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crimsone

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Posts posted by crimsone

    Hurricane Michael

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Nick L said:

    Can anyone shed any light on why this is getting virtually no media coverage? The BBC was all over Florence yet Michael doesn't get a single mention on their front page!

    I'll give it a go.

    I reckon that, with Florence, the warning was early, and the threat was clearer earlier. With Michael, I just don't think they've properly caught up and realised the implications.

    That, or nobody much cares about the Panhandle for some reason.

    Hurricane Florence

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by crimsone

    10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Its still a strong hurricane, especially for its latitude. However from what I've read the eyewall replacement cycle yesterday took longer then forecast allowing more dry air into the hurricane which weakened it a bit. Someone may stand to correct me.

    Apparently there was an upper level low near florida feeding it dry air, or so Brendan says.

    In any case, the sheer size of this storm, as well as a very unusual direction for landfall in this area, still makes this a very very dangerous hurricane.

    People tend to forget that the wind difference between Cat 3 and Cat 5 is primarily the intensity of a comparatively small area in the middle of the storm (and of course, potentially a difference in size, surge, etc....). If you're in the path of the eye, that's a pretty important difference... but for the vast majority of those affected by a hurricane falling onto a large landmass, it's the wider winfield that matters, and this thing is huge.

    In addition, it's huge, which means that, as it's coming towards the land directly from the sea (not skirting land at an oblique angle as per usual), it's pushing a considerable surge with it. It's also taking all that rain, and dumping it over land...so not only do you get 20 inches under the area of the CDO, but you get 15 inches around that area, and 10 inches further out from that.... basically, it dumps a biblical amount of rain, and then a slightly less biblical amount of rain just beyond that, saturating the ground, giving it nowhere to drain, and filling rivers from both ends.

    Even as a Category 2, Florence is pretty darned nasty.

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Florence

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

     

    But they must know the risks, they have been told about them surely, I still drink loads of alcohol even though I have quite serious liver damage.

    If they know the risks, then they are inviting death, and putting at risk those good people who would try to save them. Simple as that.

    That's not brave. There is no world in which that is brave. It's idiotic.

    The risks are in the graphics above.... they have a major hurricane bearing down on them, and they've basically been warned (if they've even bothered listening), that their island is likely going to be forcefully overwashed by sea, and battered by air.

    If they think "I know better so I'm not listening" then they're idiots. If they think "Well, it's only a chance that might happen" then they're idiots. If they think "If we're wrong, someone will save us and it'll be OK" then they're idiots.

    The information we have is out there for a reason.

    • Like 3

    Hurricane Florence

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    But maybe some (obviously not all) just love severe weather, does that same rule that applies to hurricane chasing also apply to tornado chasing.

    A cat 4 produces a storm surge of "greater than 6 feet above ground" for most of Ocracoke. Ocracoke is 3 feet asl.
     

    1599510954_ScreenShot2018-09-13at10_23_23.thumb.png.dc855c5485936aa8d755238627b40d67.png

    The word for when the sea does that to an island is "overwashing".

    Even a category 2 storm carries some pretty serious risks with it on Ocracoke....

    763405781_ScreenShot2018-09-13at10_24_00.thumb.png.5d65509fe891a57a423e0eb812ed5140.png


    Nobody loves severe weather so much that they actively choose to be killed by it... but to put the lives of those good people who would try to save them at risk too... well, that's selfishness of the highest degree.

    We're not talking about people that know all the risks, understand them, realise what the margin of error is, and have the knowledge and experience to mitigate that risk in order to stay safe. We're talking selfish idiots.

    Hurricane Florence

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by crimsone

    Quote

     

    Maths isn't my strong point but I get 0.1 for the answer.



    500 year storms (or 100 year storms) are so-called for the probability of their occurrence, so technically, if you wait long enough, 50 in 5 years is possible.

    I was just commenting that Harvey really wasn't all that long ago, with respect to biblical volumes of rainfall.

    Hurricane Florence

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Both GFS and ECMWF stall Florence around the Carolinas coastal areas through Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So although hurricane force winds and resultant storm surge  will be an issue at first with landfall, Florence may be remembered for its historic devastating rainfall from prolonged heavy rain. 

    How many 500 year storms can you even have in half a decade?

    Hurricane Florence

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    If that eye shrinks, the storm intensifies.

    If that eye shrinks too much, an outer eyewall can develop.

    If an outer eyewall develops, she undergoes an EWRC and de-intensifies... but does so at the cost of becoming a larger storm.

    After EWRC, it's then a question of whether she has the time and environmental conditions to reintensify.

    The bigger she is and the more intense she is, the worse it gets for the Carolinas.... not to mention Pittsburgh down the line (all that moisture has to be dumped somewhere once the storm's not intense enough to support it aloft, after all).

    Basically, there's no scenario in which this ends well as things stand.

    • Thanks 4
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