crimsone
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Posts posted by crimsone
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Mission 5 into ETA was aborted just as it got to the Yucatan. Mission 4 seems to have aborted after just 2 penetrations.
I wonder if those mesovortices are the reason... just too damned dangerous, perhaps. -
Huh. Apparently my page needed to refresh. I've missed this beauty of a vortex message (925mb, 7nm circular, closed)...
QuoteRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 137kts (~ 157.7mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the SSW (193°) from the flight level center at 2:18:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...MANY MESOVORTICES ROTATING ON INSIDE EYEWALL.
That same 0403z vortex message says:
Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (155.4mph) -
6 nautical mile closed eye with a pressure of 928mb.
Maximum surface wind inbound from the north was 142.7 MpH (124 kt), but that measurement is marked as suspect data. The did find 125 kt coming out again to the NE of the eye though, and that's not marked as suspect. Rain rate of 2 inches an hour under that area.
Interestingly, they found a suspect 130kt out to the south of the eye, and likewise, a suspect 135kt. The data may be questionable, but it's still interesting.... and they're still going.
Despite the 10pm (EST) update some 45 mins ago calling it a strong CAT 4, I think I'm about ready to call this one Cat 5. It's not far from it. -
Live Atlantic Recon Mapped in Cesium - Tropical Atlantic
TROPICALATLANTIC.COMView the latest hurricane reconnaissance in the North Atlantic basin mapped in Cesium.Recon is going in. They're currently just past the Yucatan Peninsula, heading into Eta.
I actually fancy that the storm might be jogging a little south. This is potentially good and bad. It's a little less populated further south, but on the other hand, it's harder to get to. Not that that'll make a jot of difference to the effect of the rain... but what it would do, owing to the slow forward motion of the storm and the shape of the coast, is give it a little bit longer over the water. -
Impressive eye on this thing. Very impressive.
And a horror show.
This is a high-end Cat 4 stalling over one of the poorest regions of the western hemisphere, prone to landslides and already subject to soil erosion, water pollution, and deforestation. 10 years ago, 80% of people survived on $2 a day, with most of the indigenous population living on only half of that.
The winds will be only half the story. When something like this stalls over central America... well, think Mitch, and pray that it's not.
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4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
Not sure of translation, who is getting evacuated but https://twitter.com/CDNN23Nicaragua mention evacuations by military https://twitter.com/EjercitoNic/status/1323381155991818242
Apparently, the community of Wawa has been evacuated, about 18km SW / SSW of Puerto Cabazas according to another tweet of theirs. Likewise, they seem to have evacuated/be evacuating/offering evacuation (to) the Miskitos people, An indigenous people for whom Awastara is a major center and historical site.
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Oh crap. Well this was unexpected 12 hours ago.
The latest has it landfalling as a high-end cat 4 in what, surely, is one of the slowest landfalling hurricanes of that category we've seen.
This has all the potential to be utterly devastating. Worst of both possible worlds. The track has it landfalling somewhere between/over Puerto Cabezas (which was devastated by the retired Hurricane Felix) and Awastara.
Total population of the North Caribbean Autonomous Region (basically, the top-right 20% of Nicaragua) is about 500,000.
We don't retire greek names to the best of my knowledge, but if we did, this forecast is asking for such a retirement.-
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As of the very recent NHC update, we now have Hurricane Eta at 65kt intensity. Further intensification to 95kt is forecast prior to an ~incredibly~ slow motion landfall in Nicaragua.
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I'm not sure if one is caused by the other, or if it's all just pointing in the same direction by horrible coincidence this year, but with methane concentrations 400 times above equilibrium, the release of clathrates can only be adding to the situation in Siberia, even if just locally.
'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find | Climate change | The Guardian
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COMExclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered -
Still a TS just now, but after this 28th named storm equalling the record set in 2005, we're in record setting territory.
Looks, on this forecast, like it might be a nasty little rainmaker over Central America, where whatever it lacks in intensity it'll make up for in lack of forward motion.
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21 minutes ago, Lauren said:
When he was driving through the surge you could see his car getting taken by the water. He's lucky he found that spot when he did as the car was about to get swept away
He was just on the phone with "Oh yeah. Just been lookin at the storm surge. I'll be there in just a few minutes".
He wasn't.
Just looking at his follow up video (I think his signal cut out some hours into his drive in the dark through storm surge/debris country)...
What he finds at 7min 10sec explains perfectly why he's been a fool. I can't deny that it's darned interesting though.
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It was at this moment that he realised, he screwed up. Not catastrophically, mind you, but there's nowhere to go. The Gulf of Mexico is lapping at his parking ramp in the middle of the eye of a hurricane, and there's nowhere to go. I'm sure he'll be fine, but he's pretty stuck at this point. Thank god he made it there.
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QuoteSo, that guy is basically driving through the GoM right now. Not convinced he meant for that to happen. oops.
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Recon just penetrated from the north and found a surface wind of 94kts. Dropsonde found a pressure of 960mb.
The core is now approaching the edge of the coastal shelf proper, currently exactly due south of the LA/TX coastal border. -
Recon has just found a pressure of 957mb, measured a strongest surface wind at 100kt in the NE eye, and found the eye to be 30nm and open to the south.
Delta is not currently intensifying. It may be getting bigger, but it's not gaining power. Not as yet anyway. the window for further intensification is closing quickly now. -
Somewhat sobering observation here:
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So, less of an observation and more of a genuine meteorological question here.
Despite the second bout of really quite rapid intensification, Delta has really struggled to form a coherent eye on both occasions. Before Cancun it managed a really tight 4nm eye it never cleared, and it left the peninsular without one at all. Now it's got one again, at 30nm, open southeast.
Usually by now a hurricane of this strength has formed a well defined eye and cleared it for a decent duration. What gives?
Edit: Looks like there was a brief appearance of the eye on visible satellite for a couple of hours just recently, albeit ragged, but the question still stands. What's special about Delta's situation in respect of the eye? -
NHC pre-recon estimation of the strength following the Yucatan Peninsula appears to be on the generous side, as they've suggested. Recon recently went through finding a pressure of 980mb, and peak surface winds in the N of 70kt, and a slightly more dubious reading of around 60kt in the NE quadrant.
They found no eye for their vortec message, and I can't find much sign of one on the satellite either, but it's still got a decent CDO, and some decent spiral banding.
It's got a little bit of reorganisation to do, and from what little I can see, it's attempting to do it. -
We have landfall. According to NHC, it's crossing over near Puerto Morelos, landfalling at 1030z with sustained winds estimated at 110 mph, and a pressure of 972mb.
That's category 2 for now, and we'll see how it fares over the land once it emerges back over the GoM. -
31 minutes ago, joggs said:
Any update on the development side of things?. Thanks.
The central pressure is up. If that 4nm wide eye underwent a replacement cycle, the replacement didn't show up in time. It's possibly back down to Cat 2, but officially it's still a 3.
What's happened here is, clearly, I finally started paying attention to it and it stopped developing.-
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I just kind of feel like Louisiana doesnt need this again.
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An eyewall of 4 miles, hey?
So, what's the technical difference between a hurricane like this and a very large tornado, apart from origin?
Again, I turned my back for half a day. There must be some kind of record here? -
Wait.... did this thing jump 2 categories while I was looking away?
Hurricane Eta
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Recon is getting ready to give it another go...