chris55

Yes just noticed lol.

I would suggest letting people comment on charts in the MOD as they wish. BOOM (nailed)

Spiketastic:) Op with one of the lowest ppn totals. Complex modelling with this little feature. Still undecided:)

I’ve seen GFS get these shorter term outliers correct in the past. Not often but can definitely happened. The consistency between the 00 and 06 is important. Let’s see what the 12z brings

That’s the highest part of the Cotswolds Ali (as you no doubt know) but does highlight how the Cotswolds and Brecon’s could be a very good place to be. With geographical elevation snow depths could well pile up!

That is a little beauty of a feature from GFS, intense channel low wrapping in some cold Arctic air, a classic TBH Lots of variables would need to come together just right for it to verify, depth of low is an important one, to weak and it’ll skirt south and not have the spin to undercut the cold air into the system. One to watch for sure

The sun has very little to do with snow melt. It’s all about moisture content in the air. Being situated in a very warm ocean (geographically) helped on by the NAD (Scotland terms…) Gulf Stream for the rest of us, means if we get a whiff of maritime air in the mix the snow will melt….a good Strong easterly (very rare) with a full continental flow and low wet bulbs and dew points mean zero melt. sunshine can actually enhance the snowy pleasure…like being in the alps with sunscreen

Quite a cold 00z from GFS. initially northerly flow transfers to a cold high pressure, some cold days and frosty nights for many if it was to verify this way. Cold side of the ensembles though.

Will be interesting to see if UKMO is onto something…. Just one run obviously, but It’s not that uncommon for a colder signal to be picked up at day 6, rather than tick down from 384 on GFS. If the 12z suits start to sniff out something similar then could get a little more positive in here.

More often than not a cold signal will appear in the models and ensemble suites in the 7–10 day range. Obviously the prevailing and default westerly pattern will continue in the models until a blocking signal is picked up.

With little forcing in our part of the northern hemisphere, no raging PV over Greenland, and relatively high pressure to our north, along with cold Arctic air bottled up over northern Scandinavia. The only glimmer of hope would be the Atlantic low and Iberian ridge could do us a favour and work together to amplify the pattern sucking that ridge north resulting in the mother of all easterlies Hopeful and unlikely, probably, but worth watching, why not

It’s the change with the runner to the south. The fact it’s not phasing with the initial slider means it doesn’t allow the associated milder Atlantic air to get into the mix. This was a major factor this morning.

At least it’s something to focus on (though the short term is far from settled) otherwise we’ll all have to speak to our family at xmas and watch Eastenders….as long as the models are not locked in zonal we still have hope

I thought us British were the best at queuing…? Patient and hopeful ??

Look at the broader Synoptics. Yes a few grains of sand, but the WAA and broad scale pattern isn’t a lost cause by any means.

That kind of chart is your classic precursor to an epic Easterly flow…….

This little low phasing with the slider was causing the milder influx initially. Nice to see it separated on UKMO

The pizza wedge is back. After this morning I felt like Michelangelo was done with his pizza…. now it’s all Anchovies…….. ECM doesn’t like anchovies …..(but at least the spoiler shortwave is well south) still a way to go on this saga I’m thinking !

Could we get a Christmas miracle and remember the morning of the 22nd December as the biggest wobble in model history…… tell you later lol

Well that all got rubbed out pretty quickly! Oh well, onto the next Merry Christmas everyone

6 members with an ice day for inland southern England/midlands :0

Op on the milder side away from the cluster for London. Looks isolated within the suite, all to do with the cold/mild boundary sits.

London 00z ensembles showing the op on the mild side initially (with that mild air wrapping around the low Boxing Day. Overall a very good set going forward.

That’s the UKMO Kasim

GEM more like GFS with the little secondary Low moving up from the south west, rather than sliding in with the main trough. Lots to be decided yet (and tbh the low does begin to engage the colder air at 120) but shows the different possibilities.