chris55

Took delivery of these bad boys as well today…….️ Kids (and me ) can’t wait to give them a go !

UKMO is an absolute boss this morning! Heavy snow into the southern half of the U.K. Christmas night :0 THE chart of this entire model watching period imo!

I noticed that as well, just hangs around and draws in some milder air. Initially looking good for shape and position though

Control is a great run. Highlights how the cold and dence air, without any real forcing, can often develop some fridged surface conditions without the huge and obvious Greenland or Scandi highs. At 144 we can see the weak ridge nudging in with the trough just filling and a col of sorts developing within the very cold air. The less obvious charts are sometimes the best. On to the 00zs (don’t think I’ve ever posted at 4am before must be xmas time )

We are essentially relying on the “Pizza wedge/ridge to allow the cold air to sink further south late xmas eve into xmas day. This reduces the chance of frontal snow from incoming fronts but means cold air get further south quicker. ECM GFS 6z no “pizza” which means cold much further north. Boundary snowfall likely Scotland GEM however is right in the middle, pizzas been half eaten but low track further south, Snowmageddon midlands/south. Beyond xmas day into the following week lots and lots of potential for southerly tracking lows and boundary snowfall, just depends where that boundary lies.

Just commenting on the fact the op and control were so far away from the mean but close to each other, quite unusual. (2meter temps)

Op and control BOTH right at the bottom of the suite. Can’t remember such a set before!

Depends where you live…… Though on a serious note it’s more about the overall synoptic pattern than the snowfall details at this range.

None in stock anywhere! I tried this morning lol

Fantastic, a Nick I can actually relate to. Excellent summary. Good charts. Good analysis. ??

Nothing

How can a model run be obsessed with complications? Or in a festive mood? Surely they are just computer algorithms……..

That was a very nice gfs operational! (still back a few pages but hopefully EC willcontinue the theme)

Looking better

UKMO looking good at 168 GFS a bit rubbish at 168 Await the ECM….

Cold air digging in xmas day into Boxing Day Boundary frontal snowfall a possibility as the cold air tucks in. Also snow showers in the north. Overall a slower evolution to colder conditions but the long wave pattern with the substantial Greenland high is very good for sustained cold.

Think of Neo in the matrix, its an imperfect manifest anomaly in an otherwise perfect weather forecast algorithm

Cotswolds/South Wales/ Bristol to get pasted with snow in these set ups …… I’ll get my coat….. (winter coat and the sledge )

Fantastic ECM

“I’m dreaming of a white Christmas” ️ I don’t think i can remember an xmas day easterly being shown on the charts in my 20 years of model. Still a way to go obviously but a seasonal xmas is looking more and more likely:)

So when ecm 168 is loaded with potential, but the suite trends slightly less cold it gets all the hate….but a 46 day trend model goes the other way. Resulting in “not happy” then “happy again” in that order! Bloody Nora. All hyperbole.

Looking pretty dam good going into xmas week on ECM this evening Longwave pattern loaded IMO. All the ‘bits’ will be decided nearer the time :)

Trend for the high to be getting colder and colder at the surface as we head into and through xmas week. Atlantic influence being reduced. If it verified like the GFS 12z then I would reckon on lots of fog and frost for many away from coast. Potentially quite festive, even without any snowfall at this stage

This is a nice ECM as we head into Christmas week. Proper job with regards to WAA no toppler there!

EC producing the first noteworthy day 10 chart of the season….. nice to be back on the hunt