crimsone
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Posts posted by crimsone
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3 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
Think the army is being sent out, Ireland Defence forces? on latest tweet
Makes sense. At the bare minimum, I'd imagine 35' waves results in a lot of need for sand-bagging in some of the coastal regions.
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6 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:
The Peak District is back on the edge of 50% chance again of seeing tropical-winds from the latest NHC update, with many tops at +1300ft being exposed to swly's i'm assuming that height also comes into play, Snaefell for example on the IOM might see some strong gusts even though Ophelia's windfield will be extratropical by the time it reaches there.
Not sure I'd want to experience the venturi effect in such an event as that!
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2 minutes ago, Stormhog said:
0600 ARPEGE covering peak wind gusts between now and 0600 Tuesday.
OOH! Bit of a sting in the tail there!
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1 minute ago, The PIT said:
Most people take the weather from junk news papers and having been subject scare stories over the years it basically goes in one eye and out of the other. Then saying that only person I met last night knew about the storm.
It's now getting the coverage on the news albeit a late in the day.
I confess, I expected to see more ramping.
I suspect that (Express excluded), when it started to be more certain in respect of landing in Ireland, the UK media lost interest. To be fair, I suspect most editors don't understand what extratropical transition means for wind fields, and looking at earlier model runs, it might well have been a sunny day in London... and none of them have cared that much for N. Ireland since the Good Friday Agreement. Sad, but True.
Now that there's a clear prospect of Gales in Kent, however...
(Or you could be more cynical, and suggest that they ramp up the storms less likely to do damage to sell papers, but the ones more likely are kind of ignored so that they can sensationalise the damage afterwards. That would explain the coverage too.)-
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Just now, Jo Farrow said:
The amber warning for NI runs for Monday afternoon well into the evening. Belfast, the ferries across to Britain. the S SSE winds directly hitting the Down coast at rush hour
That's going to be... expensive.
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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I expect a fair amount of research was done to establish this system. They didn't just think it up overnight!
a fair chunk of the public wouldn't see the train coming until they had been run over by it. Not much you can do about them!
I'm aware that a fair amount of research was done to establish this system... I was the first here to post about it in the Invest thread before it was even a depression so even a muggle such as myself has been following it for quite some time... but that doesn't mean that the precise impacts in various locations was known days ago, nor, indeed, necessarily now... hence the warning matrix of likelihood Vs impact.
As for people not knowing until it hits them... there'll be some, but frankly, once talk of it starts in the Valleys, it becomes the main gossip of the day. The risk of that is actually more that people dismiss it as gossip than people not knowing about it... but they'll still empty the fridge at the local co-op. -
Just now, Ukwoody said:
Crimsone, I think thats a bit unfair and condescending towards the lady in question!
Huh? Not sure I see how? I'm just recalling my experience of growing up in the S. Wales Valleys after all.
... and to be fair, though it sounds a bit mad, actually there's a little sense to it. Where I grew up especially, as we only had one road in and one road out (others often have one road in, and another over a mountain to the next valley or across the Heads of the Valleys). Essentially, if it looks like you might be stuck, and you know that people are going to mop up all the basics in the local shops, you tend to try to get there first, exacerbating the problem. -
2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
No I meant, what ever the warning system is, peoples perceptions have to be considered but not paralysing. Someone just said there are people who are unaware still that this event is coming. A yellow is still a warning of severe weather. I think that can sometimes be lost. The Met Office are still updating , an amber may well appear
In terms this lass from the Valleys believes that others from the Valleys would understand: The Met Office has a responsibility to ensure that there's bread on the shelves and milk in the fridges. It doesn't take a lot to kick off a panic buying spree.
Build into it, and people are used to the idea and take it more seriously. Go straight for the amber warning, and all hell breaks loose both before and after. -
So, we're about to see what I call "the Vince problem" again...
The main map on the NHC website only goes so far to the NE. Approximately 50N 10W.
I would expect them to stop issuing public forecasts as it approaches the South of Ireland. That, or they'll just keep Ophelia's symbol in the top right corner of the map.
Never thought I'd see that again.
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Just now, Fiona Robertson said:
But coastal Wales is getting the same as N Ireland and they're on an amber.
Evidently, the Met Office currently believes (at the time of the latest update, at least), that the event is more likely to severely impact N. Ireland than it is to impact Wales. :shrug:
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5 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:
Why the heck is Wales not on an amber warning?
The Met Office has a warning matrix which allows them to hedge their bets a little. Currently, the warning is of a relatively low probability of a high impact event for Wales.
