chris55

EC 216 looks loaded…..cold tap available. Blocking insane! Slow burner. Many many more runs needed though

Hence I said the overall trend is sound just cherry picking ensemble charts will only result in people saying the models are ‘rubbish’ if they don’t come off, which they won’t specifically (individual members)

That south east flow deffo on the cards, hopefully a slow burner as I mentioned before…. This much blocking will through the models into meltdown imo

Matt, these are GFS ensemble members at day 10+ like 240-340 hours! They look pretty (and the overall trend is sound) but individually they are pretty meaningless regarding the forecast? Yea? Or no?

UKMO at 168 looks good. A more robust long wave pattern. Cool/cold at the surface, and within the reasonable reach of the operation run.

It’s GFS operational at +318 hours! Does it mean something or just eye candy? The trend is positive though

To be fair the initial block could well drag up some milder southeasterly air rather than tapping into the colder air. All depends on the position of the block and how far in the Atlantic lows make it. I think the block will be more of a slow burner. Initially just settling things down. It’s the progression from there that we need to keep an eye on.

Nice to see the forum getting busier with a more blocked pattern upcoming. Looking forward to following all the dramas in the weeks and months ahead Hopefully some snowfalls and ice days incoming. Sales of heated blankets will be through the roof! I’ve got mine ready .

Track/intensity of Eunice….. ECM trending south. Icon very south. GFS as previous. Where the wind blows and the snow falls is all down to how Eunice develops. Northen England/southern Scotland most likely to see snowfall with Wales/South west most likely to see the strongest winds, but with a more southerly track that changes. More runs needed.

All down to how much this low spins up, the more it ‘bombs’ the further north it will track. Icon and control modelling a weaker low hence it’s northern edge and associated snow risk are further south and those damaging winds are less of a worry. You’d have to say UKMO and GFS op are more likely to be correct but still time for adjustments from the main models.

Control takes the low Friday into the channel, unlikely but highlights the possibility some in the south could still be in with a chance! The Cotswolds would get an absolute pasting if this track verified.

Cold sunny and frosty from the UKMO once the cold front clears south on Wednesday into Thursday. Should feel pleasant by day with some hard frosts by night.

Hey MWB where are you getting that 168 UKMO on Meteo? Mine only goes to 144.

Some unusually cold air crossing the North Atlantic associated with the high exiting North America. The cold air over the U.K. has actually come from the west at day 7. If only we could get some more amplification as the ridge moves in.

Some potential at 168 on the GfS 6z. Gets rolled over later though.

I can but dream..

That ridge and Atlantic low interaction once again pushing the long wave set up in a more interesting direction on the 12z…

That high pressure cell moving out of east Canada around day 7 hinting at a pattern ‘disturbance’ of sorts. Been showing on ecm and gfs for a few days in different forms. Forcing lows south. Something to watch.

Slightly unusual 12z ECM with the low moving towards the Azores, and the ridge to the north. Scotland in the colder air.

Can someone pass the sick bucket… Im normally very much glass half full when viewing the models, but unless we get a change in the next week or two I’m thinking this could be the first winter without even a flake of snow in my location for as long as I can remember. We need a rabbit out the hat moment.

ECM ensemble spaghetti now available on Wetter which is nice.

Certainly signs of something a little more interesting in the runs today. A clear dip in 850s with the troughs moving into scandi pulling down some colder air around 4th Feb onwards. 850s London 6z.

UKMO 12z best for a while Some very cold air bottled up to the north! If only the ridge could gain some traction and build north we’d be in business. No VWAA though so would likely topple at 192.

Just discussing the output not to say it will verify.

No I wasn’t referring to the milder flow on that chart date, but the potential for an easterly to form afterwards. A southerly feed directly to the west of the U.K. reaching up to the higher latitudes -caused by blocking high pressure over the U.K. - can be a precursor to an easterly. Admittedly, that chart isn’t the best example, with the WAA being cut off. However I did say potential. here is an example of what I was getting at (as you full well knew) These archive charts are 4 days apart.