chris55

Looking at both the UKMO 144 and GFS 144 you can see a lot of interest synoptically, with a return to a colder flow brewing.... I know its like wading through quicksand, but we do need the cold air in place for ANY chance of snow, so tonights runs not looking top bad at all IMO up to day 6 (which in the current set, up is FI anyway) UKMO and GFS at 144.

Haven't ventured into the Mod thread yet this eve or checked any runs except the GFS Para.....and it looks a peach up 200h, repeated fronts turning to snow then this at 192.....Now ill go and check the GFS and UKMO to be brought back down to earth lol...

Forecasting beyond day 5 is always going to be tricky. The atmosphere is ever moving, ever changing, so forecasts beyond this timeframe will ebb and flow based on the newest data. The Met office have a workforce of experienced and trained staff to interpret the data and they also have access to the best computer models over and above what we get to see. So although they may not be correct all the time using the Met Forecast is absolutely worthwhile. Not sure if people get 'excited' but definitely pay attention to the forecasts. Netweather members can certainly add a slightly more open view on things as we are not accountable to the nation, an I think that's an important point.

Nice snow flurries up in a Cranham village (working up here) giving a sugar coating

️ Para really going for it with a quick return to proper cold!

If the cold does come back in, a period of warmer dry weather would be a nice interlude!

For anyone who hasn't seen the METOFFICE longer range update issued at 4pm today, it certainly highlights the risk of more snowfalls in the west going through the rest of feb. Doesn't look like they are expecting the Atlantic airmass to push through completely with a few mentions of snowfalls..... Here it is if you haven't seen it in the met office thread UK long range weather forecast Sunday 14 Feb - Tuesday 23 Feb It will remain cold or very cold with strong winds on Sunday but potentially turning milder over western areas. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible, whilst staying mostly dry and bright in central and southeastern areas. Further into this period, snow and wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas, especially over higher ground but not confined to. Although confidence weakens later in the period, the best of any sunshine looks to be in eastern and northeastern areas, with unsettled conditions mainly towards the west. Strong winds are likely throughout with the risk of coastal gales and temperatures overall remaining cold, with mild interludes in the west. Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021 Tuesday 23 Feb - Tuesday 9 Mar After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Eastern areas are also likely to see some further snow showers, with the best of any dry bright and sunny weather in the north and northwest. Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021

Taking the GFS 18z as raw data, Bristol gets 30 hours of precipitation showing as snowfall before the milder air finally pushes through.... 84h to 116h....each 6h frame in-between is showing ppn as snow for Bristol.

Meanwhile.....in Ipswich .... (I feel we might derail the thread if we continue but couldn’t resist) IMG_4922.MP4 IMG_4921.MP4

Thought this was quite apt....and true for us lot at the moment made me lol while scrolling through Tiktok, and instantly thought of Netweather IMG_4920.MOV

Greece always gets all he cold eh....we are so unlucky ... Oh wait a minute what's this chart for tomorrow all about ......

No one needs to explain sublimation or city warming to the ECM raw data.... that is what the MET office/pros/us lot do.....interpret the raw data! Looks like some snow for the Cotswolds once I know where Cardiff is....

BANK

Im assuming the green bars are night time temps? If that's the case then Wednesday and Thursday are close to record breaking I would think. The day time temps up to 0c vs -2C probably relates to the clear skys, a little solar input in the day and a very clear sky at night. Quite amazing night time temps!

Thats a beauty of a chart Griff, should be a front stalled in there for the west, and the cold feed comes back in for the east and everyone for that matter. This cold spell is getting very interesting...... At 216 although 850s are not all singing and dancing the flow at the surface it bitter!!! Hopefully by this point we would all have a covering of snow and can enjoy the -10c nighttime temps!

looking back at ECM 120, and that's a classic chart for the precursor to an easterly setting up. Good WAA and a cold pool to the east. ECM 120

ECM 168 is looking great! Energy going under.

(Warning....slightly west based bias in this post...) Easterlies are rubbish anyway.......this is tongue in cheek lol. Though without a proper disturbance/low in the feed the snowfall risk for the west tends to be minimal. So the thought of another easterly like this one isn't on my radar TBH Obviously it depends where you live in the UK, Scotland has done very well generally this winter, and the east are seeing some decent snowfalls this week. Us in the West need some frontal incursions from the Atlantic and GFS is the kind of pattern we need to see for that to happen. As long as the cold airmass can sustain generally and the Atlantic doesn't sweep in, then the trend from GFS this eve is a really good one if you I've in the West. UKMO looked poor generally tonight at 144 for anything sustained after the Atlantic pushes east, just generally a less cold flow, GEM similar. Lets see what ECM has to offer up.

Well its not all rain, at least initially, and we have to think how these systems have been pushed back west repeatedly in the current set up. Though IF, and its a big if, the pattern sets up like the GFS 12z there is some chance at least of these fronts holding back way more than being shown on this evenings runs.

Long way off but GFS Operational setting that 'battleground' scenario once again. 12z is close to the kind of pattern we need to see in the SW for some proper snowfall. This run not quite aligning all the pieces and the mild air pushes through, but the trend could be a good one if it can gain some support and back off the Atlantic a bit. Seeing as this week looks very cold but without to much significant snowfall in our region (up to Friday anyway) something like the GFS is what we need to be looking out for going forward.

Stays well south.

GFS for Friday, front just about makes it in for most. Devon and Cornwall looking well placed at the moment...

Dusting overnight here

Id still prefer the high to be to far north at this stage, we all know how progressive GFS can be.,

To be fair we were only a nats whisker away from a similar set up today. If DARCY had set up over Southern England instead of Holland it could have been an historic event for the southern half of the UK. We need all the ingredients to align perfectly though, and back in feb 91 they did just that.