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The disturbance is now invest 92L, 50% chance of development within 5 days, and 20% within 48h
Currently just NE of Puerto Rico. -
54 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
Wisemans Bridge is still looking like the best spot to watch this in South Wales to me. Strongest winds coincide with high tide almost perfectly. It is surprisingly hard to find someone who is up for going on a 500 mile round trip just to see some wind and big waves though, I don't particularly want to go alone.
It'd take a braver (or more stupid - your guess!) person than I to head to Wisemans Bridge with 15 ft waves forecast there... especially given possible track errors, and 30ft waves just around the corner. It's basically just a sea level car park, with a pub on it, and a tunneled walk through the cliffs to Saundersfoot.
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To be fair, I think it only right that the NHC takes the lead on warning about this. The Met Office is very, very experienced when it comes to extratropical cyclones.... they've been studying them for years as they're basically the bread and butter of UK weather. It's the NHC that has the expertise when it comes to hurricanes, and up until the point of transition, the NHC are probably best placed to forecase, with the Met Office taking advice from them for the time being...
... though that's not to say that the Met Office will have no input, of course. It's not as though they're clueless... thay just aren't the best available when it comes to the kind of systems the UK basically never sees (though they know our coast better than NHC, and have a better understanding ofg UK climactic conditions... not to mention that they have some of the best local tools available to them. They're getting a bloody good crash course in hurricanes right now though.-
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3 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:
I've been wondering about that. The latest GFS shows the strongest winds barreling up the Irish Sea and over Wales, just as bad as the ROI. ROI is on a red. Personally I'd rather be "over-warned" than "under-warned".
Great thing about the meto warning system is that it's adaptable. They can hedge a yellow warning on a very low probability of a high impact, or a very high probability of a low impact, for systems this far out...
... or, you know, depending on how cynical you are, it allows them to screw up and get away with it-
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A disturbance east of Barbuda may give us the next storm...
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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
Looks a little weaker prospect now but still packing a punch as the probabilities creep up
I still love that image. It's like the generator is programmed to say "Yeah, OK... most of the UK is, I guess, the ~remotest~ of possibilities for a tropical cyclone, but if you get to 1W or 60N and are still trying to claim there's a chance of a tropical storm wind field, you're REALLY taking the proverbial!"
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Just now, Jo Farrow said:
maybe one day it will
There are things we know we know, things we know we don't know, and excitingly, things we don't know that we don't know.
30 years before Ophelia reaching the UK, to the day, we discovered Sting Jets... and it was expensive, but awesome. -
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Just a thought,what info about Ophelia do we know if there is no recon flights?
Satellite observations (water vapour, various infra red showing the cloud layers and organisation... and cloud top temperature... wind speeds can be measured and subsequently estimated, dvorak estimates including size/shape/organisation observations... basically, there are lots of tools. Nothing replaces the pinpoint accuracy of recon data, but there's still a lot that we can tell.)
Then there's ship reports, weather buoys, and all sorts of other such things.-
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8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.
To be fair, it's looking worse and worse for the whole of Ireland. I suspect that if you had the track line turned on for that map, it's getting closer to running straight up the middle of Ireland.
.. and it's moving further and further east with each update.-
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Can I be the first to say.... Poor little Vila Do Porto!
It's not often that Santa Maria sees a hurricane, to be fair.-
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33 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
This whole "We've decided to name storms to increase public awareness and reduce confusion" business was a great idea in theory... but someone dropped the ball when they failed to realise that the British tabloid press existed.
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9 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation)
"Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph
The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday.
It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson
Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality
"Britain to be BATTERED by winds of up to 8 MpH!"
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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:
I don't think I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars nearby to Ireland/UK on a FAX chart. Potential for this to land at Category 1 strength that sounds surreal in itself.
That's one beautiful spiral front, there. Does it still count as a warm seclusion when it's trying to spread out into an extratropical cyclone rather than trying to contract inwards as a matter of maturity??
Hurricane Ophelia
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by crimsone
The direction isn't really all that abnormal. They do it along the US coast all the time.
What's abnormal about this one is that it formed so far to the north east of the atlantic. SSTs and the environment aloft don't usually support the formation of a major hurricane in this region. In fact, they've NEVER supported it, to the best of our knowledge.
It doesn't do what it likes though - none of them ever do. They are steered by highs, jets and troughs, as well as (to a lesser degree) conservation of angular momentum.
Edit: This link might help. Or might not. You decide. http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricanemovement/