to form. Then followed by a cold North/North West flow initially leading to a more straight Northerly possibly. How cold the airmass gets after the initial NW flow is up for grabs as the 6Z ensembles clearly show! Control in the mix of the colder/coldest runs with more of a northerly Seems like pretty standard winter fair TBH. The hunt for the mother of all freezes continues. But in the meantime plenty of weather about.

GFS op on the mild side from day 8, some much colder runs in the pack ECM not without interest going into days 8-10 Nothing to get to excited about but at least something to focus on cold wise as we go forward.