crimsone
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Posts posted by crimsone
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9 minutes ago, matty40s said:
Ahhhh.... mission 12 seemed to end early, and I thought mission 13 was replacing it, but I see it flew back to base in Texas.
I see an untasked mission is now flying out of Florida. One of the Orions. -
Sonde found 950mb at 0641z
Edit: (sorry - sonde was launched 0612z... must have been reading the report time)
Mission 12 seems to be bugging out. A mission 13 is leaving Texas. -
HDOBs just extrapolated a surface pressure of 954mb.
13mb in 4 hours certainly seems like RI, We'll have to see what the vortec message says when we get one.
Edit: A sonde dropped in the center has found 955mb. Still no vortex message as yet. -
0034z - 967mb by last recon flight.
New recon heading in now. -
What's actually causing this rain in Australia?
Just took a brief look at the synoptics over the Tasman, and all I see is a relatively innocent looking trough over the NSW.
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Genuinely awful, but in some ways an incredible achievement to keep the death toll so low.
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That's one scary system.
899 hPa!
https://twitter.com/WeatherWatchNZ/status/1339314230655270912
Special mention of the 12m wave heights, of course. This region of the world typically has quite calm seas.
Yasa will likely make landfall today. Possibly later this afternoon, or possibly tonight, NZ time, clearing the two main islands by the following morning. Landfall might be a relative term - the center of the eye could yet pass right between the two main islands. The JTWC path has a direct hit on Vanua Levu (the northernmost large island), crossing over its southernmost region.
Pre-posting edit: Slightly out of date video from NZ's WeatherWatch here (Literally just published, and yet already the cyclone's dropped to sub-900). Gives a good broad overview:Fiji radar currently looking grim, with the heavy outer bands currently lashing it down over the two main islands and the eye creeping in to the left of frame.
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5 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:
I can see Zazu on Southern Pacific cyclone name list (two beyond Wiki), but where has Yasa come from?
Yasa is on the list of the south pacific names - page 20
https://wmoomm.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/wmocpdb/ETLwxbvAV9tMp0igLsaSE-ABrcKpHtUom1djMugRwue9Ew?e=W52WRj
Edit 11:38 : - Is it just me that finds South Pacific naming odd? Why does it run backwards?-
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Wow. Some damn cold cloudtops there.
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Yasa has made it to Category 5.
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Looks like after Fiji (seemingly a major landfall for this storm), anything else depends on how this ridge weakens, or doesn't as the case may be.
It might dodge left and weaken towards northwestern Australia or run through the Tasman Sea, or it could head straight down south and give NZ's Northland region a bad day. The thing I'm finding interesting with this storm (and crossing my fingers that things don't get too bad for Fiji here), is how finicky the steering of it is.-
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Ouch! this one's a nasty little sod compared with most down here in the South.
Mid level vapour:
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This system's cyclogenesis, it must be said, was particularly stunning.
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Just off Fiji, a new cyclone was born today. From what little I've so far read, it seems to be expected to hang around in the general area and build to around Cat 3 before heading south with a 40% chance of significantly impacting NZ while undergoing transition to post-tropica some time around Christmasl.
On the other hand, there's always the HWRF take on the storm...
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And there it is. We have a new record for most named storms in a season.
Named storm #29 - Theta.
It's actually a sub-tropical storm at the time of posting, and was born out of a frontal system. NHC expect it to go fully tropical in 24h.
Will it get to Portugal? Time will tell.-
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5 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:
So, yet again, it's a case of "watch out, Portugal!"
This has happened too often for comfort in recent years. The world's changing. -
Eta has emerged from Central America and is just over the water east of the Belize coast as a TD. NHC seem touch and go on whether it's maintained a LLC however, but for now it's still Eta.
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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:
I do love your 'Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum' sig, Crimsone!
Riffing off your signature since 2004/5, Pete
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1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:
The NHC public forecast - NHC "isolated maximum storm totals of 40" (1000mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Cayman islands 30" (760mm) and Jamaica 15" (380mm) ."
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~Three and a third~ feet!?
Bleedin 'eck. -
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It's only a tropical depression now, with (according to NHC - I haven't looked) no meaningful convection over the center... and it's still over the highlands of Central America. It may emerge as a post-tropical depression. It may yet retain none of its former distinct circulation by the time it re-emerges.
It seems clear that something will happen when it gets back into the Caribbean, but whether that something is tropical or sub-tropical, Eta or Theta, ... well, we'll just have to wait and see.
(Just looked, and NHC have it as post tropical/remnant low at 36hr. So, erm... yeah. That.) -
Random inappropriately timed fact.
Hurricane Eta is the 28th named storm of the season, matching the record set for storms which meet naming criteria in 2005. However, 2005 gave us a subtropical storm in the Azores during early October which wasn't classified as a subtropical storm until the post-season analysis, and so it went un-named at the time. Consequently, Hurricane Eta (2020) is the first use of this greek name despite not setting the record for most named storms in the season.
Meanwhile, back to reality....
http://weather.com//articles/assets/favicon-96x96.e407ed.png Hurricane Eta Brings Widespread Damage to Nicaragua, Honduras; Girl's Death Blamed on Storm | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
WEATHER.COMEta, a strong Category 4 hurricane, has ripped off roofs and toppled trees. Flooding has struck several areas in Central America. -...Eta has created devastating flooding in Honduras, even before the eye got anywhere near land in Nicaragua to the south. It has reportedly claimed a life there. There's a whole lot more rain to come - like dumping half a bucket of water over the ground, except the bucket is the size of a small country.
From NHC:QuoteRAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning:
Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).
Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm).
Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.The hurricane weakens so quickly after this point owing not just to the lack of ocean beneath it, but to the mountainous terrain in its path after landfall - it's going to get shredded, but that only means that the land it gets shredded on gets drenched. The disaster that is about to unfold could be truly epic in proportion.
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An apparent massive drop in pressure (938mb), but still reporting a closed pinhole eye (8nm).
Surface winds seem to have dropped significantly too. Given the 4am est discussion from NHC, I can only guess that it tried to undergo/underwent an EWRC.
In any case, given its center just off the coast, the fact that it's apparently a slightly-less-devastating devastating thing is positive, but maybe not as meaningful as to be described as fortuitous. -
8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
What a gut wrenching satellite picture this morning
Terrifying. There's two inches an hour precip under parts of that. Perhaps more. And wind wise, it's a bit like a tornado so big and powerful it's turning the sky.
Bit of a nightmare forecasting-wise from here, too. The cone of uncertainty is, well, deeply uncertain.
Hurricane Ida
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by crimsone
Yes. The one flying out of Florida.
