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Everything posted by chris55
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This isn’t over yet IMO. UKMO quicker with the initial low allowing a small ridge ahead of the second/spoiler low. This keeps the spoiler low out west keeping the cold in place. With the NH profile, it kinda feels like dec 2010, when all roads led to cold, even when the Ops and sometimes then ens were scouting out a milder option. Great model watching -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s a really good visualisation of the situation, looks like this push from the Atlantic may be hardly noticeable! By the time surface conditions have mixed out its back to a colder trend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a U.K. high of sorts holding us in the cold throughout with the Atlantic Low being more elongated come next weekend. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So part of the Trop PV moves across the globe from east to west, with another cross polar flow setting up on EC 240…. December 2022 going down in the history books at this rate! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This looks totally feasible to me. I was thinking two roads to continued cold earlier, one being the Atlantic ridge (ahead of the Atlantic low) reinforcing heights towards Greenland . As above -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Azores high…normally the game maker looks a bit shy….. I think we are in the game, at least to some extent till the end of the month. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The queue from the Atlantic looks pretty pathetic tbh! If compared to the energy on the other side of the globe. Anything beyond day 5 in such a turbulent period should be analysed with some caution either way. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If these Atlantic lows can disrupt a little and draw up an Atlantic ridge ahead then surely this cold spell has a way to go yet! When looking at the NH profile, that looks like a decent bet at the moment. Its either an Atlantic ridge ahead of the Lows reinforcing the Greenland heights, or the lows make a bit more progress and inflate a Scandi high instead. That’s our two routes to continuing cold IMO. 12zs incoming -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Nick, With such an anomalous NH profile, do you think we can use the longer range spreads with the same confidence as in a more mobile/usual winter scenario? Or should we be more cautious than normal with the longer range predictions? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fortunately, the NH synoptic profile is so primed for U.K. cold we are continuing the cold theme. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where on earth has the trop PV gone!! These charts are super rare!! Canada is visible….not purple :0 Surely snowfall will come one way or another with such exceptional NH Synoptics. Great times to be in the MOD The snow WILL come….. -
A few hundred miles either way and it’s either northern France or the north of England on the boundary. As everyone should be aware these charts deciphering an Atlantic low coming up against a cold block are impossible to get right at this range. More runs needed. ECM can not be ignored, and it shouldn’t be also the ensembles are trending tentatively with the Azores low pushing further north, but we need some inter run consistency and solid ensemble support before we can call It.
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Why only talk about ECM? Take UKMO for example! All this debate relates to the Azores low and how it eventually interacts with the cold blocked pattern over the U.K. Experience tells us these Atlantic incursions often fall short, earlier today BA was suggesting anywhere from Pyrenees to Scotland for the boundary! More runs needed
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The modelling of the Azores Low seems to be the trigger here. IMO your confidence in its track at day 6/7 is premature. We shall see, but at this range, surely measured forecasters will await full ensemble support before making a solid judgment? I’ll hold you to your assumption it will barrel through and bring milder weather to the entire U.K. ,boundary blizzard aside for now - transitory or not.