chris55

Just went out for a breath of fresh and and some tiny flakes blowing around......can only be seen in the light on the patio lol.

That'll be 'long thin parallel streaks' then..... Ian should stick with clearer/simpler language IMO, when tweeting to the masses.

EC 192 bringing the cold flow back!!

This front is crucial for those in the west, just hoping it actually delivers some snowfall.

Looking at GFS 168 and that high is perfectly aligned, will be interesting to see how ECM models it at this range. Overall a continuation of the cold spell looks odds on. GFS 168. We just need a proper England/Wales blizzard thrown in to make this a classic spell, and when there is so much cold air about that is more likely than not.

GFS shows the front just touching Cornwall at midnight Thursday...lets hope it makes progress inland before fizzling. EDIT, it fizzles.... although im not convinced on the eventual outcome just yet.

That is a bit odd. Thursday looks to early for the front anyway, regardless of what it is? Also if its 'very cold with brisk easterly winds', at the very least it would be freezing rain, or a wintry mix. Maybe they let the admin staff do the updates on a Sunday

Just highlighting the risk of some snow showers pushing through some places tomorrow. Seeing as we have a very cold week coming up it would be nice if a few of us could get a dusting early on.

Latest EURO 4.

Area of vorticity showing increased risk of showers into to tomorrow morning.

GFS for Friday morning, The end of the week is our best shot at some more widespread/persistent snowfall. Hopefully the models will continue to bring the front inland far enough. The front also needs to be ahead of the milder air aloft. Its going to be all about timing/intensity and positioning.

Euro 4 highlighting the favourable angle on the streamers coming in NE/SW as storm Darcy pulls away. Certainly possibilities of these showers making it over the Westcountry with a stiff breeze. If you are lucky enough to be in the direct line of one the streams the showers could just keep coming. Nothing to dramatic, but will be interesting to watch this evolve into tomorrow.

Just seen that forecast, look like plenty of showers packing in right over the country including our region. Louise even mentioned the Moores of the SW, and Wales.

For those in the west, you'd hope there would be a stalling front over the UK in the mix at 144..... Overall theme......cold stays firmly in charge!

Following GEM.

EC 96 for those wanting to see the chart in the thread.

Thats a marked shift from the 00z ens, mean barely above zero with both control and op both staying very cold throughout! 00z for comparison.

Since 1996 we have had very few cold February's, coldest being 2010 at 2.8C. A cold Feb is long overdue and going on recent runs we have a decent chance of the coldest Feb in over 25 years! I always think how February should have the potential to be the coldest of the three winter months but it simply hasn't materialised in the last few decades. I think March has been colder on numerous occasions. Models showing how a continuation of the cold could help that CET go lower than we have seen for at least 25 Years! Exciting times

GEM looking very good this eve. The block is setting up further north with good WAA this is the best case for the longer term bringing back the very cold 850s rather than surface cold. GEM has been excellent recently, and was steadfast with this initial easterly right out at day 8. Then again with the Atlantic being pinned back, now its going for a higher lat block than the GFS. Will ECM follow suite as it has the last few runs..... Overall an historic period coming up by the looks of it.......

Freezing rain I would imagine, with the very cold surface and milder air aloft.

Looking at the 18z 2M temps on the ensemble graph you can see a split of two clusters from the 12th, with the Op and Control both in the cold set that continue the sub zero maxes right out till the 15th!!! Thats getting on for 10 days at or below freezing.

Certainly possible cold remains at the surface but a way to go before we know what's going to happen...... 18z bringing in snow from the Atlantic incursion Thursday, with max temps Saturday and Sunday well below zero for most! So if that snow did materialise it'd hang around for sure. Based on 18z run only...... Thursdays snow 2 meter temps Sat and Sun!!!

Sunday next week on ECM. 00z vs 12z Anyone think the mid term is a little uncertain.....seems like its searching for a way to keep the continental/easterly flow but failing miserably... 00z for next sunday 12 for next Sunday (12 hours ahead)

This is a good point to pick up on. Neither post is correct. It highlights how we need to interpret the charts rather than take them at face value when we get beyond around 96h, and especially in non zonal pattern. I have said lots of times recently that the Atlantic low incoming Thursday looks like it "should" disrupt and edge south east as its coming up against the dense cold blocking air in situ. Lots of people disagree, and that's not a problem, we are all giving our own individual views on the runs. Tonights UKMO didn't take that path and edged that Low north east, along with the GFS suite (which tends to be progressive anyway) the "trend" at that point was for the low to push in at an unfavourable angle and eventually usher in milder air.Hence my interpretation of the run. I said "await ECM with interest" that was to see how that model dealt with it. Since then we have had GEM with a slower evolution and next we will see what ECM shows. So basically its not an exact science, take everyones interpretations and make your own judgments, that's a good way en joy the thread and all the conflicting opinions

GEM looking more realistic. GFS is always progressive, and I think UKMO is a bit quick on the operational (would be nice to see the UKMO ens but we can't) GEM showing snowfall into the south west at dat 6 continuing into day 7 north of Somerset. The milder air does push through and moves the snow line further north on Saturday. I try not to be to IMBY in the thread, but seeing as we have had a lot of talk about the SE quadrant, thought i'd wave the flag for the south west. Still a long way to go with this, and as I have said before, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up with a sustained/renewed easterly feed before the milder Atlantic air gets established in any meaningful way.