chris55

GFS ensembles pointing to a below average period towards the end of the month. With all the mild weather we have seen recently it will certainly feel more seasonal out there. London.

UKMO with heights building to the north....

UKMO 144 raising an eyebrow tonight....Im ready for spring, but if winter wants to make comeback then that's fine by me.

6th March booked for a Snow day ......forget the fact its a 384h GFS Operational run chart in isolation.... its deffo a snow day

ECM looking very mild on Sunday! These mild conditions are always being pushed back a day or two......:)

12z GFS spaghetti showing some renewed scatter from 22nd...some colder runs in there. The recent change to this milder airmass has been a really nice change, but as ever, Im looking to continue the chase for snow right out till the end of March. Certainly a downward trend here. A return of -12 850s and a biting dry easterly isn't on my menu, but a day or two of snowfall most definitely would be, and that's more than achievable right through till late march.

Being under these kind of echoes on the Radar you would expect some moderate snow....hardly anything making down to the ground. The sublimation is really in action big time! Im thinking as the air mass become moister any following ppn may well fall to the ground, that’s if the ppn makes it overhead.

Looking at the Met Office ‘future radar” it has definitely pepped thing up. Almost a hook developing......? Could be a bit of circulation in there.

Come on move east east east!!!

The band does look to be intensifying somewhat, from about Hereford down to the south coast, which is surprising!

Very light snow made it past the M5! Im in Eastington at the moment and can confirm a little snow.

I’ve had three lol....and that was just my breakfast If I see any white ones I’ll report

Radar showing the ppn a little further east than forecast? Some more intense stuff around the Severn estuary, hopefully it can hold on as it moves up the vale.

Im not convinced that UKMO 144 is a game over kind of chart. The Atlantic trough is vigorous but its negatively tilted and struggling against the deep cold over Scandi. A disruption of the trough with a wedge of heights developing over the Norwegian Sea isn't out of the question. Will be interesting to see how ECM deals with 144 plus.

WAA on UKMO 120 reaches right into the Artic, not sure what to make of it really . But you'd think it would help establish a decent high. At 144 UKMO isn't to far of ECM 144 from this morning. A return to a cold flow is looking likely IMO, maybe from day 8-9?

UKMO 144, a different solution. We get an undercut of sorts, but to far north. Scandi high replaced by the Arctic ridge.

As AWD says a chance for a bit of light snow tomorrow. ICON

At day 8 ECM looking blocked...

UKMO looking 'loaded' tonight.... if we can pull in another cold feed let's hope it results in some more widespread snowfall. The current spell has been historical, and the depth of the cold is very rare, but we have been unlucky in terms of snowfall away from the areas you'd expect to see snow in this kind of set up. If Darcy had set up over the UK rather than Holland this spell would have gone down in NW history , but alas, you can't win them all. A few more weeks left for the "chase" to continue and UKMO keeping cold potential in the mix for sure.

Just went out into the back garden and the stars are incredibly clear, Orion and the Plough looking majestic.

Ive actually wrapped up my Mediterranean "Oleander' plant which is in the border in the garden, its got through the last 7 UK winters but tonights potential low temps has got me concerned lol.

The GFS 12z operational is right on the mean on the ensembles to the 20th, but im looking at the potential evolution from day 6 rather than actual output. An ensemble suite can flip in just a few runs. A few runs scouting out a colder scenario. Ensembles for Stroud, placed north within the region.

Thanks for the info Ice, I was just doing the same thing with Snowmans 192 post....thinking what is this madness! How that passed me by im not sure lol. Maybe a good idea for folks to post which model variation it is from now on. Two GFS and two ECM runs ..... Im re-naming them both the 'shadow' runs.

Im confused? They are both the same date and time stamp.....they are the same chart but slightly different?

The Euros are sniffing out a cold/continental/easterly type scenario IMO. Both UKMO and ECM at 144 looking interesting.