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Everything posted by chris55
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sub 520 thicknesses for England and wales with 850s at -6 to -8! Scotland even colder! -12 at 510 :0 -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
0c isotherm right down to the Pyrenees! -
Love Juniper, I used to live in Uplands so just a 15 minute walk up the hill, so know it well up and around there. Used to take my German Shepherd on long walks sun rain or snow:) And yes, skies finally cleared late this afternoon, should be a bitterly cold night and a stunning day tomorrow! Proper winter stuff
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Went for a walk up Juniper today (about 180meters asl) took the truck up the icy lane and parked at the farm. Absolutely zero melt at this elevation and a winter wonderland three days after the fall, that’s extremely rare, I can only remember the snow staying like this a few times in the last 15 years. I was hoping for some sunshine but the clouds have only just cleared. Cows needed their troughs broken (bad farm practice tbh) they were very thirsty. a few “fence post snowmen/lady’s as well. Overall a beautiful, if not blooming freezing walk.
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s a brave forecast at day 10! Also is that for the entire U.K. or just your location? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With a NH profile like this it’s understandable the models will be more changeable in the mid term. We are right on the edge of the cold/milder boundary, and with the forcing coming from the north I don’t see the Euro heights as a massive problem as they are not ‘locked in’ so to speak just meandering. If we can get a slight move east of the main trough to our north then cold would win out entirely. Fascinating model watching for sure! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yea, if we can avoid cluster 1 then the pattern remains decent. Cluster 4 preferred:) -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO doesn’t show it mild across the country! There would be heavy snowfall on the northern side of that low. I would predict it would disrupt and fizzle dragging colder air further south with it. If we could get a little more west to east momentum in the southerly lows, into Scandi, then more snow could be in the cards with the southerly tracking nature of the pattern. Long way off yet mind….. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Super EC 168 cold flooding back southwards, Arctic high, Baffin/Greenland high. Xmas slider anyone?….. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Decent agreement between them at 168 and zero sign of an Atlantic ‘spoiler’ More like Baffin ballon pump -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can we pull off an 80s style “oh the snow will turn to rain, but actually it just stayed as snow…” type situation come Sunday…… With the current set up I wouldn’t discount it. Im not convinced either way at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO looking very good. Snow showers packing into the north west U.K. and NI. Cold mild boundary pushed south with cold winning the battle, milder air hardly makes any progress at all! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chris55 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s a name for that NH profile, I just can’t remember it… where is that guy who used to post a lot gone? The sausage guy Anyway, that’s a good NH pattern for cold potential.